2026 Bitcoin Outlook: Pricing Power Shifts to Institutional Capital

In 2026, the Bitcoin market is at a historic turning point.At the macro-narrative level, the intense conflicts in global geopolitics are accelerating the collapse of the existing financial system. The petrodollar hegemony established by the United States through the Bretton Woods system is now facing a fierce challenge from China's emerging RMB-based system, built on the strength of its manufacturing and high-tech industries. This transition toward a multipolar financial order presents a historic opportunity for blockchain technology.At first glance, there is significant divergence in the market regarding price trajectories, the actual contribution of daily active tokens (DAT), and the pace of volatility convergence. However, behind these debates over short-term paths lies a deep and unified consensus forming in the market regarding Bitcoin's long-term positioning:Bitcoin's pricing mechanism has completely decoupled from the halving cycle narrative, and its pricing power is irreversibly shifting from crypto-native capital to traditional capital markets driven by asset allocation logic.The core value anchor has shifted from the grand narrative of digital gold to becoming an item on the balance sheets of nations and institutions.Core strategic configuration assetsIts long-term volatility converging toward that of commodities has become an inevitable trend.

Looking ahead to 2026, the first half of the year will see the market fluctuate between the inflow of ETF/DAT funds and macroeconomic volatility.Broad fluctuationFramework: As macro policies such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are implemented, along with the continued expansion of national and institutional holdings, the consensus on the transfer of pricing power will become even more prominent, leading to a narrowing of price volatility.Geopolitical risk hedging and the demand for multipolar financial infrastructure will accelerate the strategic allocation of Bitcoin by nations and institutions.,The narrative of neutral value reserves will completely dominate the mainstream market..

For a long time, the Bitcoin market has followed a pattern of extreme volatility driven by retail sentiment, leverage cycles, and the supply-side narrative of the quadrennial halving event. However, since the approval of spot ETFs in January 2024 and the structural market adjustments in 2025, a new paradigm is quietly emerging.

More than 30 top Wall Street and crypto-native institutions, in their annual outlooks published between December 2025 and January 2026, consistently pointed out that the cryptocurrency industry is moving from "adolescent turbulence" toward "mature stability," entering what is referred to as the "industrialization phase." Grayscale, in its report released on December 15, 2025, named this transition the "Dawn of the Institutional Era," with the core of this transformation being...The Shift in Bitcoin Pricing Power:The beginning of Bitcoin formally filling the vacuum of "neutral value reserve" in a multipolar geopolitical landscape.

More fundamentally, the rapid changes in the current geopolitical landscape are accelerating this process. Countries like Russia and Iran are effectively circumventing U.S. economic sanctions by using Bitcoin and stablecoins for settlements. Third-world nations are seeking to build comprehensive financial infrastructure based on blockchain technology, independent of the traditional Western financial system. Meanwhile, U.S. institutional investors are allocating Bitcoin to hedge against inflation risks in the U.S. dollar. This global demand for a multipolar financial order is providing Bitcoin with unprecedented strategic asset allocation value.

On-chain data confirms the depth of this transition: as of January 13, 2026, the circulating supply of Bitcoin reached 19,975,087 coins.95.12% has been minedThe annualized inflation rate has declined to0.823%For the first time in history, the interest rate has dropped below gold's 1.5%-2%. At the same time, institutional holdings have reached an unprecedented scale — U.S. spot ETFs have accumulated net inflows of $56.4 billion, with total assets under management reaching $116.86 billion, representing 6.48% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. Globally, approximately 160 listed companies hold 1.105 million BTC (5.53% of the total supply), with Strategy alone holding 687,400 BTC. These "non-circulating inventories" collectively lock up about 1.7 million BTC, equivalent to 8.5% of the circulating supply, fundamentally reshaping the market's supply and demand structure.

This chapter will focus on the apparent divergences arising in the market during the current transitional period, and look beyond these divergences to demonstrate the underlying unified, long-term logic driven by neutral value reserves.

