According to PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, four smart money addresses have collectively invested $13,400 on the "No" option for "Will the U.S. escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz before March 31?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 20%.
According to the settlement rules, the market will settle as "Yes" if the U.S. military or federal government officially announces, prior to March 31 Eastern Time, that they will be, are, or have been escorting any commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Escorting means U.S. military or government personnel providing accompanying or active protective surveillance for specific commercial vessels or convoys; personnel do not need to board the vessels and may operate via independent warships or aerial assets.
The U.S. military has ordered the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship to deploy to the Middle East, with an expected arrival by the end of this month. Although Trump previously stated that the U.S. would provide escort for vessels passing through if necessary, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently made it clear in a public interview that the United States is currently “completely unprepared” to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Note: Based on its past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather takes profit or cuts losses at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708
0xbf961d0c79db0bf55050cadc0995835f09c09942
0x1b5655739e33491a3d831bcb51e2c74e0501715e
0x2120ea0323fcf5446233056467fdb852b4b12647
Total investment: $13.4k
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4 smart money addresses bet $13.4K on the 'No' outcome for U.S. escorting merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz by March 31.
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Summary
CFT-related tensions remain elevated as four smart money addresses bet $13.4K on the 'No' outcome for the U.S. escorting merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz by March 31 on Polymarket. The 'Yes' outcome currently carries a 20% probability. The market resolves as 'Yes' if the U.S. government officially announces such plans. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the ship 'Tripoli' are scheduled to arrive in the region later this month. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated the U.S. is 'not at all ready' for the operation, contradicting earlier remarks. Risk-on assets continue to face pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty.
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