Odaily Planet Daily report: Stanford Graduate School of Business professor and a16z & Meta advisor Andy Hall posted on X that his team has created a new dataset focused on political prediction markets, liquidity, and settlement rules. The research found that the vast majority of political contracts in prediction markets lack activity, with only 1.3% possessing sufficient liquidity. Kalshi and Polymarket rarely list identical contracts with the same rules, further fragmenting liquidity.
Andy Hall proposed four improvements: First, list contracts on core issues and collaborate with independent institutions to define markets of societal concern; second, pay market makers to inject initial liquidity into political markets; third, introduce AI agents to trade in areas where humans are not involved, generating price references needed by society; fourth, establish unified definitions and settlement rules across platforms. Andy Hall believes these measures will attract traders seeking to hedge political risk, transforming prediction markets into the truth machine society needs.