21Shares: Bitcoin Not in Deep Bear Market, Volatility May Continue Until Year-End

According to Odaily, 21Shares analyst Maximiliaan Michielsen stated that Bitcoin's price drop below $100,000 has raised bear market concerns, but the decline is seen as a short-term correction rather than the start of a deep or long-term bear market. The analyst noted that volatility and consolidation may continue until year-end, but the fundamental factors supporting Bitcoin remain strong. Recent weakness is attributed to forced liquidations, large holder sell-offs, ETF outflows, and macro-driven liquidity tightening. Since October, the market has seen $32 billion in liquidations, including $3 billion in the past week. Large investors have sold about $12 billion in Bitcoin, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $866 million in outflows on Thursday, the second-highest single-day outflow on record. The U.S. government shutdown also withdrew $150 billion in cash from the financial system, worsening liquidity. However, long-term selling pressure has eased, and assets are shifting to more stable holders. Liquidity is expected to improve as U.S. quantitative tightening ends in December and government spending resumes. Global money supply expansion also supports Bitcoin, and increased demand for protection against fiat devaluation enhances its appeal as a store of value. Although Bitcoin is technically in a short-term bear market, the analyst views the decline as a valuation reset rather than a deep bear market. No classic bear market triggers—such as bond defaults, systemic fraud, regulatory shocks, or macroeconomic tightening—have emerged. Historical data shows such corrections typically last 1–3 months and often precede the next bull phase. Long-term fundamentals for Bitcoin remain solid, with a constructive outlook for the future.