Although the long-term direction is converging, there is significant divergence in the market regarding how to reach the destination by 2026, mainly reflected in the following three dimensions:

2.1 Price Trend Debate: One-Sided Breakout vs. Wide Oscillation

Optimistic perspectiveBelieve that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, with a target range of $120,000 to $225,000. The core support for this expectation comes from the combined effect of a triple capital engine.

First is the continuous net inflow into ETFs. In Bitwise's bold assertion in its 2026 outlook, "ETFs will purchase more than 100% of the newly issued Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana supply," implying that ETF demand will fully absorb the supply contraction after the halving and even acquire assets from the existing market. As of January 2026, U.S. spot ETFs have accumulated a net inflow of 600,590 BTC. According to Bitwise's logic, the annual new supply after the 2026 halving will be approximately 164,250 coins. If ETFs maintain their current monthly inflow rate of 20,000 to 30,000 coins, they will easily achieve an oversupply of demand over the new supply.

Secondly, there is the continuous coin-buying behavior of the DAT company. A total of 160 publicly traded companies worldwide have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. For example, Strategy plans to continuously expand its holdings to 687,400 Bitcoin by 2025, and companies like iPower have even purchased Bitcoin through dedicated financing. The MSCI index's continued inclusion of such companies further validates the mainstream adoption of this strategy.

Third is the macroeconomic benefit brought by the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The market generally expects the Fed to restart its rate-cutting cycle in the second half of 2026, and improved global liquidity will create a favorable environment for risky assets.This triple-layered funding support, forming both institutional allocation and macro-level liquidity backing, is sufficient to drive prices beyond the historical high set in 2025.

Cautious perspectiveThey hold a completely different stance. In a report dated December 18, 2025, Galaxy Digital bluntly stated that 2026 is "too chaotic to predict," but based on options market pricing, it provided an equal probability range of $70,000 to $150,000 by year-end. This assessment is based on three major resistance factors.

First is the high correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risky assets. Social media analysis shows that Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has exceeded 0.7, making it more susceptible to macroeconomic fluctuations in U.S. equities. In 2026, a global turning point for macroeconomic policy, uncertainties such as the pace of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, Bank of Japan's rate hikes, and recurring inflation in Europe will directly impact Bitcoin's price.

Secondly, there is the technical resistance revealed by on-chain data. UTXO age band analysis shows that a large amount of holdings are concentrated at$92,100 to $117,400This price range consists of buy orders placed near the 2025 peak, forming a strong supply pressure from above. The current price has reached the lower edge of this cost cluster. Any upward movement will require time and capital to absorb the selling pressure from these trapped positions. The cost basis for short-term holders is around $95,000, which will serve as a key psychological and technical resistance level.

Third is the uncertainty of ETF fund flows. Although the cumulative inflow has been substantial, ETF funds may experience net outflows during certain periods. From October to December 2025, the price of Bitcoin corrected by 40% from its peak, while its realized market cap remained stable at a historical high of $1.125 trillion. This suggests that institutional holders did not panic and sell off, but it also indicates a slowdown in new capital inflows. If the macroeconomic environment deteriorates and leads to continuous net outflows from ETFs, it could directly undermine the narrative of strong institutional demand.

The core judgment of the cautious faction lies in the fact that,The outcome of the tug-of-war between institutional capital's sustainability and macroeconomic uncertainty will determine whether 2026 brings a one-sided breakout or a wide-ranging consolidation..

2.2 DAT Narrative Debate: Sustained Engine vs. Fragile Flywheel

The debate surrounding the DAT model also presents diametrically opposed viewpoints.

Supporters view DAT as a continuous funding engine., considering it as another institutional source of demand following ETFs. As of January 2026, approximately 160 listed companies globally hold Bitcoin, with the top 100 collectively holding 1.105 million BTC, representing 5.53% of the total supply. This scale has already surpassed the sovereign reserve plans of many individual countries, becoming a structural demand that cannot be ignored.

