Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
No confidentiality requested! No full liquidation! The fund Situational Awareness LP, led by new “AI stock guru” Leopold Aschenbrenner, officially filed its 13F form this evening.
- Odaily note: For details on Leopold Aschenbrenner's personal story, see "SBF's Protégé: Turned $225 Million into $5.5 Billion in One Year".
This means that the first hypothesis in our article “The Fastest Outcome of the Day Revealed: The Entire Internet Waits for the 24-Year-Old ‘AI Stock God’s’ Version Answer” was correct—Situational Awareness LP completed its submission only near the late deadline on May 15, causing the SEC to fail to post the document on its website that day, and thus the market had to endure another weekend until the SEC resumed operations this Monday and disclosed the fund’s holdings.
According to this latest 13F filing, as of March 31, 2026, the total notional value of Situational Awareness LP's positions has increased to $13.7 billion, more than doubling from $5.52 billion as of December 31, last year (148%).
- Odaily note: It should be noted that in the reporting methodology of U.S. 13F filings, the market value of options assets is typically shown as the “notional value” of the underlying stocks, rather than the actual premium cost paid by the fund. This means that although the fund has constructed a semiconductor hedge with hundreds of billions of dollars in notional exposure, its actual cash outlay (maximum potential loss) is significantly lower, representing a classic high-leverage macro hedge.
In addition, net inflows into the Situational Awareness LP accounted for 32.51% of the fund’s total holdings this quarter, indicating that the fund’s significant growth was not only due to portfolio appreciation but also substantial new external capital inflows.
Making aggressive portfolio adjustments
The document also shows that Situational Awareness LP made significant portfolio adjustments in the first quarter of this year.
- New Purchases: 23 stocks (including options);
- Added To: 9 stocks;
- Sold out of: 10 stocks (including options);
- Reduced holdings in: 4 stocks (including options).
New: Sixty percent position hedged against semiconductor decline
- Odaily note: The chart above only covers new entries with a value exceeding $100 million; all 23 new entries can be viewed by clicking the "portal."
First, let’s examine the new positions, which represent the most striking information in the entire Situational Awareness LP 13F report—the fund implemented a systematic risk hedge against the AI semiconductor and computing hardware sectors through large-scale put options positions in the first quarter.
Looking directly at the data:
- SMH PUT (VanEck Semiconductor Sector ETF Put Option): 14.94% allocation ($2.04 billion market value) — largest new position;
- NVDA PUT (NVIDIA Put Option): 11.47% allocation ($1.56 billion market value) — second largest new position;
- ORCL PUT (Oracle Put Option):占比 7.84%；
- AVGO PUT (Broadcom Put): 7.36%;
- AMD PUT (AMD Put Option):占比 7.09%;
Just the top five put positions listed above account for 48.7% of the $13.7 billion notional exposure of Situational Awareness LP. When adding the put options on Micron (MU), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), and Intel (INTC), the fund has over 60% of its notional exposure betting on or hedging against declines or sharp volatility in core AI hardware stocks.
It is also worth noting that Situational Awareness LP purchased both call and put options on the same stock—for example, buying MU PUT (4.27%) alongside MU CALL (3.09%), and TSM PUT (3.91%) alongside TSM CALL (2.59%).
This is a common two-way betting strategy used by hedge funds. It indicates that the fund expects significant price volatility for Micron (memory chips) and TSMC (contract manufacturing) in their upcoming earnings reports or industry cycles in 2026, due to geopolitical factors or extreme supply-demand imbalances—where sufficient movement in either direction can generate profits on both sides.
Add position: Still favoring SanDisk and CRWV in the underlying stock.
In terms of adding positions, Situational Awareness LP did not choose options but instead increased its holdings in nine stocks in the form of underlying shares.
In the first quarter, Situational Awareness LP increased its position in SanDisk (SNDK) by 85,000 shares, bringing its total holdings to 1.14 million shares, with a market value of $724 million, accounting for 5.30% of the entire portfolio. This is one of the very few super-weighted positions in Situational Awareness LP’s portfolio held entirely in common stock.
Another significant move is that Situational Awareness LP significantly increased its position by over 1.07 million shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) in the first quarter, pushing the holding value to $556 million, accounting for 4.07%. CoreWeave is one of the most prominent infrastructure companies in the current AI GPU cloud services sector and a key partner in NVIDIA’s ecosystem. Shortly after its IPO, Situational Awareness LP rapidly added it to its core portfolio and aggressively increased its stake, indicating that while the fund has shorted NVIDIA’s short-term valuation (PUT), it remains extremely bullish on cloud giants that directly convert GPUs into compute power for major models.
