Odaily Planet Daily reports: Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on X that the Fed’s interest rate decision for this month will be announced at 2:00 AM Thursday local time. Currently, futures markets indicate a 99% probability of no change, and for next month’s meeting, the market assigns a 97% probability of no change, suggesting the Fed’s impact on markets over the past two months may remain relatively limited. Bitcoin is currently trading around $74,000, with the Fear & Greed Index at neutral.
1. Hawkish Signal: If the dot plot indicates only one or even zero rate cuts in 2026, market expectations will decline, liquidity will tighten, and BTC is highly likely to retest the $68,000 support level.
2. Doveish surprise: If Powell mentions "inflation under control" or "monitoring the labor market," improved liquidity expectations will directly push the price toward the $800,000 level.
3. X Factor: Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominated potential chair, has policy preferences that are harder to discern than Powell’s. Markets fear most a “policy vacuum” or a shift to a hawkish leadership. Ahead of the April meeting, institutional funds may opt for risk-off positioning, leading to sharp volatility in altcoins.