2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Top Two Platforms Capture 97.5% Market Share

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

2025 has come to a close, and the predicted market trends have also presented their own results.

According to data from PredictionIndex.xyz, the total trading volume in the prediction market sector is projected to reach $5.025 billion in 2025. Excluding Kalshi and Polymarket, the rest of the ecosystem generated $125 million in trading volume. Additionally, data from KalshiData shows that Kalshi's nominal annual trading volume reached $23.8 billion, representing a 1,108% year-over-year growth. As both Polymarket and Kalshi have now achieved valuations exceeding $10 billion, these results undoubtedly serve as a strong shot in the arm for both the capital markets and user communities. In 2026, the prediction market sector will continue to be a focal point in the crypto space.

Odaily Planet Daily will organize and provide a brief analysis of the overall market data predictions for 2025 in this article, for readers' reference.

According to PredictionIndex.xyz, which has conducted an end-to-end index tracking of the prediction market ecosystem, covering markets, infrastructure, terminals, and new experimental projects, the final results are as follows—

• According to incomplete statistics from the platform, the total predicted market transaction volume in 2025 will be approximately 5.025 billion U.S. dollars.
• Excluding Kalshi and Polymarket, the rest of the ecosystem has a trading volume of $1.25 billion.
• This long-tail market is a key arena for testing and evolving new market designs, incentives, and concepts. Projects involved include azuroprotocol, TrendleFi, hyperstiti0ns, Limitless, MyriadMarkets, overtime, footballdotfun, xodotmarket, predictonfliq, DGbet_official, and BRKTgg.

If such data reveals the current "duopoly" structure of the prediction market, then the 2025 data provided by KalshiData, a platform under Kalshi, offers an even more detailed view of the intensity of today's popular market trends.

Kalshi 2025 Scorecard: Trading Volume Reaches $23.8 Billion, Surpassing 11 Times Year-over-Year Growth

January 3, KalshiData Issue a public statement indicatingIn 2025, Kalshi achieved record growth across all metrics.

In terms of nominal transaction volume, the annual total reached 23.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1,108 percent, or about 12.1 times, year-on-year.

• Which set a monthly record high of $6.38 billion in December;
• The fourth week of December set a new weekly record high of $1.7 billion;
• On December 21, a daily record high of $381.7 million was set.

In terms of the number of transactions, the total for the whole year reached 97 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,680%, or approximately 17.8 times.

• Among these, there were 27.67 million transactions in December;
• The fourth week of December had 7.6 million transactions;
• On December 21st, the number reached 1.5 million, both setting new historical records.

In terms of open interest, the total reached $225 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 169%, or approximately 2.7 times.

• Set a daily record high of $533 million on March 9,
• The first week of March set a new weekly record high of $530 million.
• February set a monthly record high of $495.9 million.

In terms of the number of traded contracts, the total for the whole year reached 23.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,108%, or about 12.1 times.

• December set a monthly record high with 6.38 billion shares.
• The fourth week of December set a weekly record high with 1.7 billion copies;
• On December 21, it set a new single-day historical record with 382 million shares.

According to KalshiData website dataSince its launch on June 28, 2021, Kalshi has achieved a total historical trading volume of $2,725,575,7183, with a daily average trading volume of $16,619,364 and a total of 2,724,227,4566 trades executed.

As for Polymarket, despite its focus on the concept of "on-chain prediction markets," its transaction volume data for 2025 may be somewhat ambiguous, possibly due to differences in statistical methodologies and transaction data sources.

Polymarket 2025 Scorecard: Trading Volume Expected to Reach Approximately $22 to $25 Billion

According to DefiLlama DataIn 2025, Polymarket's annual DEX trading volume is approximately $10.5 billion.

According to Dune Data Panel InformationIn 2025, Polymarket's total annual trading volume was approximately $22.5 billion.

According to Website Information for PredictionIndex.xyzThe cumulative trading volume in Polymarket's history is $23.2 billion.

According to platforms such as Keyrock and Dune,The Forecast Market ReportThe total market trading volume is projected to reach $44 billion in 2025, with Polymarket accounting for approximately $21.5 billion in trading volume (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: In comparison, Kalshi's trading volume is approximately $1.71 billion).

