Reading the Bitcoin Market in June—The “Crossroads” Revealed by CryptoQuant On-Chain Data (Analysis Report #305) ◆ Analysis Summary • BTC continues to be withdrawn from exchanges, potentially leading to a supply shortage in the medium to long term. • Meanwhile, buying demand from U.S. institutional investors remains weak, leaving insufficient catalysts for a sustained rally. • June may prove to be a critical month in determining whether the market transitions from consolidation to an upward trend—or faces another correction. ◆ Main Body When analyzing the Bitcoin market in June, it’s essential to look not only at price but also at what is happening within the market itself. On-chain data reveals that the current market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish signals. First, pay attention to “Exchange BTC Reserves.” This metric indicates the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges. When investors withdraw BTC from exchanges to their personal wallets, the supply of immediately sellable BTC decreases—generally interpreted as a bullish signal. Currently, exchange BTC reserves have been on a consistent downward trend, suggesting many investors are opting for long-term holding. A reduced circulating supply of BTC could provide stronger support for future price increases. Next, focus on the SSR (Stablecoin Supply Ratio). Though the name sounds complex, SSR simply measures the amount of stablecoin capital sitting idle in the market. Stablecoins are often held as standby funds for purchasing cryptocurrencies. A lower SSR implies more purchasing power remains available. Currently, SSR remains at a relatively low level, suggesting significant untapped buying potential still exists in the market. However, there are also warning signs to monitor. The most notable is the Coinbase Premium. Coinbase Premium measures the price difference between Coinbase (a U.S.-based exchange) and overseas exchanges. Since Coinbase hosts many institutional investors, a positive Premium typically indicates active buying by U.S. institutions, while a negative Premium suggests selling pressure from them. Despite recent price rebounds, the Coinbase Premium has shown only marginal improvement—indicating that strong institutional buying has yet to materialize. Another critical metric is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). Simply put, SOPR shows whether investors are realizing profits or cutting losses. A SOPR above 1 suggests profit-taking; below 1 indicates loss-cutting. Currently, both Long-Term Holder (LTH) and Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR values are hovering near 1, meaning market participants are not aggressively taking profits. However, a slight recent downward trend may signal growing investor caution. In the derivatives market, Open Interest (OI) is also crucial. OI reflects how much capital is deployed in the futures market. Rising OI indicates growing market participation—but excessive growth can lead to excessive leverage and heightened liquidation risks during sharp downturns. Currently, OI—which surged sharply in May—is beginning to decline, suggesting the market is transitioning from overheating toward normalization. Another key indicator is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). MVRV measures how profitable the overall market is relative to the cost basis of all coins. Historically, when MVRV becomes too high, it often precedes increased profit-taking and market tops. While current MVRV is not in overheated territory, it has been steadily rising—indicating that unrealized gains among market participants are gradually increasing. This implies both upside potential and future selling pressure. In summary, the Bitcoin market in June finds itself in a state of “bullish supply dynamics but insufficient demand.” Declining exchange reserves and low SSR are tailwinds for the medium to long term. However, Coinbase Premium and SOPR suggest that new capital has not yet flowed in decisively. Therefore, the four most critical indicators to watch in June are: • ETF inflows • Coinbase Premium • SOPR • Exchange Reserves If institutional buying returns and ETF inflows accelerate again, Bitcoin could be poised to enter its next upward trend. Conversely, if demand recovery fails to materialize, the current rebound may merely be a temporary rally. June may well become a pivotal crossroads determining the direction of the market toward late 2026. ◆ Short Video (Key Focus): The Answer to June’s BTC Market Is in the On-Chain Data [Ewin Bitcoin Research] https://t.co/Bv5LZrg4gz