Companies like iPower are purchasing coins through dedicated financing, while Strategy continues to expand its holdings. These actions indicate that DAT is not merely a passive allocation of "buy and hold," but rather an active asset management strategy. The continued inclusion of companies like Strategy in the MSCI index further validates the market's acceptance of this model. Supporters believe that as more companies follow this example, DAT will create...Fundamental demand independent of price, providing long-term support for Bitcoin.

Skeptics characterize DAT as a passive model dependent on token prices.highlighting its inherent vulnerabilities. In a report dated December 15, 2025, Grayscale directly dismissed DAT as a "red herring," arguing that its media presence outweighs its actual price impact and that it will not be a major market factor in 2026. Galaxy Digital went even further, issuing a warning on December 4, 2025, predicting that...At least five DAT companies will go out of business or be acquired by 2026 due to operational issues..

Skeptics' core argument centers on the "buy-cryptocurrency and leverage financing" flywheel of the DAT model, which is highly dependent on rising cryptocurrency prices. In its report, Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that the stock price of DAT companies is highly leveraged and closely correlated with the price of Bitcoin. A deep correction in cryptocurrency prices could trigger a negative spiral of "falling stock prices → financing difficulties → forced cryptocurrency sales → further cryptocurrency price declines." In social media analysis, some views explicitly predict: "DAT's structure relies on leverage; it is expected that reserves will be forcibly liquidated during a down cycle, and the stock price will drop to zero within 12 months."

On-chain data shows that the stock prices of small DAT companies have been consistently below their net asset value in Bitcoin for a long time (mNAV < 1), indicating that the market questions the sustainability of their business models. If Bitcoin's price fails to break out as expected by 2026, these companies may face liquidity crises.

The focal point of the disagreement is whether the DAT model actually creates...Fundamental demand independent of price, or merely amplifying market fluctuationsPassive Follower.

The market is also divided on the timeline for Bitcoin's volatility to converge with that of traditional assets.

The optimistic outlook expects convergence to be achieved by 2026.Bitwise boldly asserts in its forecast: "Bitcoin's volatility will fall below that of NVIDIA for the first time." This prediction is symbolic—NVIDIA, as a representative of tech stocks, has significantly higher volatility than traditional commodities. If Bitcoin's volatility drops below that of NVIDIA, it would indicate a fundamental transformation in Bitcoin's asset characteristics.

The basis for this expectation lies in the continuous increase in institutional ownership. ETFs and DAT, as non-circulating reserves, collectively lock up approximately 1.7 million BTC, accounting for 8.5% of the circulating supply. This significantly reduces speculative trading volumes in the market. Institutional investors' behavior of buying and holding contrasts sharply with retail investors' high-frequency trading, effectively smoothing out short-term speculative volatility.

Another forecast from Bitwise added, "The correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will decrease," implying that Bitcoin will gradually move away from its positioning as a "risky asset beta" and evolve into an independent asset class, thereby reducing the transmission effects of macroeconomic volatility.

A more cautious view suggests that convergence will be delayed until 2027.VanEck states in its long-term capital market assumptions that the annualized volatility of Bitcoin is expected to remain at40%-70%The range is comparable to that of equities in emerging markets and significantly higher than gold's 15%-20%. This assessment is based on three key reasons.

First, reshaping asset characteristics is not something that can be accomplished overnight. Although institutional holdings have reached unprecedented levels, retail investors and leveraged traders still account for a significant proportion. A complete transformation of the market structure will require more time.

Secondly, market data from early 2026 shows that implied volatility has moderately rebounded from historic lows, indicating that the market's pricing of short-term volatility has not disappeared. Galaxy Digital noted that Bitcoin is shifting toward a macro asset skew, with put option prices higher than call options, reflecting market concerns about downside risks.

Third, macroeconomic data shocks remain significant. In a year of global macroeconomic policy transitions, changes in liquidity expectations could still cause phased impacts on Bitcoin. Some KOLs stated: "We are optimistic in the short term for January-February, but we are pessimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, as liquidity will be insufficient to sustain momentum." If geopolitical conflicts escalate or the Federal Reserve's rate cuts fall short of expectations, volatility could rise temporarily.