Taking into account the above information and the data provided by the Kalshi official platform earlier in the text, which states that "Kalshi's annual trading volume is $23.8 billion," we take a relatively middle value and estimate that Polymarket's total trading volume in 2025 will be approximately $22 billion.

According to platforms such as Keyrock and DuneThe Forecast Market ReportRelevant information, specifically in terms of prediction market betting events, refers to data or developments that could influence the outcome of the event and thus affect the odds or positions held in the prediction market. This can include news, expert opinions, statistical trends, or any other factors that

2025,Kalshi remains sports-focused, with sports accounting for about 85% of the nominal trading volume.

By comparison, Polymarket demonstrates a more diversified portfolio—

Sports (39%), politics (34%), and cryptocurrency (18%) together drive more than 90% of prediction market betting activity.

In addition, according toVolumeCalculate,

• The economics sector predicted a 905% increase in event-related trading volume, reaching $112 million;
• Trading volume related to technology and science prediction events increased by 1,637%, reaching $120 million.
• Unrealized bets are led by economics (market size growing 7 times to approximately $800 million) and social and cultural factors (market size growing 6 times to approximately $700 million), indicating an increasing use of macro-hedging and long-term strategic positioning.
• Other categories (such as cultural and social) also showed significant growth. The overall contract opening and position-taking trading volume increased from approximately $3.3 billion at the beginning of 2025 to around $13 billion, resulting in a substantial improvement in market depth and liquidity.

Prediction markets also have "off-seasons and peak seasons": the second half of the year becomes a period of explosive trading volume.

It is worth noting that as of late August 2025,There is data showing that...Polymarket's trading volume remains at a market size of around $7.5 to $8 billion. However, with a surge in various unexpected events, political events, and sports events in the second half of the year, both Polymarket and Kalshi have entered a "trading boom period":

In September, Kalshi and Polymarket The total transaction amount reached 144 million US dollars.;

October,Predictive market trading volume reaches $870 million.Kalshi is leading, followed by Polymarket;

November, Kalshi and PolymarketThe total transaction volume is close to 10 billion U.S. dollars.Among them, Kalshi's trading volume reached $580 million, representing a 32% increase from the previous period; Polymarket's trading volume reached $374 million, representing a 23.8% increase from the previous period.

December 2025, analyst Patrick Scott Expressing through a postIn November 2025, the predicted market trading volume is expected to exceed $13 billion, more than triple the trading volume during the peak of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Polymarket, Kalshi, and OPINION account for the majority of the trading volume. Binary options are now applied to political speeches, sports events, and earnings reports of listed companies, becoming a probabilistic layer for global events and news.

Given Kalshi's trading volume of up to $6.38 billion in December, Polymarket's volume is likely to be similarly impressive. The overall prediction market volume for December 2025 could potentially reach a scale of $130–150 billion.

Finally, we can Current statistical data of the PredictionIndex.xyz websiteFor reference, as of the time of writing, the top 5 platforms in terms of predicted trading volume in the market are as follows:

• Kalshi, with a platform historical trading volume of approximately $2.71 billion;
• Polymarket, with a platform historical trading volume of approximately 2.32 billion USD;
• Opinion: The platform's historical trading volume is approximately $1.31 billion. (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: Considering the platform's launch time and mechanisms, there may be issues with inflated trading volumes. The figures here are based solely on data from statistics platforms.)
• Limitless, with a platform historical trading volume of approximately $512 million;
• Azuro, the platform's historical trading volume is approximately 444 million USD.

Previously, Kalshi's CEO estimated the prediction market size to be around $150 billion. Although the total trading volume in 2025 turned out to be only one-third of what he had predicted, considering that the prediction market as a sector was not even fully formed in 2024, his figure of a "$150 billion market size" was not unfounded. With a series of high-profile prediction events such as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections and major sporting events like the World Cup already confirmed, the overall prediction market size may experience a tenfold growth in 2026.

Of course, as we mentioned earlier,"It's Not an Empty Threat: Only 10% of Predictive Markets Will Survive Until Year-End"As mentioned, just because a track is popular doesn't mean that all projects and platforms can thrive. For ordinary players like us, considering limitations such as liquidity depth and capital allocation, it might be a better choice to specialize in 1-3 mainstream platforms.