Foreign media reports that Geoffrey Kendrick, Senior Market Analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, believes the low point of this Bitcoin cycle has already been reached, with around $59,000 likely forming the bottom range of this downturn. As previous factors that heavily pressured the market have weakened, crypto assets may have concluded their prior phase of significant decline.
According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin dropped to $59,375 on June 5 before rebounding to around $64,000. Kendrick believes this level corresponds to the "low of certainty" in this cycle, representing a roughly 53% decline from the peak of $126,000 reached on October 6, 2025.
ETF selling pressure is viewed as a temporary factor.
Kendrick stated that since the second week of May, the cumulative net redemptions from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $5.72 billion, representing one of the most concentrated outflows since the products' launch. He believes this selling pressure does not stem entirely from a repricing of Bitcoin’s prospects but is also linked to short-term capital shifting toward other high-demand assets.
According to him, some ETF holders recently sold their Bitcoin positions to raise cash for participating in SpaceX’s initial public offering. As SpaceX’s listing gets underway, this type of selling pressure driven by funding needs may be nearing its end.
SpaceX's IPO and falling oil prices are key points of observation.
This review also lists SpaceX’s IPO and shifts in the Middle East situation as two key catalysts. Kendrick believes that if expectations for a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran continue to rise, oil prices may be suppressed, and macro risk sentiment could improve accordingly.
The report noted that after U.S. President Trump mentioned the possibility of reaching a peace agreement with Iran, Brent crude oil prices fell to approximately $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil was around $85 per barrel. If energy prices continue to decline, market appetite for risk assets may strengthen, benefiting Bitcoin.
Monitor three subsequent signals
- Should I continue buying Bitcoin this week?
- Can U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs return to net inflows in a single day?
- Will international oil prices continue to decline?
He believes that if corporate treasury buying resumes, ETF fund flows turn positive again, and oil prices stop rising, the阶段性 bottom for Bitcoin will be more easily confirmed. Kendrick also maintains his view that Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin this year.
Additional information: The article also notes that Kendrick’s current year-end price targets are $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum. This assessment is based on his personal market outlook, with key factors still being capital flows, corporate buying, and changes in the macroeconomic environment.