Ethereum TD Sequential Flashes Dual Buy Signals: Is $3,000 ETH Next?
2026/08/10 15:20:00
Ethereum’s monthly chart is flashing a technical setup that has caught the attention of crypto traders. On August 9, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted two TD Sequential buy signals on ETH’s monthly timeframe: a Black 9 and an S13. Martinez described the combination as a macro bullish development and argued that, if the signals are validated, Ethereum could begin another rally toward $3,000. He also pointed to previous monthly TD signals that appeared near several major ETH trend changes over the past four years.
At the time of writing, ETH is trading around $1,625, meaning a move to $3,000 would require an advance of roughly 85%. That is a substantial move, but the more important question is not whether Ethereum can mathematically rise that far. It is whether the current TD Sequential readings are identifying a genuine macro bottom. Understanding that distinction requires looking at what Black 9 and S13 actually mean, how similar signals performed in the past, whether institutional demand is returning, and what ETH must do before $3,000 becomes a realistic market target.
Why Ethereum’s Dual Buy Signal Matters
The first reason traders are paying attention is the timeframe. Martinez’s signal comes from Ethereum’s monthly chart, where each candle represents an entire month of trading. A setup on this timeframe therefore reflects a much longer cycle of buying and selling pressure than the signals traders frequently watch on hourly or daily charts. A monthly reversal signal does not imply an immediate rally, but it can carry more significance for investors trying to identify broader market-cycle changes.
The second reason is that two different stages of the DeMARK framework are appearing in the same broad area. DeMARK’s Sequential methodology revolves around a 9 Setup followed by a possible 13 Countdown. The Setup measures whether a directional move has persisted long enough to show signs of exhaustion, while the Countdown attempts to identify a more advanced stage at which buyers or sellers may be running out of momentum. DeMARK describes the completion of the 13 Countdown as an area where the prevailing trend becomes vulnerable to reversal.
That means the current Ethereum story is not simply “a buy indicator flashed.” The technical argument is that a Black 9 and an S13 are both pointing toward exhaustion in the previous bearish trend. If that interpretation is correct, Ethereum may be moving from a phase dominated by sellers into one where downside momentum becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. But exhaustion is only the first step. A market can stop falling without immediately beginning a major bull run, which is why price confirmation remains essential.
What Do Black 9 and S13 Actually Mean?
A TD Sequential Buy Setup occurs when there are nine consecutive closes below the close four bars earlier. The indicator is not measuring whether ETH is fundamentally undervalued, nor is it directly calculating how high the asset should trade. It is measuring persistence. When the required pattern reaches nine, the framework suggests that the existing bearish sequence may have become mature enough for traders to begin watching for a change in direction.
The 13 Countdown goes further. Unlike the Setup, Countdown numbers do not have to appear on consecutive candles. The process continues to compare price action against earlier bars in an effort to measure the depletion of the side controlling the prevailing trend. DeMARK states that once Countdown reaches 13, the market becomes prone to a reversal, although the framework also uses additional concepts such as Risk Levels and a 12-bar metric to judge whether the expected response actually occurs.
| Signal | What It Suggests | What It Does Not Guarantee |
| Black 9 Buy | The bearish sequence may be becoming exhausted | ETH will immediately rally |
| S13 Buy | Selling pressure may have reached a deeper stage of exhaustion | The exact market bottom has formed |
| Black 9 + S13 | Multiple exhaustion signals are aligning on the monthly chart | ETH must rise to $3,000 |
This distinction is critical. TD Sequential is better understood as a potential exhaustion and reversal framework than as a traditional price-target indicator. The appearance of Black 9 and S13 makes Ethereum’s current structure interesting, but neither signal alone can tell investors that $3,000 is inevitable.
How Well Has TD Sequential Worked for Ethereum?
Martinez’s bullish argument becomes more compelling when viewed against Ethereum’s recent history. In his August 9 analysis, he highlighted several previous monthly TD Sequential readings that appeared before major directional moves. An A13 sell signal in April 2022 was followed by a decline of roughly 75%. A Black 9 buy signal in September 2022 preceded a rally of about 236%, while an A13 buy signal in April 2025 was followed by an advance of roughly 258%.
| Ethereum Monthly Signal | Subsequent Move Highlighted by Martinez |
| April 2022 A13 Sell | About -75% |
| September 2022 Black 9 Buy | About +236% |
| April 2025 A13 Buy | About +258% |
| July 2026 Black 9 + S13 Buy | Still being tested |
Those numbers explain why the latest dual signal is attracting attention. If an indicator has appeared close to several important macro turning points, traders will naturally examine its next appearance more closely. The September 2022 and April 2025 examples are particularly relevant because both involved buy signals followed by moves large enough to make a future $3,000 ETH price seem less extreme in percentage terms than it initially appears.
