ChainThink reports that on March 18, on-chain data analyst Axel released a new research report stating that the overheating in the Bitcoin market has been fully resolved, but selling pressure remains unresolved, and no clear reversal signal has yet emerged.
The report shows that the MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin’s valuation overheating, has dropped 74% from its cycle high of 2.603 in October 2025 to 0.674—well below the mean (1.72) and the first standard deviation band (3.55), confirming that the valuation bubble has been fully erased. The current range of 0.5–1.0 corresponds to a cycle-neutral zone, with market capitalization only modestly exceeding the realized capitalization.
However, the aSOPR (7-day moving average), which reflects the profitability of market participants, has remained below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, with the latest value at 0.9926, indicating that the market is still experiencing loss-making sales. Since last crossing above 1.0 on January 21, 2026, this indicator has failed to return to the profitable selling zone.
Axel emphasized that 1.0 is the critical threshold distinguishing loss-making from profit-taking behavior. Until aSOPR can consistently remain above 1.0 for multiple trading days, any rally may face selling pressure. The key question in today’s market is not whether Bitcoin is cheap, but whether selling pressure has been exhausted—at least for now, the answer remains no.