Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
The previous article on World Cup quarterfinal predictions saw six AIs all favoring France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance. After the four matches were played, all four semifinal spots were correctly predicted by the AIs.
France advanced most comfortably; although Mbappé missed a penalty, he later delivered a goal and an assist to help France eliminate Morocco 2-0. Spain once again sealed a last-minute winner, with Merino scoring in the 88th minute to defeat Belgium 2-1. The other two matches went to extra time: Bellingham scored twice to help England come back and win 2-1 against Norway; Argentina, facing a man-down Switzerland, only secured their advancement with two goals in the final moments of extra time, winning 3-1.
Similarly, to more effectively participate in the semifinal prediction market, I asked the same six AI models—ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok—to predict the regular-time outcome (win/draw/loss), the score, and whether the match would go into extra time or a penalty shootout.
However, in the semifinals, the predictions from the six AIs showed clear divergence. In France vs. Spain, five AIs favored France to advance, all predicting a 2:1 scoreline; in England vs. Argentina, the分歧 was greatest—with three AIs supporting England and three backing Argentina—and there was no consensus on whether the match would go to extra time or even a penalty shootout.
Five AIs predict France will defeat Spain 2-1; only Gemini favors Spain advancing.
The first semifinal of this World Cup is France vs. Spain, scheduled for 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 15. PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Semifinal: France vs. Spain" prediction event, the probability of France winning is currently 42%, a draw is 30%, and Spain winning is 30%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, France's advancement probability is 60%, while Spain's is 40%.
These are the two most defensively solid teams in this World Cup. France has not conceded a goal since entering the knockout stage, and Spain has only been breached once throughout the entire tournament. However, the two teams win in very different ways. Spain controls the pace through possession and high pressing, while France excels at quick transitions, using the speed and individual skill of their forward players to create direct threats.
Of the six AIs, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen all predicted France to advance. Additionally, five of the models forecasted the score as France 2-1 Spain. Although Spain may control more possession, their fullbacks pushing high could leave significant space behind. Facing Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olszewski, France doesn’t need prolonged attacks—just a few well-timed transitions could be enough to change the game.
ChatGPT's assessment of the match progression is more specific, believing France will take the lead first with a counterattack, Spain will equalize in the second half, then continue pressing for an attack, only to be caught on the counter by France exploiting the space behind their defense for a late winner. Although Claude considers the possibility of the match going to extra time, it ultimately agrees with Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen in predicting France will win 2-1 in regular time.
Gemini is the only one to pick Spain, predicting a 1:1 draw after 120 minutes, with Spain advancing through a penalty shootout. Gemini’s key insight is not whether Spain can dominate France offensively, but that Spain can minimize transitions by maintaining possession, thereby reducing France’s greatest threat: counterattacks.
As long as Spain doesn’t concede an early goal, they have a chance to settle into their familiar rhythm. Although France possesses explosive players like Mbappé and Dembélé, they will struggle to find much open space against Spain’s midfield control; meanwhile, France has not conceded a single goal in the knockout stage, making it equally difficult for Spain to break through in a structured attack. Therefore, Gemini’s analysis suggests the match may remain low-scoring for an extended period, with both teams capitalizing on one opportunity each before heading to a penalty shootout.
Therefore, whether Gemini can be the only AI to correctly predict Spain’s advancement is another major highlight of this match. In contrast, the other semifinal match—England vs. Argentina—shows much greater divergence, with all six AIs failing to reach a consensus on the advancement outcome.
English and Arabic advancement predictions are evenly split, with differing opinions on whether the match will go to extra time or penalties.
The second semifinal of this World Cup is England vs. Argentina, scheduled for 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 16. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, England has a 37% chance of winning, a 33% chance of a draw, and Argentina has a 32% chance of winning. Including extra time and penalties, England’s probability of advancing is 55%, while Argentina’s is 45%.
This match is harder to predict than those between France and Spain. Both teams played 120 minutes in their previous matches: England came back to defeat Norway in extra time, and Argentina only secured victory over Switzerland in the final moments of extra time. Fatigue, the condition of key players, and match tempo could all influence the final outcome.
For the predictions of the six AI models, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen support England; ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favor Argentina.
The side supporting England places greater emphasis on physicality, set pieces, and attacking intensity. Both Grok and DeepSeek predict England will win 2-1 in regular time, while Qwen offers a more aggressive forecast of 2-0. England’s current attack is heavily concentrated on Kane and Bellingham, who have accounted for the vast majority of the team’s goals, with Bellingham stepping up to solve critical problems in each of the last two knockout matches. According to these models, England can apply sustained pressure through high pressing, crosses, and set pieces to secure a victory within 90 minutes.
Argentine supporters place greater faith in knockout experience. Gemini predicts Argentina will advance 2-1 in regular time, believing Messi’s playmaking and clutch scoring ability remain sufficient to decide matches at this level. Claude’s assessment is more conservative, suggesting the match is likely to be a low-scoring stalemate, with a 1-1 draw in regular time possible and a higher probability of going to extra time compared to the first match, ultimately favoring Argentina’s advancement. ChatGPT projects the match directly to a penalty shootout, predicting a 1-1 draw in regular time, with neither side pushing aggressively in extra time, and Argentina ultimately eliminating England 4-3 on penalties thanks to Emiliano Martínez and greater penalty experience.
In the previous round, AIs showed high consistency in predicting the quarterfinals and correctly guessed all outcomes. In the semifinals, predictions split into one area of consensus and one area of disagreement. Can France break through Spain’s possession-based system, and will England and Argentina clash into a penalty shootout? This time, whose prediction is more trustworthy?
Note:Join the PPP signal push communityto stay ahead and seize the advantage.
Recommended reading:
Predicting World Cup knockout matches: such a big difference in AI performance?
《The World Cup Round of 16 Is About to Begin—Which Teams Did AI Predict Would Advance?》