Still, three strong historical examples are not statistical proof. The sample is extremely small, market conditions change, and selecting only major signals after the fact can make an indicator look more reliable than it will be in real time. The correct takeaway is therefore not that TD Sequential “predicts Ethereum.” It is that Ethereum’s recent monthly history gives traders a legitimate reason to monitor the current setup closely. The July 2026 signal remains unconfirmed until price action responds.
Why Is $3,000 the Target?
One of the most important points in this story is that TD Sequential itself does not calculate a $3,000 Ethereum target. The indicator identifies possible exhaustion and reversal areas; the $3,000 figure comes from Martinez’s broader interpretation of Ethereum’s market structure. His August 9 post said the current Black 9 and S13 readings could trigger a new rally toward $3,000 if they are validated.
Martinez had also been discussing a possible path toward $3,000 before the latest monthly TD signal appeared. Earlier analysis linked Ethereum’s recovery to on-chain valuation levels and argued that a decisive move above important resistance could reopen the route toward $3,000. One previous technical view identified approximately $2,380 as a level Ethereum would need to overcome consistently before a larger move toward $3,000 became convincing. More recent commentary has also highlighted intermediate tests closer to $1,980 and $2,080.
That makes $3,000 better understood as a bullish scenario target, not Ethereum’s next resistance level. From roughly $1,625, ETH first has to rebuild a constructive price structure. The market would need to recover nearer-term resistance, hold higher lows and demonstrate that former selling zones can become support. Only after those steps occur does the $3,000 discussion move from an analyst’s macro target to a level actively supported by price action.
What ETH Must Do Before $3,000 Becomes Realistic
The first requirement is stabilization. A TD Sequential exhaustion signal can appear while an asset is still volatile, and Ethereum does not need to move vertically higher for the signal to remain meaningful. What bulls want to see first is an end to the pattern of persistent lower lows. If ETH can establish a durable base and begin producing higher lows, the argument that selling momentum has been exhausted becomes much stronger.
The next stage is resistance recovery. Recent analysis around Ethereum has repeatedly focused on the upper-$1,700s to low-$1,800s as an important technical area, while other current outlooks have treated approximately $2,000 as a major psychological and structural test. Martinez has also previously highlighted higher levels around $2,380 as significant for opening a larger path toward $3,000. These levels should not be viewed as exact lines that automatically trigger a rally; they are better treated as zones where the market can demonstrate whether buyers have regained control.
A healthy bullish sequence would therefore look less like $1,625 → $3,000 and more like stabilization → resistance recovery → higher low → higher high → expansion toward larger targets. Just as importantly, a breakout has to hold. If Ethereum moves above resistance for a few hours or days and immediately falls back below it, that is not strong macro confirmation. The TD Sequential signal can draw traders’ attention to a possible bottom; sustained price structure determines whether the bullish thesis survives.
Are Ethereum ETF Flows Supporting the Bullish Case?
The technical setup is appearing alongside an encouraging shift in institutional flows. Farside Investors data show that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded four consecutive sessions of net inflows from August 4 through August 7. The daily totals were $53.1 million, $60.8 million, $92.1 million and $49.6 million respectively, producing a combined $255.6 million in net inflows across the four sessions. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for a large share of those purchases, including $81.1 million of the $92.1 million total on August 6.
That matters because ETF flows provide a different type of information from TD Sequential. The technical indicator is suggesting that the previous selling cycle may be becoming exhausted. ETF inflows, meanwhile, indicate that fresh capital is entering regulated Ethereum investment products. When those two trends happen together, the bullish argument becomes more coherent: selling pressure may be weakening at the same time that a new source of demand is strengthening.
However, four positive trading days do not prove that institutional demand has permanently changed. ETF flows can reverse quickly, especially when cryptocurrency markets respond to macroeconomic data, Bitcoin volatility or changes in broader risk appetite. What would strengthen the $3,000 thesis is not the $255.6 million figure by itself, but continued positive flows while ETH simultaneously improves its price structure. A technical bottom accompanied by sustained capital inflows would be much more persuasive than either signal in isolation.
Bullish or Bearish? Three Paths for ETH
Ethereum is now in an unusual position: the monthly TD setup offers a potentially bullish macro signal, ETF demand has recently improved, but the price still has considerable work to do before $3,000 becomes a confirmed target. That leaves three broad scenarios.
Bull Case — ETH Confirms the Macro Bottom
In the bullish scenario, the dual TD signals prove to be another successful warning that the previous trend has become exhausted. ETH stabilizes, begins forming higher lows, recovers the $1,800 area and eventually establishes itself above the larger $2,000 region. Continued ETF inflows would provide additional evidence that the recovery is supported by real capital rather than short-lived speculative leverage.
If Ethereum can then reclaim higher resistance zones, especially the levels that previously separated recovery rallies from genuine trend changes, $3,000 becomes much easier to justify. The key would not be the TD signal alone, but the alignment of the indicator with higher highs, higher lows and sustained demand.