The core of the disagreement lies in whether the institutionalization process can achieve a qualitative transformation from quantitative change by 2026, leading to a meaningful convergence in volatility, or whether it will need to extend into 2027.

Although there may be differing opinions along the aforementioned paths, market participants have strongly reached a consensus on the following three fundamental issues, which form the cornerstone of Bitcoin's new value narrative.

3.1 Consensus One: The Transfer of Pricing Power is Completed, and the Halving Cycle Narrative is Marginalized

This is the most fundamental consensus above all disagreements. Multiple institutions, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, and Fidelity, clearly declared in their December 2025 reports:The narrative of Bitcoin's "four-year halving cycle" has completely failed..

21Shares bluntly stated that "the four-year cycle has broken," Bitwise predicted that "Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and reach new highs," Fidelity discussed in its live stream that "the traditional four-year cycle in cryptocurrency may have ended," and Grayscale even titled its report "The End of the So-Called 'Four-Year Cycle'."

Data supports this argument. After the fourth halving in April 2024, the increase in Bitcoin's price was significantly weaker compared to the previous three cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020, indicating that the price-boosting effect of halvings has sharply diminished. More importantly,The driving force has completely shifted from the "supply side (halving)" to the "demand side (value storage).".

Fidelity openly stated that the market has entered a "new paradigm." The average daily trading volume of ETFs now accounts for an increasingly significant portion of Bitcoin's total trading volume, becoming a new center of liquidity and a venue for price discovery. As of January 2026, ETFs had accumulated a net inflow of 600,590 BTC, equivalent to 100% of the total new supply added from the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 up to January 2026 (approximately 600,000 BTC), fully offsetting the supply contraction.

The popularization of discussions around DAT strategies and sovereign wealth reserves has further systematically constrained supply. Asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity configure their clients' asset allocations on a quarterly basis, and their capital flows have become more persistent pricing factors than halving events. Institutional and traditional financial buyers are now countering cycle-based sellers, and Bitcoin's scarcity relative to gold and real estate is underestimated.

The pricing authority has shifted from crypto-native funds focused on "block reward halvings" to traditional asset management institutions that emphasize "Sharpe ratios, asset correlations, and allocation ratios."This is an irreversible transfer of power.

3.2 Consensus Two: Value Anchoring Restructuring, Becoming a Core Component of Institutional Balance Sheets

Regardless of differing views on short-term prices, the market acknowledges that Bitcoin's long-term value foundation has shifted. It is no longer based solely on the relatively abstract narrative of "digital gold," but is now specifically anchored to three solid pillars:and has gained additional strategic value against the backdrop of the ongoing restructuring of the current geopolitical landscape..

1. Moderate and analyzable correlation with traditional assets.

Although the current correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 exceeds 0.7 and is viewed as a risk by some perspectives, institutional investors consider this correlation to be modelable and predictable. Bitwise predicts that "the correlation between Bitcoin and equities will decline," implying that as institutional allocation increases, Bitcoin will gradually move away from being purely a risk asset beta and evolve into an independent asset class. This moderate correlation allows Bitcoin to be incorporated into traditional investment portfolios using mean-variance optimization models, rather than being treated as a completely isolated speculative asset.

2. Absolute and Verifiable Scarcity.

As of January 13, 2026, 95.12% of the total Bitcoin supply has been mined, and the annualized inflation rate has dropped to 0.823%.Historically the first time below 1.5%-2% of goldThe hard supply cap of 21 million is guaranteed by the consensus protocol and cannot be altered by any central authority. This "algorithmic scarcity" differs from gold's "physical scarcity," making it more suitable for value storage in the digital age.