In addition, Situational Awareness LP increased positions in computing and power infrastructure companies such as KEEL, IREN, APLD, RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, continuing the logic championed by Leopold Aschenbrenner that “electricity is the new oil.”
Liquidate: Exit the Intel leveraged long position and withdraw from optical communications.
In terms of position adjustments, Situational Awareness LP’s most significant move was to fully unwind its leveraged position in Intel call options. In the previous reporting period, Situational Awareness LP had allocated over 13% of its portfolio to Intel call options—peaking at 20.23 million option contracts—representing a highly leveraged directional bet. This quarter, it completely liquidated the options position and now holds only a minimal stake in the underlying stock (0.07%).
In addition, Situational Awareness LP fully exited its positions in LITE (previous weight: 8.68%) and COHR (previous weight: 1.61%) in Q1. Both LITE and COHR are leading global manufacturers of optical communication chips and optical transceivers. This exit indicates that Situational Awareness LP is withdrawing from the AI optical transceiver and network hardware sector.
In Q1, Situational Awareness LP fully exited its positions in CIFR (previous weight: 2.80%) and HUT (previous weight: 0.72%), both of which are cryptocurrency mining companies (along with CORZ, which was reduced in the next section). Given the increased positions in similar companies such as RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, this may simply be a routine portfolio rebalancing.
Reduce position: BE takes substantial profits
Finally, let’s look at the reduction in position: Bloom Energy (BE) was the largest holding in the previous quarter’s 13F filing for Situational Awareness LP. In the first quarter, the fund reduced its position by 3.59 million shares, causing its allocation to drop sharply from 15.87% in the prior quarter to 6.42%.
Bloom Energy specializes in solid oxide fuel cell technology and is a core holding for on-site power generation in data centers, bypassing the traditional grid. Given the still-substantial position size, the reduction does not imply that Situational Awareness LP has lost confidence in the company; it is more likely a routine profit-taking move.
The CRWV CALL option position of CoreWeave represents the second-largest reduction by Situational Awareness LP, with its allocation dropping sharply from 14.04% to 1.03%. As previously mentioned, the fund has transitioned its CRWV holding into the underlying stock, making this primarily a leverage-reduction move.
Situational Awareness LP also reduced its stake in Core Scientific (CORZ) by 2.74 million shares, lowering its position from 7.59% to 2.84%. CORZ is a leading company transitioning from bitcoin mining to AI computing hosting, but given that Situational Awareness LP increased its positions in other mining companies still in transition and offering more attractive valuations this quarter, the reduction in CORZ appears to be a partial profit-taking move.
What is the "AI Stock Guru" really thinking?
If one only looks at the surface data of this 13F, many might draw a simplistic conclusion—that Leopold Aschenbrenner, who once famously declared "AGI by 2027," is now fully bearish on AI.
But the reality is clearly not this simple. Within the position structure of Situational Awareness LP, two seemingly contradictory yet highly unified main threads coexist simultaneously.
- On one side, there is extreme caution regarding the short-term valuation bubble in the "chip side." Situational Awareness LP has taken a massive notional position in PUT options, essentially buying crash insurance for the entire AI semiconductor supply chain, including NVIDIA and Broadcom;
- On the other side, there is near-obsessive optimism about the long-term infrastructure demands of AI. Whether it’s CoreWeave, Bloom Energy, or a host of companies related to power, transformers, and data centers, they all point to the same certainty: the AI compute war has entered its deep waters.
This may also be the most critical judgment of Situational Awareness LP today. What will truly be scarce in the future may not be the GPU chips themselves, but the energy, power systems, and data center infrastructure required to sustain their continuous operation. GPU production can be scaled up over time, and advanced manufacturing processes will eventually ramp up—but megawatt-level power supply, transformers, transmission systems, and large-scale data center construction cycles are far harder to replicate in the short term. Compared to the “selling shovels” logic, which is already fully priced in by the market, Leopold Aschenbrenner appears more focused on identifying where the real bottlenecks may emerge in the next phase of the AI industry.
This also explains why Situational Awareness LP is simultaneously buying large volumes of semiconductor put options to hedge against extreme volatility in the AI hardware sector, while maintaining heavy positions in GPU cloud services, power, and computing infrastructure assets.
In a sense, this 13F is less a simple disclosure of holdings and more a roadmap of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s view on the next phase of evolution in the AI supply chain.
When a brilliant investor who rose to fame by going all-in on AI begins taking positions worth billions of dollars to insure the AI sector, it at least indicates one thing—even the most ardent AI bulls in this era are now taking volatility seriously.