Strategy fell below $100 for the first time since march 2024.. let me explain what that actually means, why it's happening, and where it likely goes. what it means is simple. $MSTR is now worth less than the bitcoin it's holding. the entire point of the company was that it traded above its coins, at a premium, so people paid extra for the exposure. that premium just flipped to a discount. the stock is down about 70% on the year, and the market is valuing strategy below the value of what's literally on its balance sheet. why it's happening comes down to one number, MNAV, the stock's value versus its bitcoin. Saylor's own threshold is 1.2x. above it, issuing new shares to buy bitcoin adds bitcoin per share, and that accretion is the whole engine. below it, raising money just dilutes holders. MSTR has dropped under 1x, so the engine is off. and STRC, the preferred they used as a backup way to raise cash, has fallen to around $85, under its $100 floor, so that lever is stuck too. now the pressure. the preferred dividends are fixed, roughly $1.3 billion a year, and they don't pause when the stock drops. with both ways of raising money jammed, strategy did the thing saylor always said they wouldn't, they sold a little bitcoin to pay the dividend, the first sale since 2022. that's what's really spooking people, because a company built to only ever buy bitcoin just turned into a seller, even a small one. but i don't think this is the collapse the loudest voices want it to be. strategy holds over 800,000 bitcoin, around $53 billion. the debt is only about $8 billion, unsecured, near 0% interest, nothing due until 2028, and there's no margin call. no one can force them to dump coins on a price drop. worst case, they sell bitcoin slowly and cover the dividend for years. this is a slow-bleed risk, not a sudden blow-up. so what next. it all hangs on bitcoin. their average cost is about $75,500, and while bitcoin trades below that they stay underwater and the pressure holds. if bitcoin pushes back above it, the premium can return, the engine restarts, and this whole scare gets forgotten fast. imo.. they survive, but the special era is paused. at a discount to nav, mstr is just a leveraged, dividend-heavy way to own bitcoin, and the smarter move becomes buying the coin directly instead of paying for the wrapper. the scenario that actually worries me is a flat, boring bitcoin for a year. a crash they can survive. a long grind sideways is the thing that slowly breaks a model like this. [ Made this video with one prompt using @HeyGen ]