1. Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a comprehensive correction due to the bearish impact of macro employment data, with Bitcoin declining by 4.36% and its market capitalization share rising back to 62.17%, indicating a shift of funds back into mainstream assets for risk aversion. ETH and BTC exhibited a high degree of correlation, with Altcoins generally underperforming the market and risk appetite significantly contracting. On-chain data showed a decline in trading activity, with high-priced chips becoming concentrated, indicating that the market has entered a consolidation period. Trading volume has declined for two consecutive weeks, and overall sentiment has become cautious. In the short term, the cryptocurrency market will enter a "macro-sensitive" phase, which will respond significantly to economic indicators such as employment data and inflation, until data repeatedly confirms that the economic situation is good. Although there is still pressure in the short term, the current chip structure has partially released selling pressure, and the downward space is expected to be limited.
2. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and economic recession and concerns about independence have resurfaced
2.1 The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged as expected; factors such as the rebound in inflation, sluggish employment data, and additional comments from dovish members have increased expectations of a rate cut in September; the crisis over the independence of the Fed and US data has resurfaced.
7.30 - The ADP employment report for July in the United States showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, higher than expected.
7.30 - US GDP grew by 3.0% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, higher than expected.
7.31 - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.
7.31 - Federal Reserve FOMC Statement: Inflation remains slightly elevated, employment is robust, economic growth decelerated in the first half of the year, and uncertainty remains elevated. No intention to signal any imminent interest rate cuts.
7.31 - Powell: 30% or 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; interest rate costs of the government are not considered in monetary policy formulation.
7.31 - The annualized core PCE price index in the United States recorded 2.8% in June, marking a new high since February, while the market expectation was 2.7%.
7.31 - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.
8.1 - In July, the number of non-farm jobs in the United States increased by 73,000, which was lower than market expectations; the unemployment rate recorded was 4.2%, which met expectations and was higher than the previous value.
8.1 - The non-farm payroll data for May and June was significantly revised downwards by 258,000, representing the largest downward revision since the COVID-19 pandemic
8.1 - Trump: The non-farm payroll data is manipulated to embarrass me; I have instructed my team to immediately fire the Secretary of Labor, and Powell should also "retire".
8.1 - Federal Reserve Board Member Kuegler Announces Resignation
CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary
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MEETING DATE
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300-325
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325-350
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350-375
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375-400
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400-425
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425-450
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2025/9/17
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0.0%
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0.0%
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0.0%
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0.0%
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81.5%
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18.5%
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|
2025/10/29
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0.0%
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0.0%
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0.0%
|
62.8%
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33.0%
|
4.3%
|
|
2025/12/10
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0.0%
|
0.0%
|
50.0%
|
39.0%
|
10.1%
|
0.9%
|
2.2 Tariffs were postponed again, with tax rates increased for countries such as India, Brazil, and Canada. The China-US tariff negotiations were extended for 90 days, while the US and South Korea reached a trade agreement.
7.29 - Trump: Global tariffs will range from 15% to 20%.
7.30 - Consensus reached during China-US talks: Both sides will continue to promote the scheduled extension of the 90-day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US and the countermeasures taken by China.
7.31 - Trump announces trade agreement with South Korea: 15% tariffs + $350 billion investment provided.
7.31 - Trump: India will pay a 25% tariff and fines; a 50% tariff will be imposed on Brazil, taking effect in 7 days.
8.1 - Trump plans to impose higher tariffs on several countries that failed to reach a trade agreement by the Friday deadline.
8.1 - Trump will raise tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%.
8.1 -- Ministry of Commerce of China: China and the United States will continue to promote the scheduled extension of the 90-day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States and the countermeasures taken by China.
8.4 -- The effective date of Trump's reciprocal tariffs has been postponed by one week to August 7th.
8.4 -- Trump: I have ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in the corresponding regions.
3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance
3.1 Macroeconomic disturbances trigger risk repricing, US stocks pull back from highs
Driven by extreme optimism and corporate profits in July, US stocks once again hit a new high on Monday; however, as macroeconomic events unfolded intensively, with Powell's hawkish stance, inflation rebounding, employment declining, and the US statistical data system sparking a trust crisis, investor confidence plummeted. This week, US stocks experienced their steepest correction in nearly two months, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq falling 2.36% and 2.17% respectively. Small-cap stocks were under even greater pressure, with the Russell 2000 falling 4.17%. The weak labor market increased expectations of a rate cut in September, and US Treasury yields plummeted. In addition, the Volatility Index (VIX) surged above 20 on Friday, and market panic returned to the levels seen during the geopolitical conflict in June. Overall, the market has entered a phase of reassessment regarding economic fundamentals and policy paths.
Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends
3.2 Macro shocks impact the cryptocurrency market,Volatility may climb
Under the impact of multiple factors during the macro "Super Week", Bitcoin and US stocks experienced a synchronous correction, with a cumulative decline of 4.36% this week, fluctuating within the range of $111.9k-$119.8k. The market sentiment indicator "Fear & Greed Index" quickly fell from "Greed" to "Neutral", reflecting a significant decline in investor confidence in the short term.
It is noteworthy that the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and US stocks has rebounded to 0.72, indicating that the crypto market is once again highly correlated with macroeconomic fundamentals. This trend suggests that the crypto market will also enter a phase of reassessment regarding macroeconomic conditions, potentially entering a "macro-sensitive" stage where it will respond significantly to economic indicators such as employment data and inflation.
Figure 2: BTC Price Trends
3.3 Both market capitalization and trading volume have declined, risk appetite continues to contract
As of August 3, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrency assets had fallen to $3.651 trillion, marking a 5.9% week-on-week decrease. Market trading volume also declined for the second consecutive week, with a weekly total trading volume of $1.14735 trillion, a 13.25% decrease from the previous week, reflecting a generally cautious trading sentiment. Structurally, Bitcoin trading volume amounted to $463.63 billion, albeit a 5.01% decrease from the previous week, its market share rebounded to 40.56%, indicating a relatively concentrated capital flow back to mainstream assets. In contrast, the trading volume of altcoins decreased by 18.06% from the previous week, with their popularity rapidly cooling down, further corroborating the continuous contraction of market risk appetite and exerting significant pressure on non-mainstream assets.
Figure 3：Trading Volume of BTC and Altcoins
4. Crypto Trend Analysis
4.1 The turnover on the chain has slowed down, the market is not panicking
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin addresses have moved a total of 249,000 BTC this week, a decrease of 32.1% compared to the previous week, and the turnover activity continues to decline compared to the previous week. From the perspective of token distribution, profit-taking selling pressure has slowed down across the board, and there has been no panic selling:
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The short-term profit-taking range of $103,000-$110,000 remains the main area for reduction, with about 65,000 coins being sold at a profit, a decrease of 57% compared to last week;
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The reduction of mid-priced chips (75k-100k) is about 41,000, a decrease of 20% compared to last week;
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The reduction of low-priced chips (less than 75k) totaled 62,000 pieces, a decrease of 30% compared to the previous period;
Meanwhile, an additional 189,000 coins were added in the $113k–$115k range, indicating that the market is filling the gap from the previous rise and testing the effectiveness of support in this area. It is noteworthy that the accumulation of chips in the $117k–$118k range continues, which may become an important cost area for institutional fixed-income investment.
Figure 4: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution
4.2 The institutional investors have established a solid position in the market, 110k is a potential support level
After a week of high-level volatility, the position volume within the range of $116,900-$118,200 (116935-118166) has reached a high of 1,135,782 BTC, significantly exceeding that of other price ranges. This may indicate a large-scale position building by listed companies in the near future, characterized by low sensitivity and strong willingness to hold positions. The previously empty chip zone in the 110k-115k range has been replenished in the 112k-115k range, with 110k as a potential test support level. The 104k range has chip support of approximately 440,000 BTC, providing a technical foundation for mid-term defensive position building; while the 97k range, as the third structural support, has completed sufficient turnover, forming a bottom chip support zone, which is expected to provide solid support in the event of a deep market correction.
Figure 5: BTC Chip Structure
4.3 Market Summary and Outlook: Macro sensitive period is approaching, short-term selling pressure is being digested, but volatility risks still exist
This week, the crypto market experienced a comprehensive correction due to the bearish impact of macro employment data, with Bitcoin declining by 4.36% and its market capitalization share rising back to 62.17%, indicating capital flowing back to mainstream assets for risk aversion. Ethereum and BTC exhibited a high degree of correlation, with Altcoins generally underperforming the market and risk appetite significantly contracting. On-chain data showed a decline in trading activity, with high-priced chips concentrated, indicating that the market has entered a consolidation period. Trading volume has declined for two consecutive weeks, and overall sentiment has become cautious.
