I made the dumbest decision you can make while doing prediction markets. It looked like such an easy bet at first glance. I had a hit rate of 90%. I was winning one World Cup bet after another after opening a fresh account just for the World Cup. I hit a few draws, goals, corners, and then I started to think: I know what I am doing. And that was the first mistake. I thought I knew what I was doing, and then I started to top up my bets. I totally lost my strategy. The first thing, like in trading, is that you should have a strategy. How you go in, how you go out, and how you evaluate your prediction. But what I did was totally emotionally driven. Let’s say totally stupid. And here is the point where you can hear what happened. I thought the Spain against Cape Verde game was a very easy one. Easy win. Easy goals. They would just move it over. And then I saw that nothing happened in the first 35 minutes. Then I started to add: There will be 2 goals. There will be 3 goals. And I ended up losing all the money I had won in the previous days. Here is how you do not do it. If you do a bet, do not revenge bet. That is the worst thing. Same as trading 101. Never make a revenge trade because that is what is going to kill you. So Spain-Cape Verde killed my flow and my prediction arc. But I am fighting back. After 24 hours of a break, I am back. My first trade, my first prediction, was that Portugal would win against Congo. So far, so good. What was your biggest prediction trauma?
DjaniShare

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