February 2026 Crypto Market Recap: BTC Rebounds to $60K as Market Navigates US-Iran Tensions

Author: CryptoNarratives (Viktor)

Compiled by Deep潮 TechFlow

Deep潮 Summary: This monthly review comprehensively outlines the key movements in the crypto market for February: BTC’s dramatic rebound to $60K, the panic and rapid recovery on the day of the strike on Iran, the speculative trading surrounding the ZRO conference, and the manipulative coins thriving in the bear market. Packed with insights, it serves as essential background material for understanding the current market structure.

The full text is as follows:

Here is the key timeline for February:

After reaching a peak at the end of January, gold experienced a sharp correction, falling from $5,600 to $4,400. The bottom formed on February 2, followed by a rapid rebound to $5,100 within two days. Silver also saw a peak collapse, plunging nearly 50% from $121 to $64 on February 6.

BTC opened February with extreme weakness, having peaked at $98K in January, opened February at $78K, dropped to $70K within four days, and then plunged sharply from $70K to $60K in a single day on February 5.

BTC strongly rebounded from the $60K level, returning to nearly $72K in less than a day. This entire move established the volatility range for the rest of the month, primarily between $60K and $70K.

After the first week, BTC traded largely around $68K for the rest of the month, with only two distinct periods of strength: February 13–14 and February 25, each of which saw notable rallies in altcoins.

On February 27, BTC dropped from $68k to $65k amid rumors of an imminent U.S. airstrike on Iran; the attack officially occurred one day later. After the news was confirmed, BTC fell further from $65k to $62k, but buying pressure sustained the price throughout the day, ultimately closing near $68k—the same level at which the month ended. On the same day, news of Khamenei’s death was announced, and the market widely interpreted this as a bullish signal (as it suggested the U.S. would likely not commit extensive resources to this conflict).

The only notable narrative among altcoins in February was the LayerZero event on February 10. $ZRO has been steadily strengthening since the beginning of the year, primarily driven by expectations surrounding this event. I initially anticipated this would be a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” opportunity, but the reality was slightly different.

On that day, a video announcing the launch of its own public blockchain was leaked in advance, triggering a sell-off that caused the price to drop approximately 20% within an hour—but this also marked the day’s low. Later that day, the official announcement confirmed the launch of its own public blockchain, "Zero," alongside a series of high-profile partnership announcements, including Citadel Securities, Cathie Wood/ARK, DTCC, and ICE.

As a result, immediately after the meeting, there was a strong rally, with $ZRO rising approximately 45% within 12 hours, catching many "buy the rumor, sell the news" traders off guard. But then... the gains were completely retraced, and the token steadily declined to $1.5, a level that now appears to be providing strong support.

VVV was the top-performing "non-scam" token in February, rising from a low of $1.65 to $5.5 by month-end (further squeezed to $8 on March 2). One catalyst was its status as a legitimate project at the intersection of AI, privacy, and crypto, with a bottom valuation under $100M;另一方面, it also benefited from OpenClaw's endorsement, as OpenClaw continued to list Venice as a recommended model provider in its documentation until yesterday.

I tend to think it peaked at the $8.4 squeeze in early March, but I could be wrong.

In late February, a few AI tokens briefly surged: $SAHARA rose +70% in a single day, and $GRASS also gained +70% within four days.

Bear markets seem to provide ideal conditions for scam coins to thrive. In February, the established AI meme coin $PIPPIN made a comeback—its supply has been fully locked by a single entity, and its price movement exhibits classic signs of manipulation. At the start of the month, $PIPPIN stabilized at an $180M market cap after a 70% drop over four days. Starting February 8, it surged strongly, rising +315% in seven days to reach a new high of $750M, then pulled back to $500M before climbing again to a new peak of $900M. Strangely, its funding rate is no longer negative, making it a relatively lower-risk target for shorting compared to typical scam coins. Even so, I wouldn’t be surprised if it broke past a $1B market cap.

$POWER is one of the new manipulative pumps that emerged in February, surging 12x from its low to its peak and squeezing to a $2.3B FDV, with extremely negative funding rates. Shorting this asset requires extreme caution.

Another notable movement is $SIREN, a BSC scam memecoin that experienced a one-day pump-and-dump on February 8—rising from a $100M market cap to $400M before crashing back to $100M—followed by a gradual climb throughout the remainder of February to a new high, culminating in a significant squeeze at a $600M market cap.

It’s also worth noting that $BULLA surged 13-fold at the end of January, then plummeted 95% in a single day on February 1, dropping from a $450M FDV to a $25M FDV. $ARC also experienced an 80% crash after rising from $40M to $130M.

Bear market characteristics

We are in a bear market environment: most bullish moves for altcoins are short-term squeezes followed by rapid pullbacks. Tokens exhibiting this behavior in February include: ZK, ZIL, LA, NIL, SONIC, DYM, ME, MOVE, 0G, INIT, RPL, ESP, AZTEC, BIO, AGLD, SAHARA. These moves typically occur within a single day, featuring +50% to +100% price increases accompanied by negative funding rates (making it difficult for short sellers), followed by a weakening trend over the next few days.

