1. Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant fluctuations, driven primarily by macroeconomic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data propelled Bitcoin to a record high of $124.4K, but subsequent economic data falling short of expectations triggered a correction. BTC ended the week down 1.58% (from $116.7K to $124.4K), a steeper decline than that of the US stock market, reflecting its high sensitivity to the macro environment. The chip structure indicates that the selling pressure mainly came from the reduction of 78,000 FOMO sentiment positions in the $119K-$124K range, while $11.1 million in buy orders emerged in the $117K-$118K range, providing support. If the key level of $112K can be held, the selling pressure is expected to ease. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased, with recent retractions after three record highs being less than 10%. The current support level of $112K aligns with historical retracement patterns. Overall, despite short-term sentiment disturbances, institutional holdings and capital inflows have provided a solid foundation for the market.
2. Inflation data is volatile, no substantial progress was made during the Trump-Putin summit
2.1 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates that the impact of inflation is within expectations, but production costs and soft inflation data have unexpectedly risen.
8.13 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 2.7% year-on-year in July, slightly lower than expected; the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year in July, higher than expected.
8.13 - Trump: Powell should cut interest rates immediately! Consider filing a major lawsuit against him.
8.13 - US Treasury Secretary: There are fundamental problems with the Federal Reserve, and I hope to find someone who can reorganize the Fed; the Fed should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
8.13 - The total amount of U.S. treasury bonds exceeded $37 trillion for the first time.
8.15 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warns that the Bank of Japan is lagging behind the situation and is expected to raise interest rates to control inflation.
8.15 - In July, the annual rate of Producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States was 3.3%, with an expected value of 2.5% and a previous value of 2.4%. The monthly rate of PPI in July was 0.9%, with an expected value of 0.2%.
8.18 - US retail sales for July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, in line with expectations.
8.18 - The preliminary estimate of the one-year inflation rate in the United States for August was 4.9%, higher than both expectations and the previous value.
8.18 - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August in the United States was 58.6, lower than the previous value and expectations.
CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary
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MEETING DATE
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300-325
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325-350
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350-375
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375-400
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400-425
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425-450
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2025/9/17
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0.00%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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83.55%
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16.45%
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2025/10/29
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0.00%
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0.00%
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0.00%
|
37.00%
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63.00%
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0.00%
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2025/12/10
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0.00%
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0.00%
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13.04%
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86.96%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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2.2 Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, and chips, made tentative contacts with Russia regarding US-Russian relations, and partially relaxed sanctions.
8.12 -- China and the United States once again suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days.
8.15 - The United States announced the expansion of the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs to include derivatives, effective from August 18
8.15 - Trump and Putin successfully met in the United States, but no substantive agreement was reached
8.15 - The United States will temporarily waive some sanctions against Russia.
8.16 - The United States announces the termination of the de minimis exemption threshold for all imported goods starting from August 29
8.18 - Trump: Next week, I will impose tariffs on steel and chips.
3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance
3.1 Macro data repeatedly influences market sentiment, US stocks rose overall
This week, the trend of US stocks was dominated by macroeconomic data. Market sentiment was cautious before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. The data on Tuesday boosted optimism, but the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and consumer confidence on Friday fell short of expectations, once again suppressing risk appetite. Ultimately, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose 0.94% and 0.81% respectively, while the Russell 2000 rose 3.07%, significantly outperforming the broader market. The Volatility Index (VIX) rebounded slightly to around 15, indicating that the market as a whole remained rational and showed no obvious panic.
Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends
3.2 Macro data drives market fluctuations,Bitcoin hit a high and then fell back
The trend of the cryptocurrency market this week was highly dependent on macroeconomic data. After the release of CPI, Bitcoin once pushed to a record high, but the market failed to continue. In the latter half of the week, under the pressure of economic data falling short of expectations, Bitcoin corrected along with the US stock market, highlighting its high sensitivity to the macro environment. Throughout the week, BTC fell by 1.58%, with its trading range maintained at $116.7k–$124.4k. The correction was even greater than the decline in the US stock market, indicating that after Bitcoin reached a new high, the accelerated distribution of chips increased market volatility.