3. Increasingly Robust Compliance Configuration Channel.

The U.S. "GENIUS Act" was signed into law by President Trump on July 18, 2025, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring 100% reserves and monthly disclosures, providing regulatory clarity that benefits the entire industry. The "CLARITY Act" was passed by the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, which will divide the regulatory authority between the CFTC and SEC and provide a safe harbor for DeFi, significantly reducing legal uncertainties for institutional participation. The EU's "MiCA Regulation" came into effect on December 30, 2024, classifying Bitcoin as an "other crypto-asset," requiring service providers to obtain licenses and comply with information disclosure and anti-manipulation rules, with full implementation expected to continue through 2026. These legislative developments mark a shift in cryptocurrency regulation from fragmentation to a systematic approach, laying a legal foundation for large-scale institutional capital inflows and the healthy development of the industry.

4. The Strategic Value of Geopolitical Risk Hedging and Financial Order Restructuring.

Under the trend of a multipolar global geopolitical landscape, Bitcoin has demonstrated unique strategic value. Sanctioned countries such as Russia and Iran use Bitcoin and stablecoins for cross-border settlements, effectively circumventing restrictions imposed by traditional financial regulations. Third-world countries are leveraging blockchain technology to build independent financial infrastructures, reducing their reliance on the Western-dominated financial system. Meanwhile, U.S. institutional investors are allocating Bitcoin to hedge against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and inflationary pressures. This cross-national, cross-camp demand for allocation provides Bitcoin with geopolitical alpha opportunities that traditional assets do not possess.

The combination of these four pillars enables Bitcoin to function asNon-sovereign, inflation-resistant neutral value reserve assetIt is officially entering the asset allocation models of pension funds, insurance funds, and family offices. The U.S. 401(k) pension plan has opened up digital asset allocation, which could bring significant potential buying demand based on a 1% to 5% allocation weight. Moreover, over 41% of hedge funds plan to allocate cryptocurrency, while sovereign wealth funds like the Norwegian Government Pension Fund have started pilot reserves. Traditional wealth management platforms such as Morgan Stanley also plan to offer Bitcoin ETF allocation options to their clients by 2026.

Grayscale also wrote in its report: "2026 will accelerate structural transformation... broadening adoption (particularly between advisory wealth and institutional investors)." This marks a qualitative shift as Bitcoin's value anchor evolves from a speculative asset to a strategic allocation asset.

3.3 Consensus Three: The convergence of volatility toward commodities is an inevitable long-term trend.

Although there is debate over whether the goal of lower volatility than NVIDIA can be achieved by 2026, both parties agree that"Increased institutionalization → decreased volatility"the core logic chain, as well as the inevitable trend for volatility to gradually align with that of established commodities like gold in the long term.

From the supply side, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate has fallen below that of gold for the first time, establishing its foundation as an ultra-scarce commodity. Under the constraint of a maximum supply cap of 21 million coins, its inflation rate will continue to decline in the future, with each halving event further tightening the supply.

From the demand side, the broad-based allocation of ETFs and the long-term locking of DAT jointly form a dual stabilizer that reduces speculative selling pressure in the market. On-chain data shows that ETFs and DAT collectively lock up approximately 1.7 million BTC, representing 8.5% of the circulating supply. The holders of these non-circulating inventories are primarily focused on long-term allocations, with significantly lower turnover rates compared to retail investors and leveraged traders.

Glassnode data shows that the market is transitioning from "defensive deleveraging" to "selective risk-on" as profit-taking pressure eases and ETF demand returns, indicating a healthier structure. The realized market cap has stabilized at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, suggesting that holders' average cost basis is solid and resistant to short-term volatility.

Galaxy Digital noted that Bitcoin is experiencing a "structural decrease in long-term volatility," shifting toward a "macro asset skew." This means Bitcoin's volatility pattern is transitioning from "endogenous speculative volatility" driven by leverage and liquidations, to "exogenous macro volatility" driven by Federal Reserve policy and risk appetite. The latter exhibits volatility characteristics more similar to traditional commodities.

Institutional investors are seeking assets with controllable volatility that can be integrated into traditional investment portfolios. Their continuous entry itself is the strongest driving force behind reduced volatility. When long-term capital such as pension funds and insurance funds become the primary marginal buyers, Bitcoin's price will no longer be driven by the profit-seeking behaviors of leveraged traders, but instead by the rebalancing of long-term asset allocations. As a result, its volatility will naturally converge toward that of traditional assets.

