Bitcoin Halving Countdown 2024 - Everything You Need to Know

The Bitcoin halving of 2024 looms large in the dynamic crypto market and captures the attention of Bitcoin enthusiasts and global investors alike. The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to occur sometime in April 2024, when the block rewards will reduce by 50% from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 per block. 

Following the Litecoin halving in 2023, all eyes now turn to Bitcoin halving. This event, which occurs approximately every four years, represents a pivotal moment in the life cycle of the world's first cryptocurrency. It's a time of anticipation, speculation, and profound economic implications. 

Bitcoin halving reduces rewards for miners and could impact BTC mining profitability, forcing Bitcoin miners to adapt and become more efficient. Historical data also suggests that Bitcoin mining could significantly impact Bitcoin price. While halving is generally bullish for BTC, it can introduce short-term price volatility. As the world's largest cryptocurrency in terms of popularity and market cap, this milestone event can also impact the wider cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin halving is estimated to occur in April 2024. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Coutdown Timer: Updated in Real Time

Bitcoin halving is an event that happens approximately every four years, or after about 210,000 blocks are mined (at a pace of approximately one block every 10 minutes). This is ingrained in Bitcoin's source code, cutting down the block reward for miners in half for every block mined, hence the term "halving."

The halving process is a key part of the Bitcoin system because it controls the supply of new bitcoins entering the market. By reducing the reward for mining, the halving process slows the rate at which new bitcoins are generated, thereby controlling inflation. It's also an event that often sparks significant interest and speculation within the cryptocurrency market.

Mining a block refers to validating transactions and recording them into a block that gets added to the Bitcoin blockchain. When Bitcoin was first created in 2009, the reward for mining a block was 50 bitcoins. Since then, halving events over the years has slashed the Bitcoin mining block rewards by 50% each time to the present rate of 6.25 BTC. 

Why Does Bitcoin Halving Happen?

Bitcoin halving is a part of the Bitcoin monetary policy, embedded into the Bitcoin protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin. The halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, mimicking the scarcity and deflationary aspects of precious metals like gold. 

Bitcoin's Proof of Work (PoW) consensus mechanism requires miners to solve complex mathematical problems, using significant computational power, to add a new block to the blockchain, for which they are rewarded with a portion of the mined Bitcoins. This process, while energy-intensive, secures the network and ensures the validity of transactions.

On the other hand, Ethereum transitioned to a Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus in September 2022 as part of the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade. The former PoW blockchain now uses chosen validators to create a new block based on the amount of Ethereum they hold and are willing to 'stake' as collateral, is less energy-intensive, and still maintains network security and integrity.

Fun fact: As of August 2023, the BTC circulating supply is over 19.46 million out of the total supply of 21 million. The halving events slow down the rate at which new BTC is mined, extending the date by which all 21 million BTC will be mined. There are approximately 31 Bitcoin halvings left. Consequently, based on Bitcoin's four-year halving schedule, the final Bitcoin is projected to be mined around 2140.

Every Bitcoin block comprises new transactions that have occurred within Bitcoin's network. Miners commit these transactions to the blockchain and are granted a specific amount of Bitcoin in exchange for their services. 

The vast number of globally distributed Bitcoin miners prevent a 51% attack on the Bitcoin blockchain by maintaining a decentralized network where no single miner or group of miners controls more than 50% of the total mining power, making it extremely difficult and costly to manipulate the blockchain.

Bitcoin halving works automatically, with the code executing an "update" every 210,000 blocks, cutting down the mining rewards given to the miners for adding a block to the blockchain. 

Bitcoin halvings occur approximately every four years or after every 210,000 blocks. The 4th halving, expected in April 2024, will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC at a block height of 840,000, marking another milestone in Bitcoin's economic model.

Timeline of Bitcoin Halving Events

Each Bitcoin halving event is tracked and observed with the help of the Bitcoin halving clock and Bitcoin halving countdown timers.

Fun fact: Even though 100% of BTC will be mined around the year 2140, more than 98% will be mined by 2030. 

Born during the 2008-09 global financial crisis when leading fiat currencies like the US dollar depreciated sharply, Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin to counter the inflationary risks associated with fiat currencies. Bitcoin (BTC) is designed as a store of value with a fixed supply of 21 million. 

Bitcoin halving directly impacts the number of new bitcoins the network generates and the slashing of block rewards following each halving event creates an artificial scarcity by reducing the supply of new bitcoins entering the market. 