Outlook for next week: The crypto market will enter a "macro-sensitive" phase, which will have a pronounced reaction to economic indicators such as employment data and inflation, until the data repeatedly confirms a healthy economic state. Although there is still pressure in the short term, the current chip structure has partially released selling pressure, and it is expected that the downward space is limited, making it difficult for the situation of "recession panic" in August last year to occur again.
Figure 6: BTC Chip Supply Situation
4.3 ETF slowdown, Listed companies take over
Recently, the dominant force in the Bitcoin market has shifted, with listed companies emerging as the core force driving bullish sentiment. They have collectively increased their holdings by 33,832 BTC, demonstrating their confidence in firmly executing their reserve strategy within the current price range. In contrast, the momentum of Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly weakened, experiencing the first weekly net outflow in nearly seven weeks, totaling $640 million. Notably, the single-day net outflow on Friday reached $810 million, indicating a rise in the phased wait-and-see sentiment among institutional funds. Meanwhile, private enterprises and government agencies have only marginally increased their holdings, adding only 3 and 17 BTC respectively, suggesting that other major players, apart from listed companies, have not yet formed a unified entry trend. Overall, the recent market structure is gradually transitioning from being jointly dominated by ETFs and institutions to a strategic allocation phase led by listed companies.
Figure 7: BTC Buyer Analysis
4.4 ETH market returns to the rhythm dominated by Bitcoin
This week, the correlation coefficient between the ETH/BTC exchange rate and BTC price has surged from -0.55 to 0.95, indicating that ETH has ended its independent upward trend and reverted to a highly synchronized trend with BTC. This change suggests that market funds may be refocusing from the rotation of altcoins back to the dominant trend of BTC.
On-chain data shows that ETH tokens with costs near $2,750 have been profitably liquidated in the range of $3,900 to $3,580. From the perspective of token distribution structure, the main pressure area above the price is located at $3,683, with a high volume of 990,000 ETH, which may constitute short-term resistance; while there are multiple support zones below the price, namely $2,920 (800,000 ETH), $2,790 (920,000 ETH), and $2,754 (2,080,000 ETH). If the price rebounds, these areas may become key support levels, especially the huge position near $2,750, which may provide strong support for ETH.
Figure 8: ETH Chip Supply Situation
4.5 Altcoins generally experienced a pullback,Risk appetite has cooled down
As pointed out in the previous analysis, the recent general rise in altcoins has a low correlation with project fundamentals, and is more driven by the increase in market risk appetite and the rotation effect of funds. This market characteristic implies that once Bitcoin enters a correction phase, altcoins often experience a more significant catch-up decline.
This week's market trend has validated this judgment - as BTC prices fell, Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance climbed to 62.17%, marking a 1.13% increase from the previous week and achieving consecutive growth for two weeks. In terms of the performance of sub-sectors, the vast majority of Altcoin sectors, including ETH, underperformed BTC, further confirming that market funds are withdrawing from high-risk assets and risk appetite is contracting.
Figure 9: BTC Price & Crypto Sector Correlation
4.6 ETH ecosystem compliance narrative becomes a safe haven for funds
Although most altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in the past month, risk appetite has noticeably contracted after Bitcoin began to show a trend of correction this week. Only DeFi, ETH, Staking, and Tokenized Asset (RWA) have continued to perform strongly, outperforming BTC.
From the perspective of fundamental narrative and token performance correlation, these sectors have a strong correlation with ETH:
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Fundamental narrative: The leading applications of DeFi, Staking, and RWA market capitalization are all on Ethereum, and these three narratives align with the long-term narrative following the passage of the Stablecoin Act and Charity Act;
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Token price correlation: The correlation coefficients between ETH and DeFi, Staking, and RWA are 77, 100, and 98, respectively, while the performance of Ethereum's strongly correlated Layer 2 tokens is close to 64.
It indicates that the market is not blindly speculating on the ETH ecosystem, but rather focuses on the narrative of compliance.
Figure 10: Crypto Sector Performance & Correlation
5. Regulatory Trends
America
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the "physical subscription and redemption" of Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and relaxed restrictions on options positions.