Therefore,The downward shift of volatility toward a central level and moving closer to mature commodities like gold is a long-term inevitable trend widely recognized.The disagreement lies only in whether this process will be completed by 2026 or extended to 2027.

Based on the analysis of the above-mentioned divergences and convergences, and combining on-chain data, institutional reports, and social media narratives, I offer the following independent assessment of the Bitcoin market trajectory in 2026:

4.1 First Half of 2026: Divergence Dominates, Broad Volatility

The market will be in a "transition period" during the shift between old and new paradigms. On one hand, ETF funds may experience a return of net inflows as macroeconomic sentiment improves. As of January 2026, ETF assets under management reached $116.86 billion, and according to institutional forecasts, net inflows for the entire year of 2026 could reach hundreds of billions of dollars. DAT companies may also make new allocations, and continuous token purchases by leading firms like Strategy will provide support for the price.

On the other hand, the high correlation with traditional stock markets and the historical profit-taking resistance above will significantly limit the upward space and speed. On-chain data shows that the UTXO cost base is at$92,100 to $117,400The price ranges are densely distributed, with the cost basis for short-term holders around $95,000. These ranges will form strong technical resistance levels. Once the price breaks above $100,000, the market will likely experience a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out).

On a macro level, the risk of an escalation in geopolitical conflicts in the first half of 2026 remains, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is still unclear, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and inflation data in Europe could fluctuate. These uncertainties will directly affect the price of Bitcoin.

Overall, prices are more likely to fluctuate between "institutional capital providing support" and "macroeconomic volatility and technical resistance exerting pressure," resulting in a back-and-forth struggle and a pattern of oscillation.Wide-range fluctuation pattern$100,000 will be a key psychological and technical resistance level. At this stage, as investors, we should focus on ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve policy signals, and changes in on-chain and futures market position distributions, rather than expecting a one-sided breakout.

4.2 Second Half of 2026: Consensus Becomes Prominent, Volatility Converges

As time progresses in the second half of the year, the consensus on the transfer of pricing power will become more deeply rooted, driving the market toward a more stable state.

First,It has become clearer that the Federal Reserve is entering a rate-cutting cycle.An improvement in the global liquidity environment will create macroeconomic tailwinds for risk assets and Bitcoin.

Secondly, after the fluctuations and digestion in the first half of the year, some of the resistance from upper-level positions is expected to be alleviated. Holders of stuck (loss-making) positions are either cutting their losses and exiting during repeated fluctuations or converting to long-term holdings. A reduction in supply pressure will create conditions for a price breakout.

More importantly, institutional holdings are expected to continue expanding. If Bitwise's prediction that its "ETF will purchase more than 100% of the new supply" comes true, the AUM (Assets Under Management) of the ETF could approach or even exceed $15 billion by year-end. After undergoing risk testing in the first half of the year, if DAT Company does not experience a major crisis due to a cryptocurrency price correction, its holdings could also grow further. As the proportion of institutional holdings continues to rise, it will structurally reduce the speculative float in the market.

At that time, the market consensus that pricing power has substantially shifted will become even more deeply rooted. The movement of Bitcoin may become relatively "boring," as predicted by Galaxy Digital—no longer experiencing monthly surges or crashes of 30%-50%, but instead exhibiting mild fluctuations amid rebalancing of institutional allocations.The narrative of core assets and neutral value reserves in the balance sheets of institutions will become the mainstream in the market., the price is expected to break through the previous high on a more solid foundation.

If the CLARITY Act passes smoothly after the Senate vote in 2026, further regulatory clarity will trigger a new wave of institutional FOMO (fear of missing out), becoming a key catalyst in the second half of the year. Bitwise clearly stated that "passage of the CLARITY Act will drive Ethereum and Solana to new highs," with an even more significant positive impact on Bitcoin.

