ChainCatcher report: Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on X that today, 23,000 BTC options expired with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point at $70,000, and a notional value of $1.6 billion. Additionally, 176,000 ETH options expired with a Put/Call Ratio of 1.04, a maximum pain point at $2,150, and a notional value of $370 million. The current crypto market rally has ended, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below the $70,000 psychological level. Over the past week, $75,000 has frequently been cited as a key resistance level; 5% of month-end options are concentrated at this price, and the attempt to break through ultimately failed, causing a pullback to around $70,000. Next Friday marks quarterly settlement, and according to options market data, $75,000 is the price with the highest open interest and represents an absolute resistance level. Below, $65,000, $62,000, and $60,000 are also areas of concentrated open interest and can be considered support levels. This week, the IV and RV for major-term options remained largely unchanged: BTC’s major-term IV is at 50%, while ETH’s is at 70%; RV continues to decline, causing VRP to rise steadily. Only 5% of total open interest expired today, marking another record low—despite volatility, Bitcoin trading activity remains at an extreme low. As prices retreated, skew declined across the board; the market remains in a bearish phase, and bullish sentiment remains extremely fragile.
19.7M BTC and ETH options expiry hits $70,000 pain point
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Summary
Today, 23,000 BTC options ($1.6B notional) and 176,000 ETH options ($370M notional) expired. BTC’s put/call ratio was 0.88, with maximum pain at $70,000. ETH’s put/call ratio reached 1.04, with maximum pain at $2,150. BTC briefly fell below $70K and failed to break above $75K, the key options strike price. BTC’s implied volatility remains at 50%, while ETH’s is at 70%, with realized volatility declining.
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