Figure 2: BTC Price Trends
3.3 Trading sentiment is heating up, Risk appetite diffusion
As of August 17th, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrency assets rebounded to $4,031.4 billion, marking a 1.64% weekly increase and the first time the cryptocurrency market capitalization has surpassed the $4 trillion mark. The total market trading volume for the week was only $1,393.44 billion, representing a 32.03% month-on-month increase, indicating a significant surge in investor trading enthusiasm. In terms of structure, Bitcoin trading volume reached $524.40 billion, marking a 27.95% month-on-month increase, with its market share dropping to 37.80%. Altcoin trading volume increased by 34.62% month-on-month, reaching the highest weekly trading volume this year, indicating a gradual diffusion of market risk appetite.
Figure 3：Trading Volume of BTC and Altcoins
4. Crypto Trend Analysis
4.1 Short-term sentiment selling pressure prevails, Bitcoin support level is temporarily stable
After Bitcoin hit a new high this week, the chip structure shows that market pressure mainly comes from short-term profit-taking and some whales' distribution. Specifically:
The reduction of 27,584 chips at a cost of $19K is the largest reduction under $100,000, but it is an individual action lacking scale;
The reduction of 30,000 coins in the 103K–110K range has significantly reduced profit-taking, which does not constitute the main selling pressure;
The main force of reduction is concentrated in the 119K–124K range, with a cumulative reduction of about 78,000 tokens. Most of these tokens are panic-buying chips driven by FOMO, exhibiting emotional characteristics.
Meanwhile, 111,000 additional chips were added in the $117K–$118K range, which serves as the default first support level, with a large concentration of buy orders.
Overall, the current selling pressure is primarily driven by short-term sentiment. If the price can stabilize above $112K, the market selling pressure is expected to gradually ease.
Figure 4: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution
4.2 Bitcoin volatility converges, a 10% correction is within the normal range
Bitcoin has experienced significant cyclical corrections ranging from 75% to 90% in its history. However, as regulatory policies gradually improve and Bitcoin is gradually incorporated into the traditional financial system, its volatility has significantly decreased, and the maximum correction in the recent period has narrowed to about 30%. Since April, Bitcoin has reached three new highs, and the maximum retractions after the previous two new highs were only 9.23% and 9.71%, respectively, indicating that corrections within 10% are now the norm. Assuming a 10% correction, the current reasonable support level is around $112,000, which closely matches the low point level in early August.
Figure 5: BTC Price Drawdown from ATH
4.3 Market Summary and Outlook:Macro data led Bitcoin to surge and then fall back, Institutional investors' increasing holdings support market confidence
This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant fluctuations, driven primarily by macroeconomic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data propelled Bitcoin to a record high of $124.4K, but subsequent economic data falling short of expectations triggered a correction. BTC ended the week down 1.58% (from $116.7K to $124.4K), a steeper decline than that of the US stock market, reflecting its high sensitivity to the macro environment. The chip structure indicates that the selling pressure mainly came from the reduction of 78,000 FOMO sentiment positions in the $119K-$124K range, while $117K-$118K saw an influx of 111,000 buy orders providing support. If the key level of $112K can be held, the selling pressure is expected to ease. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased, with recent retractions after three record highs being less than 10%. The current support level of $112K aligns with historical retracement patterns. Overall, despite short-term sentiment-driven disturbances, institutional holdings and capital inflows have provided a solid foundation for the market.
Figure 6: BTC Chip Supply Situation
4.4 Listed companies maintain stable purchasing power, and ETF funds have not panicked and fled
According to the published entity data, this week, physical institutions have cumulatively increased their holdings by 36,549 BTC, of which listed companies contributed 28,274, accounting for a whopping 77.36%, becoming the core driving force behind the buying. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin spot ETF achieved a net inflow of $547 million for the entire week, with only a slight net outflow of $14 million recorded on Friday, reflecting an overall stable sentiment among investors and no signs of panic withdrawal yet.
