Analyst: Fed’s Hawkish Shift Limits Powell’s Options for Rate Cuts

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Fed news from the April meeting minutes reveals a shift in the central bank’s stance, with updated language highlighting the need to maintain rates longer due to persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Analyst Eamonn Sheridan notes that inflation is expanding beyond energy into shipping, airfares, and agriculture, complicating Powell’s preference for rate cuts, as a more hawkish committee may delay any action. The options market currently prices in the possibility of a rate hike by late 2026 if inflation remains elevated. Fed developments and market signals suggest FOMC communications may become more volatile as Powell’s leadership continues to evolve.

Odaily Planet Daily reports: Eamonn Sheridan, an analyst at the U.S. financial website InvestingLive, noted that the Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes reveal a clear shift in the Fed’s stance. Previously used language emphasizing a “flexible and swift” response based on economic data has been replaced with new phrasing: persistently high inflation, combined with uncertainty regarding the economic impact of the ongoing Iran conflict, may mean that policy needs to remain on hold longer than previously anticipated.

Chairman Walsh faces inflationary pressures that extend beyond just energy. Officials note that elevated fuel costs are gradually being passed on to shipping rates, airfare, and fertilizer prices, spreading inflationary pressure across a broader range of sectors. This传导 effect makes it harder to view inflation as temporary and provides hawkish officials with more sustained justification for maintaining high interest rates or even raising them further.

The market currently expects that if inflation fails to decline, the Fed may resume rate hikes by late 2026 or early 2027. Waugh himself favors rate cuts, but this stance could create potential friction with a committee that is increasingly leaning hawkish; as Waugh’s leadership style becomes more apparent, this dynamic may intensify volatility in FOMC communications. (Cnfinance)

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