Base Case — ETH Stays in a Wide Range
A second possibility is that TD Sequential is broadly correct about exhaustion but early on timing. Markets do not always reverse immediately after a 13 is completed. DeMARK’s own methodology includes a 12-bar metric stating that a reversal should generally occur within 12 bars after a completed 13; if the market fails to respond during that period, the reading becomes less effective.
On a monthly chart, that matters enormously. Twelve bars can represent a full year. Ethereum could therefore spend months building a base, repeatedly testing resistance and frustrating traders who interpreted the signal as an immediate call for a vertical rally. A slow accumulation phase would still be compatible with a longer-term bottoming thesis.
Bear Case — The Signal Fails
The bearish scenario is straightforward. Ethereum fails to build higher lows, loses important support and begins printing new cycle lows. At the same time, ETF flows turn persistently negative and the broader crypto market moves back into a risk-off environment.
Under those conditions, the July dual signal would become another example of why exhaustion indicators require confirmation. TD Sequential can tell traders that a trend appears stretched, but a stretched trend can continue. If price refuses to respond, the market — not the indicator — has the final word.
What Could Invalidate the $3,000 ETH Thesis?
The most obvious warning would be continued structural weakness in price. The bullish thesis depends on the idea that Ethereum is moving from seller exhaustion toward accumulation. If ETH repeatedly fails at recovery levels and then breaks to fresh lows, it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that Black 9 and S13 identified a durable macro bottom. The longer the market fails to respond, the less useful the signal becomes under DeMARK’s own framework.
Institutional demand is the second variable to watch. The four-session $255.6 million ETF inflow streak is constructive, but its significance depends on persistence. If those flows quickly reverse into sustained withdrawals, one of the strongest non-technical arguments supporting the current recovery narrative weakens. Conversely, continued ETF accumulation during periods of price consolidation would suggest investors are absorbing supply rather than merely chasing a short-term bounce.
Finally, Ethereum still trades inside the broader crypto and macro liquidity cycle. Bitcoin direction, interest-rate expectations, dollar liquidity and general risk appetite can overpower asset-specific technical patterns. A dual TD buy signal is useful evidence, but the strongest version of the $3,000 thesis requires several factors to align: trend exhaustion, constructive price action, sustained capital inflows and a supportive market environment. A strong signal can start an investment thesis; it cannot complete one.
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Conclusion — Is $3,000 ETH Really Next?
Ethereum’s monthly Black 9 and S13 readings deserve attention because similar TD Sequential signals have appeared near several major ETH turning points. Martinez’s historical examples include a roughly 75% decline after an April 2022 sell signal, a 236% rally following a September 2022 buy signal and a 258% advance after an April 2025 buy signal. The latest setup is also arriving while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have just recorded four consecutive sessions of positive flows totaling $255.6 million.
But $3,000 is not confirmed. TD Sequential identifies potential trend exhaustion; it does not guarantee a bull market or calculate an exact future price. Ethereum still needs to stabilize, recover major resistance and establish a clear pattern of higher lows and higher highs.
For now, the dual signal has created a credible macro bullish setup. Price action still has to prove the rally.
FAQs
Who created the TD Sequential indicator?
TD Sequential was developed by market technician Tom DeMark as part of the broader DeMARK indicator family. The methodology attempts to identify points where established price trends may be approaching exhaustion. Its best-known components are the 9 Setup and 13 Countdown, which are used across multiple asset classes and timeframes.
Is TD Sequential a leading or lagging indicator?
TD Sequential is best viewed as a trend-exhaustion framework rather than fitting perfectly into the traditional leading-versus-lagging classification. It uses existing price data to identify when a trend may have persisted long enough to become vulnerable to reversal. It can therefore warn of a potential turning area before a new trend is fully confirmed, but it still requires price validation afterward.
Is a monthly TD Sequential signal stronger than a daily signal?
A monthly signal reflects a much longer period of market behavior, so it is generally interpreted as more relevant to macro trend analysis than a daily reading. The trade-off is timing. Monthly signals develop slowly and can also take months to play out, making them less useful for traders seeking precise short-term entry points.
How long can an Ethereum monthly TD signal take to work?
There is no guarantee that a reversal begins immediately after a completed signal. DeMARK’s framework uses a 12-bar metric after a completed 13; if the expected response has not occurred within 12 bars, the signal is considered less likely to produce the intended reaction. On a monthly Ethereum chart, that window can theoretically extend for many months.
Can Bitcoin prevent Ethereum from reaching $3,000?
Bitcoin does not mechanically determine Ethereum’s price, but the two assets remain exposed to many of the same liquidity and risk cycles. A major Bitcoin selloff can weaken sentiment across the broader crypto market, while strong BTC conditions can help improve appetite for ETH and other digital assets. Ethereum’s own ETF demand and technical structure matter, but the wider crypto environment remains an important part of any $3,000 scenario.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk. Please do your own research (DYOR).