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Crypto assets held in Coinbase Futures for at least 6 months will automatically be approved for listing on ETP
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The US SEC postpones its decision on the Grayscale Litecoin ETF.
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U.S. Senator Lummis has proposed a new bill that calls for the inclusion of cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgage loans.
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The chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stated that most cryptocurrency assets are not securities and clear rules will be formulated.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched the Project Crypto initiative to promote the on-chain transformation of financial markets.
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The White House Digital Asset Working Group released a report titled "Strengthening U.S. Leadership in Digital Financial Technology".
Asia
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The Democratic Party of Korea submitted its first special bill on stablecoin.
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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the implementation of a regulatory regime for stablecoin issuers.
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The Osaka Securities Exchange in Japan plans to list cryptocurrency derivatives.
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Indonesia increases tax on cryptocurrency exchange sales and miners.
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Algeria bans all cryptocurrency activities, with violators facing imprisonment and fines.
Europe
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The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced that it will open up retail investors to participate in trading of crypto-backed exchange-traded notes (ETNs).
6. The rules for crypto-asset ETFs are clear, Listed companies continue to establish cryptocurrency reserves
Regulation and issuance of stable coins are accelerating
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The Democratic Party of Korea submitted its first special bill on stablecoin.
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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the implementation of a regulatory regime for stablecoin issuers.
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Interactive Brokers plans to issue a stablecoin.
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The Trump Media and Technology Group has disclosed plans related to the "Truth" token and wallet.
The ETF market is experiencing accelerated development
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the "physical subscription and redemption" of Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and relaxed restrictions on options positions.
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The US SEC postpones its decision on the Grayscale Litecoin ETF.
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Several companies have submitted revised S-1 documents for the registration statement of SOL ETF.
Listed companies continue to make strategic layouts in cryptocurrency assets
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MARA Holdings raised $950 million through issuing convertible bonds to increase its holdings of Bitcoin.
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Strategy raised $2.521 billion to repurchase 21,021 Bitcoin, bringing the total holdings to 628,791 Bitcoin.
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US-listed company ZOOZ announced a private placement of $180 million to launch a Bitcoin Treasury Reserve strategy.
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ATNF, a listed company in the US stock market, plans to raise approximately $425 million to transform into an Ethereum treasury reserve company.
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Canaan Technology announced that Bitcoin has been designated as the company's primary long-term reserve asset.
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JPMorgan Chase has established a strategic partnership with Coinbase.
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Metaplanet plans to raise $3.7 billion to facilitate its large-scale Bitcoin acquisition plan.
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Tether holds $127 billion in US Treasury bonds and reported a net profit of approximately $4.9 billion in the second quarter.
Other
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PayPal allows American merchants to accept payments in over 100 cryptocurrencies.
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Grab, the ride-hailing giant in Southeast Asia, has already accepted cryptocurrencies such as BTC for payments in the Philippines.
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The BTC whale address, which has been dormant for over 14 years, is suspected to have resumed selling.
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eToro will launch tokenized US stocks on the Ethereum blockchain.
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Linea announces its token economics: the total supply is approximately 72 billion tokens, with 9% airdropped to early users.
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Nearly 560,000 ETH are currently queued to exit the Ethereum PoS network, while over 123,000 ETH are waiting to join.
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Kraken is seeking to raise approximately $500 million, with a valuation of $15 billion.
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Bakkt announced a share placement to raise $75 million for purchasing BTC.
7. Next week's outlook
AUG 2025 Crypto Calendar
August 4th: The second phone model from Solana Mobile, Seeker, will start shipping on August 4th, and will also introduce the SKR token
August 5: US ISM non-manufacturing data for July; ENA unlocks a circulation share of 2.70%, worth approximately $95.8 million
August 6th: MAVIA unlocks 23.03% of the circulation, worth approximately $1.9 million
August 7: The effective date of Trump's reciprocal tariffs has been postponed by one week to August 7; the Hong Kong RWA registration platform will be launched on August 7; Bank of England policy interest rate
August 8: The United States demands that Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement before August 8; IMX unlocks 1.30% of the circulation, worth approximately $12.2 million
8. Reference
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defillama.com
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coinmarketcap.com
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tradingview.com
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cryptoslam.io
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token.unlocks.app/
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dune.com
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itez.com/events
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cryptorank.io/
