Galaxy research head Alex Thorn has lowered his probability estimate for the Clarity Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%. He noted that while the bill has already passed committee with a 15-9 vote, the Senate’s legislative calendar remains the primary obstacle. The bill must pass before Congress adjourns for summer recess at the end of July, as its chances of passing in the fall would diminish otherwise. Additionally, ethical provisions remain unresolved, requiring support from at least nine Democratic lawmakers. He remains cautious about the bill’s prospects after the September recess.
Alex Thorn Lowers the Probability of Clarity Act Passage to 60%
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Summary
Galaxy’s Alex Thorn now estimates the odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 at 60%, down from 75%. The bill passed its committee vote 15–9 but is facing scheduling delays in the Senate. It must be enacted by late July or risk being delayed. Nine Democratic senators are needed for passage, and ethical concerns remain unresolved. Thorn remains cautiously optimistic following the September recess. Meanwhile, CFTC compliance pressures and MiCA’s rollout in the EU are adding regulatory complexity for crypto firms.
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