Comprehensive analysis suggests that Bitcoin is expected to enter [a new phase/upward trend/market cycle] in the second half of the year.Fluctuating convergence, steady upward trendAt this stage, the year-end price could stabilize within the $100,000 to $150,000 range, laying the foundation for further breakthroughs in 2027.

4.3 Risk Warnings

1. Recurring risks of macroeconomic inflation

If global inflation rebounds more than expected (e.g., due to energy price shocks or renewed supply chain disruptions), forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance again, delay, or even pause rate cuts, it would simultaneously hurt risk appetite and the macro-hedging narrative for Bitcoin. The risk of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan also needs attention. Historically, unwinding of yen carry trades has led to Bitcoin falling by more than 20% during periods of low liquidity. If the Bank of Japan raises rates more aggressively than expected in the first half of 2026, a similar scenario could reoccur.

2. Risk of Tightening Compliance Policies

Although the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act represent improvements in the regulatory framework, compliance requirements such as anti-money laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) for the cryptocurrency industry could suddenly become more stringent. The GENIUS Act already requires stablecoin issuers to comply with the BSA, including AML procedures, sanctions screening, and customer identification. If similar requirements are extended to Bitcoin ETFs and DAT (Digital Asset Trading) companies, it would increase institutional participation costs and reduce their appeal.

3. Risk of Cash Flow Reversal

If ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) capital experiences unexpected and sustained net outflows, it will directly undermine the narrative foundation of institutional demand. The 40% price correction from October to December 2025 has already demonstrated the reality of this risk. Should the macroeconomic environment deteriorate (such as the Federal Reserve turning hawkish again or global recession concerns intensifying), pension funds and insurance funds may reduce their allocations to risky assets, and ETFs will be the first to face redemption pressures. Due to the lack of retail investors to absorb the sell-off in a decentralized manner, concentrated ETF selling could trigger a more severe liquidity crunch and sharper price declines than in previous cycles.

4. DAT Mode Default Risk

Galaxy Digital predicts that at least five DAT (Digital Asset Trading) companies will either go bankrupt or be acquired by 2026, with this risk being most pronounced during the price volatility in the first half of the year. If leading companies like Strategy are forced to sell off their Bitcoin holdings in a concentrated manner due to stock price or operational issues (although this currently seems highly unlikely, smaller DAT companies face higher risks), it could trigger a chain reaction in the market.

The Bitcoin market in 2026 stands at the crossroads of two eras: "speculation-driven" and "institution-driven." The apparent divergences in price, DAT (possibly referring to data or a specific metric), and volatility essentially reflect the market's underlying debate about...Pacing of the transformationbut ratherTransformation Directiondifferent judgments.

The three unified consensus points—irreversible transfer of pricing power, value anchored to national and institutional allocations, and long-term convergence of volatility—have become the cornerstone of the new paradigm. On-chain data confirms the depth of this transformation: over 95% of the total Bitcoin supply has already been mined, its inflation rate of 0.823% is lower than that of gold, institutions have locked up 8.5% of the circulating supply, and the realized market cap has stabilized at a historic high of $1.125 trillion. These structural changes will not be reversed by short-term price fluctuations.

As investors, we need to move beyond the fixation on mere price fluctuations and instead focus on the milestones of institutionalization: the progress of the *CLARITY Act*, ETF inflows, the resilience of the DAT model during volatility, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline. The wide fluctuations in the first half of 2026 will be an inevitable phase in the transition from old to new pricing logic, while the reduced volatility in the second half will confirm the ultimate establishment of the neutral value reserve narrative.

At the dawn of the institutional era, Bitcoin's competitiveness will no longer depend on retail sentiment or mining costs, but rather on its ability to prove itself as an irreplaceable strategic asset within the asset allocation models of national reserves, pension funds, insurance funds, and sovereign wealth funds.

This is a transfer of pricing power from "digital gold" to a "neutral value reserve," and also a rite of passage for Bitcoin as it moves from adolescence to maturity.