Unlike several other deflationary cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin relies on halving mechanisms to support its value despite its inherent inflationary design until all 21 million BTC get mined. 

Bitcoin halving affects the ecosystem in two main parties, namely: 

• Miners, which help validate blocks and maintain decentralization

• Investors, which trade or hold BTC 

Let's see how the halving affects both parties!

Bitcoin halving directly impacts mining profitability by reducing the block reward or the number of bitcoins miners receive for validating transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain.

While it can lead to short-term challenges for some miners, it plays a crucial role in maintaining the cryptocurrency's value and scarcity over time. 

Reduced Mining Rewards 

The reduction in block rewards after each halving event significantly affects miners by cutting their rewards for verifying transactions in half, thereby reducing miners' income in the short term as they receive fewer bitcoins for their efforts.

It can result in smaller and less efficient miners becoming unprofitable, leading to consolidation in the mining ecosystem as larger players dominate. However, Bitcoin mining could turn profitable despite the reduction in block rewards if the value of Bitcoin increases in the future. 

Miners can mine BTC and sell them at a higher price when the market turns bullish. They can use hedge strategies in the futures market by leveraging Bitcoin to maximize their profits. 

Impact on Mining Difficulty and Profitability 

The reduction in rewards could temporarily bring down the mining difficulty if some miners exit the Bitcoin network due to a decline in profitability.

Changes in Bitcoin Mining Difficulty After Halving | Source: CoinWarz

However, it's important to note that the mining difficulty was almost not affected by the past halvings because of the inherent long-term investment commitment of BTC miners. Investing in computing power is expensive, and any downtime can contribute negatively to potential miner gains. As past halving events didn't witness obvious dips in mining difficulty, most miners choose to continue mining post-halving (even if the current situation is not profitable) in hopes of making a profit in the next bull run. 

Bitcoin Network's Security 

Bitcoin halving can indirectly impact the security of the Bitcoin network by increasing the threshold of miner profitability. If the price of BTC doesn't catch up fast enough, some miners may be outpriced and forced to stop their operations.  

This could theoretically concentrate mining power among fewer participants, potentially making the network more susceptible to a 51% attack. However, Bitcoin's network is currently incredibly large and well-diversified, and minor dents in the amount of computing power working towards securing the blockchain should be insignificant.

Unlike miners who fear Bitcoin halving and pray for a quick price recovery in order to remain profitable, investors look at every halving event with expectations of major profits. 

Bitcoin halving reduces the creation of new Bitcoins by half, potentially increasing scarcity if demand continues to rise, thereby driving BTC price appreciation.

While halving events are generally bullish for BTC, they can introduce short-term price volatility. Traders and investors may react to the event with uncertainty, leading to volatility in the days and weeks surrounding a halving.

However, while the halving event is pivotal in Bitcoin's history, the extent of its impact on Bitcoin prices also depends on several fundamental drivers, including:

• Global macroeconomic conditions, such as changes to the US Federal Reserve's interest rates could cause the fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin.

• Institutional investor sentiment toward Bitcoin, such as the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the market. If the SEC passes Bitcoin spot ETF applications, it would drive higher institutional interest in investing in Bitcoin, supporting the BTC price and vice versa. 

• Technical developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as Bitcoin Ordinals, can also affect the market demand for Bitcoin as an investment opportunity. These developments serve as building blocks that can generate interest among users and investors, potentially leading to increased demand for Bitcoin and a corresponding increase in its price. 

• The overall crypto market sentiment, which can be influenced by a variety of factors, including technological advancements such as artificial intelligence (AI) and changes in the global economic landscape, can also impact Bitcoin's price. 

Based on Bitcoin price charts and past halvings, the price could take several months to over a year after the event to experience significant upticks. Let's take a look at past events, and how they impacted the price of BTC.

Historical data suggests that Bitcoin halving significantly impacts Bitcoin's price. Here's how: 

• Accumulation phase: Bitcoin has experienced some market volatility (but generally a slight uptrend) that is likely caused by pre-halving accumulation before the first, second, third, and before the current halving. The average accumulation cycle lasted between 13 and 22 months. As mentioned, Bitcoin has either traded slightly up or sideways during this period. 

• Bull phase: The stagnation/accumulation phase was followed by a bull phase, each time for a period between 10 and 15 months. BTC suffered at most one major pullback in that timeframe, with its price recovering quickly, and reaching new highs after that.