Apart from the rebound following the sharp decline, altcoins experienced only two brief periods of strength. The first occurred from February 13–15, led by meme coins (USELESS +50%, PEPE +35%) and AI tokens ($TAO +35%, $VVV +150%, VIRTUAL +25%). The second was extremely short-lived, occurring on February 25, and was purely a short squeeze on large-cap coins thought to be "dead," with these tokens rising between +25% and +30% that day (DOT, NEAR, UNI, APT, FIL, TIA, etc.).

$HYPE and the Perpetual DEX Sector

$HYPE ended January with strong momentum, surging from $22 to $34 in a single day, and this strength carried into early February. It reached $38 on February 3, becoming the best-performing token on the day of the market-wide crash and cascading liquidations on February 5. Its resilience was evident—on February 6, it nearly touched $37, as if the broader market collapse had never happened. However, this also marked its peak relative to the altcoin market. Over the next 20 days, it slightly underperformed the altcoin market, retreating to $26.

One reason for $HYPE's strong performance in early February was significant buying by Multicoin over several days, alongside continuous accumulation by HSI/PURR (HYPE's DAT).

In the perpetual DEX sector, $LIT remained extremely weak in February, with $1.3 serving as support after being tested four to five times.

After a sharp decline on February 5, $ASTER rebounded strongly, rising from a low near $0.4 to $0.7, then strangely stagnated at $0.7 for the remainder of February. It has a bullish catalyst: its own L1/public blockchain is set to launch in March.

Uniswap x BlackRock

On February 11, Uniswap announced a partnership with BlackRock to provide liquidity for BlackRock’s BUIDL product, alongside the disclosure that BlackRock had made a direct investment in $UNI tokens (amount undisclosed). The market reacted strongly, with $UNI surging +40% within 10 minutes—a remarkable move for a token with an FDV exceeding $3 billion. However, the entire gain was erased within the next 10 hours, a classic bear market pump-and-dump pattern.

Aave experienced a period of public controversy in February. On February 20, BGD Labs announced its exit from the Aave DAO due to disagreements over the V4 strategy, triggering an 8% drop in $AAVE. At month’s end, prominent figure in the Aave ecosystem, Marc Zeller, published a critique of Aave Labs, characterizing it as a de facto rent-extracting entity, further weakening the token.

Aave is further disadvantaged by its main competitor, $MORPHO, which performed strongly in 2026, rising nearly +75% in February. The fully diluted valuations (FDV) of both tokens are now roughly equal, at approximately $2 billion.

Other important events in February

On February 18, Base announced it would transition from the Optimism tech stack to a self-built solution. This dealt a devastating blow to $OP, causing a 40% drop over four days. $ARB, due to its correlation, was also affected, with its current FDV at only $1 billion—a 96% decline from its all-time high (compared to $OP’s 97% drop).

On February 11, $BERA experienced an extremely strong short squeeze, surging +160% within 8 hours, with a significant price discrepancy between spot and futures markets (15% difference). This is a highly erratic token that typically underperforms the market significantly, but occasionally exhibits intense, random squeezes—last month, it already posted a 2x gain over five days.

On February 18, $WLFI surged +30% without any apparent catalyst, while open interest (OI) increased by nearly $100M—suggesting a single entity may have driven the price up by taking long positions worth $100M in $WLFI. The price then peaked at this level and has since declined by approximately 20%, with no new developments since. The actions of this entity are highly unusual, and I expect $WLFI to decline further over the coming months.

At the end of February 2026, Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy estate filed a lawsuit against Jane Street in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, alleging that Jane Street traded on non-public information prior to key UST liquidity events during the 2022 Terra collapse. Within days of the announcement, $LUNC rose by +35%.

$ZEC is still digesting its significant rally in Q4 2025 and is generally underperforming, though it occasionally experiences strong squeezes, such as the +45% surge on February 13–14. I believe it is quite likely to drop to $150 or even $100 in the coming months.

$HNT surged twofold in February—was this merely a dead cat bounce from an asset plagued by excessive inflation, or has this DePIN token finally fallen low enough to become a compelling buy?

As in the previous month, $STABLE has continued trading with a locked supply, rising +144% from a local low of $1.6B FDV to a new high near $4B FDV. DegenSpartan also endorsed it in an article; given that DegenSpartan has rarely spoken out publicly during this period, this endorsement is strongly bullish.

BCH is a peculiar token—it rose consistently against BTC (outperforming by 40%) for 22 consecutive days, then suddenly reversed, wiping out all its excess gains in less than a week. Driven by the "quantum-resistant" narrative and its overall strength since early 2025, many became bullish on BCH, but it now appears that a large holder has decided to exit, steadily selling via TWAP.

Robinhood launched two altcoins in February: $SNX (on February 19) and $CC. While $CC saw almost no reaction, $SNX rose +42% within days. Listing on Upbit remains a powerful catalyst for tokens, with $AZTEC (+70%), $ESP (+100%), and $SKR (+40%) all experiencing similar surges, along with extremely negative funding rates within hours of listing. $BIRB also doubled in price after its listing on Bithumb on February 3.

Two TGEs to watch in February are $AZTEC and $ESP (Espresso). Both have relatively low trading valuations (both FDVs below $500M, whereas similar projects could easily reach $1B+ FDV just a few months ago), indicating that altcoin premiums are gradually repricing downward. However, $ESP has shown strong momentum, rising +280% from its late February low to its peak.

Polymarket announced a partnership with Kaito to launch an attention market; $KAITO rose +13% within 3 minutes after the announcement, but fully retraced all gains within an hour.