Cryptocurrency analytics company GreeksLive has analyzed Bitcoin’s recent price movements and the outlook for the options market.
According to the company’s analysis, the Deribit Bitcoin index fell as low as $70,992 during the day, but the price is currently trading around the psychological $70,000 level, which is closely watched by investors.
GreeksLive noted that the $70,000 level is not only a psychological threshold but also a critical area with significant open positions in the options market. The implied volatility (IV) of short-term at-the-money (ATM) options, i.e., those with a strike price closest to the current market price, is around 30 percent. The absence of a sharp, panic-driven rise in volatility indicates that the market is not pricing in a one-way collapse, but rather is awaiting a new breakout that will determine the direction.
GreeksLive: “Concentration Around $70,000 in Bitcoin”
The company noted that before last month’s option expiry, the $72,000 level represented a significant cluster of gamma exposure (GEX), but after expiry, this concentration shifted to the $70,000 strike price. This situation, it was stated, made the $70,000 level both a significant support point and a defensive line where short positions and hedging put options were concentrated.
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According to options data, put options have higher implied volatility levels, and the skew indicator shows a downward trend. GreeksLive stated that this reveals investors are willing to pay a higher premium against the risk of a decline and that defensive positioning continues in the market.
On the upside, attention was drawn to the “buying wall” structure concentrated around the $80,000, $90,000, and $100,000 levels. The company noted that strong positions in long-term call options were being maintained, indicating continued medium- to long-term bullish expectations, but stressed the need to protect the $70,000 level in the short term.
According to GreeksLive, Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory will largely depend on this level. Analysts believe that if the $70,000 support holds, implied volatility could decrease and a recovery in the spot market could begin. Conversely, a break below this level with high trading volume could increase demand for hedging put options, potentially raising short-term volatility and causing the price to fall towards the $68,000-$65,000 region.
*This is not investment advice.
Continue Reading: Analysis Firm Says: “$70,000 Could Be Bitcoin’s Last Line of Defense” – Options Analysis Is In