• Pullback/bear phase: All post-halving bull phases ended with a correction. While the first halving pullback lasted over 600 days, the last two lasted about a year. 

The last halving event cycle started with an accumulation phase that ranged from the bear market low of about $3,300 to just below $14,000. This phase was followed by a spike towards the upside that brought BTC to over $69,000. However, as mentioned, BTC did encounter one major pullback during the bull phase. Lastly, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap entered a bear market, with its price dropping over 77%. 

Bitcoin Halving Chart on a Logarithmic Scale

Bitcoin Halving Chart | Source: KuCoin TradingView

Based on previous market cycles, we can assume that BTC is currently in the pre-halving accumulation phase, with its price trading sideways for just under a year. We can witness increased market uncertainty and lots of conflicting news surrounding the space. However, the vast majority of analysts, institutional investors, and financial prediction models forecast a bright future for BTC in the coming months and years.

If history repeats itself, we can expect sideways trading or slight pullbacks/pushes for a little less than a year (250-350 days). This would extend the accumulation phase past the BTC halving, preparing the market for another strong upswing and a bull market. 

When it comes to price predictions, we can first visit the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, which predicts a price of around $460,000 by May 2025, and a high of just under $200,000 in 2024. However, we can see that the previous bull runs netted lower and lower percentage gains. Judging by the previous upswing reduction in percentage terms, we can expect a push that won't exceed 500%. However, this does not take into account the rising institutional interest from the US, nor the potential BTC spot ETF which could bring immense capital towards the largest cryptocurrency. 

Let's explore what various analysts say about the BTC halving: 

• According to Pantera Capital's research, Bitcoin is due to hit nearly $150,000 during its next four-year halving cycle, Pantera Capital believes.

• The Lowest Price Forward metric predicts BTC will pass the $100,000 mark by 2026.

• Bitcoin investor, author, and co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp Jesse Myers predicted BTC to push past $100,000, but not before the next halving. 

• Author of the popular book, "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, also agreed on the price prediction of over $100,000 post-halving. 

• Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream and one of the people cited by Satoshi Nakamoto in the Bitcoin whitepaper, forecasted BTC reaching a price of over $100,000 even before the next Bitcoin halving.

• Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, shares the sentiment with Adam Back, expecting a new high Bitcoin before the halving, not after.

• Standard Chartered, an investment banking firm, has revised its Bitcoin prediction to $120,000 by the end of 2024.

• The CEO of investment management firm Ark Invest, Cathie Wood, is confident in Bitcoin's price reaching $1.5 million by 2030.

As the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and market dominance, Bitcoin's price movemements play a significant role in determining the price direction in most (if not all) altcoins. Some altcoins, like Ethereum (ETH), have especially strong market ties to Bitcoin. When Bitcoin experiences significant price movements due to its halving, it can influence the broader market, including altcoins like Ethereum.

Renowned crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe recently uncovered his opinion on optimal times to invest in altcoins pre-Bitcoin halving. Van de Poppe stated that the ideal period to invest in altcoins is 8 to 10 months prior to Bitcoin halving, as the confidence in the market is at its lowest.

Drawing on historical data and different crypto pair cycles, van de Poppe highlighted that the ETH/USD to ETH/BTC pair reached its cycle low in September 2019, as well as previously in October 2015 — both exactly 252 days before the Bitcoin halving events. 

Note: If history repeats itself, the aforementioned trading pairs will reach their cycle low in late August or early September 2023. 

The approaching 2024 Bitcoin halving and its preceding months might bring significant price volatility. Increased investor interest could yield higher opportunities to generate profits when trading Bitcoin. Here are ways to trade the Bitcoin halving via KuCoin:

1. Buy and Hold Bitcoin 

If you are a beginner and don't want to miss out on the potential BTC post-halving spike, KuCoin is a great place to start. 

Buying BTC on KuCoin and HODLing it until the next bull run is a great strategy, especially with the support KuCoin offers in terms of the ways you can buy Bitcoin, as well as the deep liquidity that will help you get in and out of your positions as quickly as possible. 

2. Dollar-Cost-Averaging into Bitcoin 

If you prefer time in the market to timing the market, or simply don’t want to commit to a large position at once — dollar-cost averaging into your BTC investment is a great way to grow your Bitcoin investment. 

