Analyst: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Drives Sell Pressure, Further Gains Face Loss-Driven Risks

According to ChainCatcher, Crypto Quant analyst Axel posted an analysis stating that data shows approximately 35,400 profit-making bitcoins flowed into centralized exchanges (CEX) in the past 24 hours, the highest level in nearly two months. Meanwhile, the outflow of losing positions was extremely low, at only about 4,600 bitcoins. The profit/loss outflow ratio was approximately 7.5:1. Profit-taking behavior is clearly dominant, with very little panic selling. Axel explained that high profit-taking in the context of a very low loss rate is a logical market behavior. Investors who bought in the $85,000–$92,000 range are taking the opportunity of the price approaching their cost basis to lock in profits. This flow structure indicates that profit-taking is the main source of market selling pressure, which is fundamentally different from panic selling driven by loss positions. Once the profit/loss ratio reverses (i.e., loss-driven selling becomes dominant), a bearish scenario will intensify, although this is not a necessary condition. The charts present a coherent picture: the loss rate has narrowed to its lowest level, and precisely at this point, profit-taking activity has become active. The price is testing the cost benchmark area and is facing high supply pressure from profit positions.