Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US Stocks: AMD's "Earnings Disaster" Ignites Tech Stocks
The main character today is AMDIts financial report triggered a bloodbath in tech stocks.
The financial report looks quite good on the surface:
- Q4 revenue of $1.027 billion, exceeding the expected $967 million
- Adjusted EPS of $1.53, exceeding the expected $1.32
- Q1 guidance: $9.8 billion (±$0.3 billion), which is also slightly above the expected $9.38 billion
But why is the market so angry?
The problem is not the numbers, it's inExpected dropSome Wall Street analysts expected AMD to provide more aggressive guidance, after all, the AI craze is in full swing. When the guidance was "just slightly better than expected" rather than "far exceeding expectations," the market chose to vote with its feet.
More deadly is:Out of control operating expensesAMD's operating expenses exceeded the guidance by $200 million, marking another consecutive quarter of overruns.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur was blunt: "AMD has been 'overpaying,' which is hurting profitability."
Chain reaction leads to AMD plunges 17%; Broadcom down 7%; Micron down 11%; Lam Research down 10%; Applied Materials down 9%; NVIDIA down 3%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummets sharply, the entire chip sector is slaughtered.
The nightmare in the software sector continues. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) fell another 4% today,Plummeted 17% in a week.
The root of the panic lies in the release last week by Anthropic of an AI automation tool capable of handling legal work. This suddenly made the market realize: AI is not just an assistant to software, but could be the end of software.
If AI can automatically handle legal documents, automatically generate code, and automatically manage customer relationships, can the business models of subscription-based SaaS companies still be sustained?
Not all tech stocks are crashing, there are also winners today:
Eli Lilly surges 8%: Q4 earnings far exceed expectations; 2026 guidance: revenue $80-83 billion (expectation $77.6 billion), EPS $33.5-35 (expectation $33.23); weight-loss drug Zepbound sales grow 122%, diabetes drug Mounjaro grows 110%.
Super Micro Computer Rises 10%: Q2 Earnings Exceed Expectations, Raises Full-Year Guidance to $40 Billion (vs. $36.1 Billion Expected); Strong AI Server Demand
Amgen rises 3.67%: Strong earnings report drives healthcare sector to become one of the few safe havens today.
Uber falls 5%; Chipotle plummets 6%, these two data points once again confirm: American consumers are tightening their wallets.
Cryptocurrency: Falls below $74,000, 16-month low
This afternoon, Bitcoin fell below $73,000 at one point, hitting a new low since November 2024.
Ethereum falls below $2,200.
Why did Bitcoin fall even worse than tech stocks?
Bitcoin has a very high correlation with the Nasdaq. When AMD triggered a crash in chip stocks and the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, Bitcoin, as the "king of risk assets," naturally fell even more.
Interestingly, those mining companies that have transitioned to AI infrastructure also crashed today:
Cipher Mining fell over 10%; IREN fell over 10%; Hut 8 fell over 10%.
Reason? AMD's plunge has led the market to begin questioning the return on investment for AI infrastructure, as these companies just shifted from "mining" to "AI computing power" and immediately encountered concerns about a bursting AI bubble.
The only bright spot, TeraWulf rises 12% due to the acquisition of two U.S. industrial lands, but this is an exception.
Hasegawa from Japan's crypto analytics company Bitbank said, "70,000 dollars may be a key reference point for the short-term bottom. A substantial break below this level may require a major market reset."
Precious metals: Gold breaks through $5,000, momentum strong
Gold continues rebound, breaking through the $5000 level
Physical gold closed at around 5,010-5,050 USD/ounce, with another increase of 2%+ on the day. This is a continued rebound following yesterday's surge of 6% (the largest single-day increase since 2008).
Silver continues to surge wildly, the increase reached 7%, returning above $85.
Why can gold continue to rebound?
Gold fell more than 20% from $5,600 last Friday to $4,400 on Monday. This crash cleaned out leverage and also created a buying opportunity.
Long-term investors and central banks are buying the dip. Continuing to rise today after a 6% surge yesterday indicates very determined buying.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell today, providing support for gold. The yuan rose to a 2.5-year high against the dollar, also reflecting the broad weakness of the dollar.
The long-term goal of gold remains unchanged.
Mainstream Wall Street institutions are still bullish:
JPMorgan: Year-end target of $6,300
- Deutsche Bank: Year-end target of $6,000
Currently near 5,000 US dollars, there is still a 20%+ upside potential.
The Deep Logic of the Market: Concerns about an AI Bubble Burst?
Today's market trend reveals a core issue:The commercial monetization speed of AI is far behind the growth of capital expenditures.
AMD's problem is not that its revenue growth is not fast enough (a 26% year-over-year increase is already very strong), but rather thatCost out of controlTo stay competitive in the AI race, AMD is spending money recklessly, but the market is beginning to question: will this money bring corresponding returns?
If even core AI chip players like AMD can't control costs, can downstream AI application companies, software companies, and infrastructure companies make money?
Key events remaining this week
Thursday-Friday:
- Alphabet (Google) Earnings Report
- Amazon financial report
- Initial applications for unemployment benefits (Thursday)
- U.S.-Iran Talks (Friday)
If Google/Amazon's earnings reports fall short of expectations, tech stocks may further crash.
If the US-Iran talks collapse and geopolitical risks escalate, gold will rise further.