Bitcoin is trading near a historically rare low valuation zone. Data from on-chain research firm Checkonchain shows that BTC is approaching its 200-week moving average, a level typically seen only in the later stages of a bear market or during deep drawdowns.
The institution believes that such signals often indicate that price-sensitive selling has largely been exhausted, but market bottoms are typically not a single point in time, but rather a prolonged process. After a sharp decline, it is more common to see an extended period of sideways movement, gradually eroding the confidence of remaining holders.
Near the 200-week moving average
Checkonchain places Bitcoin's current valuation in the bottom 10% of its historical range. Historically, this zone has frequently appeared during the weakest phases of market cycles.
This week, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024, before rebounding to around $62,623, up 1.9% on the day, but still posting a weekly loss. Market rebounds were broad but generally weak, failing to recover this week’s losses.
Major cryptocurrencies have limited rebound strength.
Ethereum rose 1.4% to $1,651, BNB increased 1.3% to $595, SOL gained 0.9% to $65, and DOGE rose 1.1% to $0.085. XRP underperformed, trading at $1.12, down 0.3% on the day.
Looking at the past seven days, major tokens remain under pressure overall, with ETH down approximately 6.5% and XRP down approximately 7.5%. CoinDesk noted that recent continued outflows from ETFs are also dampening market recovery efforts.
Inflation and interest rate expectations are pressuring
The macroeconomic environment also failed to provide significant support to the market. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year in May, marking the fastest annual growth since early 2023. The report linked rising energy costs to the conflict in Iran.
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% month-over-month, below economists’ expectations but insufficient to alter the overall overheated inflation environment. Yves Renno, Head of Trading at Wirex, told CoinDesk that expectations for clearer U.S. crypto regulation weakened again this week, with the probability of the Clarity Act passing by 2026 on Polymarket dropping from 62% to 48%.
The market will now focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on June 16–17. Meanwhile, global stock markets have declined, oil prices have risen, and expectations of an ECB rate hike continue to increase external pressures on risk assets.