On 1 October 2025 I presented the double threat, why DATs and Quantum were the biggest threats to Bitcoin. Bitcoin was at $118K and 5 days from the cycle ATH and MSTR was at $340. Today Bitcoin is down -50% and MSTR -73% primarily on the back of these two threats alone. Unfortunately neither have been adequately addressed.

If you’re in a good token with a good team and community with solid holders that are delusional, then you don’t have to worry about what Bitcoin or Michael Saylor does.

Being discussed in almost every group so lets settle it: Would you be happier buying BTC if Saylor was liquidated?

STRATEGY'S BIGGEST PROBLEM MAY NO LONGER BE BITCOIN.... IT MAY BE THE MATH. $MSTR just hit $103, its lowest level in 23 months. The stock is now down 81% from its all-time high, wiping out roughly $153 billion in market value. Strategy holds 847,363 $BTC worth around $53 billion, and they are at a unrealized loss of $11 billion. But the market may be pricing in something else. Strategy's model only works if investors keep funding new Bitcoin purchases. Meanwhile: • $STRC is trading below its $100 par value. • Annual dividend obligations have surged toward $1.7 billion. • Cash reserves are only around $1.4 billion. • Unrealized BTC losses are equal to nearly 29% of the company's market cap. The risk isn't that Bitcoin goes to zero. The risk is that raising fresh capital becomes increasingly expensive. The real question is whether capital markets will keep funding Strategy's Bitcoin bet. 🤔

Is Bitcoin crashing because of Microstrategy ? No. but the fear behind the question is worth understanding.. the story goes like this Strategy raised billions through a preferred stock called STRC, paying about 11.5% a year, and used the cash to buy bitcoin the catch, STRC can't be re issued below $100, and it's now sitting around $84 so that fundraising tap is off. no fresh cash means no new bitcoin buying, and the market is scared the $1.3 billion a year they owe in dividends forces them to start selling bitcoin instead. and they did sell a small amount already, the first time since 2022. that's what lit the fuse. but trimming a little to cover dividends is a long way from bitcoin crashing because of strategy. they hold over 800,000 bitcoin, around $50 billion, against that $1.3 billion of yearly payouts and roughly $8 billion of debt that carries no margin call and nothing due until 2028. they can cover those dividends for years, even by selling bitcoin slowly, without ever being forced into a fire sale. so the honest answer.. strategy is more symptom than cause. their pullback removes a buyer, sure, but bitcoin's drop is what put them in this spot, not the reverse. if you want the thing actually moving bitcoin right now, watch the macro, not michael saylor.

Strategy fell below $100 for the first time since march 2024.. let me explain what that actually means, why it's happening, and where it likely goes. what it means is simple. $MSTR is now worth less than the bitcoin it's holding. the entire point of the company was that it traded above its coins, at a premium, so people paid extra for the exposure. that premium just flipped to a discount. the stock is down about 70% on the year, and the market is valuing strategy below the value of what's literally on its balance sheet. why it's happening comes down to one number, MNAV, the stock's value versus its bitcoin. Saylor's own threshold is 1.2x. above it, issuing new shares to buy bitcoin adds bitcoin per share, and that accretion is the whole engine. below it, raising money just dilutes holders. MSTR has dropped under 1x, so the engine is off. and STRC, the preferred they used as a backup way to raise cash, has fallen to around $85, under its $100 floor, so that lever is stuck too. now the pressure. the preferred dividends are fixed, roughly $1.3 billion a year, and they don't pause when the stock drops. with both ways of raising money jammed, strategy did the thing saylor always said they wouldn't, they sold a little bitcoin to pay the dividend, the first sale since 2022. that's what's really spooking people, because a company built to only ever buy bitcoin just turned into a seller, even a small one. but i don't think this is the collapse the loudest voices want it to be. strategy holds over 800,000 bitcoin, around $53 billion. the debt is only about $8 billion, unsecured, near 0% interest, nothing due until 2028, and there's no margin call. no one can force them to dump coins on a price drop. worst case, they sell bitcoin slowly and cover the dividend for years. this is a slow-bleed risk, not a sudden blow-up. so what next. it all hangs on bitcoin. their average cost is about $75,500, and while bitcoin trades below that they stay underwater and the pressure holds. if bitcoin pushes back above it, the premium can return, the engine restarts, and this whole scare gets forgotten fast. imo.. they survive, but the special era is paused. at a discount to nav, mstr is just a leveraged, dividend-heavy way to own bitcoin, and the smarter move becomes buying the coin directly instead of paying for the wrapper. the scenario that actually worries me is a flat, boring bitcoin for a year. a crash they can survive. a long grind sideways is the thing that slowly breaks a model like this. [ Made this video with one prompt using @HeyGen ]

Tradies crushing revenue but watching the company account get raided later. Nick Gregory nails the most common failure pattern. That cash balance is not fully yours. It belongs to deferred ATO obligations, unpaid super, and tax bills that surface twelve to twenty four months later. Spend the pool before you map the real claims and the hole compounds for years. The real discipline is understanding the timing mismatch between cash inflow and actual ownership. Structure and advisors locked in early turn what looks like success into lasting security.

what are the chances STRC kills bitcoin lol