The DCA strategy will average out your entry price, and let you invest smaller amounts in regular intervals. 

3. Automate BTC Trading With KuCoin Trading Bots

Leverage our trading bots to automate your BTC investments  and earn higher profits from your trades. KuCoin's trading bots facilitate automated, high-frequency trading across diverse strategies like  Futures Grid, Spot Grid, Smart Rebalance, Martingale, Infinity Grid, and DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). 

Some bots, like the Infinity Grid, are extremely well-suited for swing trading uptrends. On the other hand, if you want to take things slow, running a DCA bot to automate your investment activities could be the right thing to do before the halving event. . 

Choose your preferred trading strategy, customize your parameters, and sit back stress-free to automate your Bitcoin trading experience with KuCoin. 

4. Buy Low and Sell High on the KuCoin Spot Market

If you want to play a more active role during the BTC halving, you might consider trading rather than investing. KuCoin offers deep liquidity in BTC on our platform and over 250 BTC trading pairs for spot trading. 

By actively implement your trading strategies through proper utilization of sentiment,  fundamental, and technical analysis, you can fully capitalize on the upcoming halving event.

5. Go Long or Short on Bitcoin

If you are a high-risk and high-reward trader, you can go long or short on Bitcoin with KuCoin Futures trading and leverage the market volatility surrounding the halving event. It's an effective way to speculate on price swings expected in the market leading up to the event over the coming months. 

Make sure to DYOR as leverage could magnify your losses if you do not control your risks properly. Set proper take profit and stop loss levels to lock in your profits or limit your losses. KuCoin offers several advanced tools to help you prevent letting your emotions get in your way. 

6. Put Your BTC to Work and Earn Passive Income While Holding

In addition to trading Bitcoin across various markets, you can leverage the various passive income generation opportunities KuCoin offers to grow your crypto holdings. KuCoin Earn offers several investment products to make the most of your bitcoins and generate passive income. Stake or lock them, deposit them in our Savings product for a more balanced approach towards crypto investing. 

Put your existing BTC holdings to work by lending liquidity in Bitcoin to the KuCoin platform. Visit our Crypto Lending section to review the latest APYs on BTC and subscribe to the product of your choice. 

If you're more savvy and keen on higher yields, check out KuCoin’s structured wealth generation products. Choose from Shark Fin, Dual Investment, Snowball, Twin Win, Convert Plus, Future Plus, and other limited-time promotions with higher returns to grow your Bitcoin investments.  

7. Explore BTC Arbitrage Opportunities on KuCoin P2P  

Visit the KuCoin P2P marketplace to find arbitrage trading opportunities in Bitcoin (BTC). Take advantage of price differences across the market to buy low and sell high with P2P trading on KuCoin.

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5. Litecoin Halving Countdown 2023: What to Know

1. Is Bitcoin Halving Predictable?

Yes, Bitcoin halving events are predictable based on the blockchain's established schedule, which reduces block rewards every 210,000 blocks.

2. When Did the Last Bitcoin Halving Occur?

The last Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, bringing down the block rewards from 12.5 BTC in 2016 to the present 6.25 BTC per block. This event, noted in the Bitcoin halving chart history, marked the third halving in the history of Bitcoin.

3. What Is the Long-Term Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Price?

The halving reduces the supply of new bitcoins, which can increase the price of BTC if demand for bitcoins remains strong. However, it's not guaranteed, as many other factors influence the price of Bitcoin.

While historical data suggests that Bitcoin's price tends to rise after halving events due to increased scarcity, it's important to note that the cryptocurrency market is influenced by many factors, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

4. Does Bitcoin Halving Impact the Network's Transaction Speed or Cost?

The halving event itself does not directly impact the transaction speed or cost. These are more related to the Bitcoin network congestion and mining difficulty.

5. What Happens When All 21 Million Bitcoins Are Mined?

Once all 21 million bitcoins are mined, no new bitcoins will be created, and transaction fees will compensate miners.

6. Are There Other Cryptocurrencies with Halving Events?

Yes, several other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, have implemented halving events similar to Bitcoin as part of their monetary policies.

7. Is Bitcoin Halving Good or Bad?

It depends on who is asked. For miners, halving can sometimes be a bad thing because of reduced income in the short term. But, if the market goes in their favor, the price would rise and provide a return similar to what it used to be.

For HODLers and traders, halving can only be an event that brings a bigger chance of prices rising.