Figure 7: BTC Buyer Analysis
5. Regulatory Trends
America
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PAXOS applies for a U.S. trust bank license
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reached a settlement with Ripple
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Google Play requires government licensing for crypto wallet apps (excluding non-custodial wallets)
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The Federal Reserve discontinues the "New Activities Oversight Program" (previously responsible for cryptocurrency regulation)
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Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Promotes Becoming a Global Cryptocurrency Hub
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The Ministry of Finance is considering embedding digital identity verification into DeFi protocols
Asia
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Singapore Exchange may list sustainable futures contracts for cryptocurrencies by the end of the year
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Fuzhe Jinke applies for a Hong Kong VASP license
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Zhuorui Securities has obtained approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to conduct virtual asset deposit and withdrawal services
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Thailand allows foreign tourists to exchange cryptocurrencies for Thai baht for electronic payments
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India establishes its own Bitcoin Policy Research Institute
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Upbit operator partners with Vietnam's MB Bank to launch local cryptocurrency exchange
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The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission approves virtual asset deposit and withdrawal services
Other
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Kazakhstan's Fonte Capital Launches Central Asia's First Spot Bitcoin ETF
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Brazil's sixth-largest city has passed a bill, positioning itself to become the "Bitcoin Capital" of the country
6. Industry Trends
The stablecoin ecosystem is expanding rapidly
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Circle will launch a Layer 1 blockchain ARC dedicated to stablecoins, with USDC as the native gas
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MetaMask may announce details of its own USD stablecoin, mUSD, this week, with an expected launch by the end of this month
The crypto ETF market is active, and institutional deployment is accelerating
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Kazakhstan's Fonte Capital Launches Central Asia's First Spot Bitcoin ETF
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The total size of Ethereum ETFs has surpassed $30 billion, while the monthly trading volume of futures on CME Group reached a record high of $118 billion
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The investment management arm of the Norwegian Central Bank has a Bitcoin exposure of 7,161 coins
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SEC extends Solana ETF approval deadline to October 16
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Citigroup is considering providing custody and payment services for crypto ETFs
Listed companies and institutions continue to bet on cryptocurrency assets
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Google acquires an 8% stake in Bitcoin mining company TeraWulf for $3.7 billion
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Futu Securities Launches Solana (SOL) Retail Trading Service
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Wells Fargo acquires $130 million worth of Bitcoin
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BitMine plans to raise $20 billion to increase its holdings of Ethereum, with a current position of 1.297 million ETH
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Peter Thiel increases his holdings in Ethereum Treasury Strategy (7.5% ETHZilla)
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180 Life Sciences completes $156 million private placement to purchase ETH
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Fundamental Global allocated $200 million in private funds for purchasing ETH
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ALT5 Sigma secures $1.5 billion in funding to launch WLFI Treasury Strategy
Blockchain technology upgrade and ecosystem evolution
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Stripe collaborates with Paradigm to develop L1 blockchain Tempo
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The Ethereum Fusaka hard fork will be implemented in November 2025
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Ronin has announced its intention to transition from an Ethereum sidechain to an Ethereum L2
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Emirates, Travala, and Air Arabia support booking flights with BTC/ETH/USDT
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Thailand allows foreign tourists to exchange cryptocurrencies for Thai baht electronic payme
Other
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BTC's market capitalization has risen to the fifth place globally (surpassing Google)
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Ethereum Google search volume hits a record high
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"Altcoin" search volume on Google hits five-year peak
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Michael Saylor hints at disclosing data on Bitcoin holdings next week
7. Next week's outlook
AUG 2025 Crypto Calendar
August 18: Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US President Trump in Washington; Thailand will launch a cryptocurrency exchange program for foreign tourists; Coinbase Derivatives will launch mini perpetual futures for SOL and XRP on its US platform; MELANIA's unlocked circulation accounts for 5.60%, worth approximately $5.7 million
August 19th: Deribit will launch Bitcoin and Ethereum linear options settled in USDC
August 20: Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium; Brazil plans to hold a hearing on Bitcoin strategic reserves on August 20; ZRO unlocks 8.53% of the circulation, worth about $56.6 million; KAITO unlocks 10.87% of the circulation, worth about $26.2 million; ZK unlocks 8.53% of the circulation, worth about $56.6 million
August 21st: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; in 2027, FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech on the economic outlook
August 22nd: Powell will deliver a speech in Jackson Hole on August 22nd
8. Reference
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defillama.com
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coinmarketcap.com
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tradingview.com
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cryptoslam.io
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token.unlocks.app/
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dune.com
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itez.com/events
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cryptorank.io/
