I was wrong. When investing timing is just as important as thesis. The fact we had the biggest heist of all time ($6B hack) and Bitcoin is holding at $77K three days later is nothing short of remarkable. The market is telling us it doesn’t care and the market shouldn’t be ignored during such major events. In fact the price reaction here can only be interpreted as bullish so far. Therefore, I am wrong on either timing or thesis. I expect the risks from AI and QC will only continue to grow, and I will keep a close ear to the ground. My hope is Bitcoin Core will take action soon to alleviate the LT threat. Bitcoin, I am back.

I own no Bitcoin.

No guarantees (there never are) but when Bitcoin's Put / Call ratio gets this extreme, the downside locally has been relatively capped. https://t.co/sFvkWPlRqR

Great summary of the threat to encryption that AI poses in the next 2 years. I've thought along similar lines for some time, but this if far better said than I could have. It's becoming increasingly pertinant now that we are seeing decades of mathematics progress in the last weeks alone. This is one of the reasons I: 1. Don't touch DeFi anymore 2. Minimize the attack frontier. Less tech, less accounts/wallets, less complexity. Consolidate how/where you store assets with the best counterparties. Simplify, simplify, simplify.* 3. Have some real world assets. Maybe we will see a return to paper contracts? I'd love to see that for real-estate. But regardless, if AI compromises mainstream encryption in any way, there will be chaos. Best we can hope for in this worst case scenario is one of the big lab doing it first internally with a frontier model, cracking it and then coordinating with government to fast track "a patch". But hopefully instead it turns out that humanity has indeed built something far more robust which will protect the digital world for many years. It's just hard to see the level of security compromises in multi-decade robust systems that AI has made this year + the decades of math advances in the last week alone and think elliptic curve and various other crypto SSSs (security shit sandwiches) will be impregnable from an AI god in the next 2 years. *w.r.t crypto, in some ways this is the opposite of best practice in prior years. The standard is changing.

The market is pushing fresh highs but everyone is bearishly positioned. I wonder how this ends. https://t.co/NCUydScZG7

Memory prices ATH. Chip Exports ATH. Korea up 25% in last 3m alone. I expect Micron earnings will see a major reprice up tomorrow. As well as AI supply chain in general soon. All demand pointing up and at growth rates higher than anyone expected. This needs a major blow to reverse course (eg Hyperscaler AI CAPEX cuts) which are currently not on the horizon. Why is Burry still short?

Is AI on the verge of a monster short squeeze? Burry is short some of the biggest AI names. While being long stuffed toys, cork shoes and microplastic cloths (literally). But he just stated he will cover his shorts if we approach the highs. AI is still down 20% from the highs. Stocks like Micron (MU) are trading on a 6 PE with next years demand booked and chip exports (demand) up 30% to new highs in the month of September alone. Burry is 10%+ underwater on MU and many of his positions. He has 300,000 subs paying $millions a year to copy trade these bearish AI plays and long dying retail. The market isn’t ready for the face ripper of AI expanding demand and the capitulation of the 300.

Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over. Bitcoin has broken out of the deep discount zone. Comparable to 2020 and 2023. Price went up triple digits from here each time. This is a good thing as it's a clear momentum and valuation shift. The discount isn't as deep, but better things happen faster. That said, both prior times we did chop around here for another 6-8 weeks before moving up. If it's like 2017? Straight up from here.

We are now entering the seasonally most bullish part of the year. Q4 is always the best. But especially so in midterm years like 2026. https://t.co/DYA91AcHb4

We have some very bullish opportunities emerging today in crypto + equities. Stuff that only happens once every 3-4 years. Enjoy it. It won't last forever. But damn it feels good.