After the U.S. May inflation data was released, the market did not show a clear directional shift. Overall CPI matched expectations, while core CPI came in slightly below estimates, allowing Bitcoin to remain near $61,000 after the announcement, with short-term selling pressure easing.
Core CPI came in below expectations
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, up from 3.8% in April, and increased 0.5% month-over-month, slightly slower than the previous month’s 0.6%. Overall, monthly growth showed slight cooling, but the annual rate continues to rise.
The core CPI, which is closely watched by the market, rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%. Year-over-year, it stood at 2.9%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than April’s 2.8%. This outcome somewhat eased risk-on sentiment pressures following the data release.
Bitcoin holds at $61,000
After the data release, Bitcoin traded at approximately $61,400, with little change over the past 24 hours. Markets had feared that persistent inflation would continue to pressure risk assets, but the slightly weaker-than-expected core data helped Bitcoin avoid a deeper decline.
Bitcoin not breaking below $61,000 indicates continued short-term support. However, this data has not triggered a significant price rebound, suggesting that capital remains cautious, awaiting further inflation and interest rate signals rather than prematurely betting on a dovish shift.
Interest rate expectations remain largely unchanged.
Cross-asset market reactions have been more cautious. U.S. stock index futures declined after the data release, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.5%, reflecting ongoing market adjustment to the expectation of higher interest rates lasting longer. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil fell 1% to $88.
The next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is scheduled for June 17. According to CME FedWatch, the market had already heavily priced in a hold on rates, with a probability of approximately 98%. This expectation has remained largely unchanged since the release of the May CPI data.
The article notes that the market remains cautious in pricing in conditions by the end of 2026 and has not fully accounted for a clear path of rate cuts. For Bitcoin, slowing core inflation provides short-term support, but overall inflation remains high, and the macroeconomic environment is still tight.