Foreign media believe that SpaceX’s listing on Nasdaq today could have a two-sided impact on Bitcoin and broader risk assets. Markets are watching whether funds previously withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs will flow back, while also remaining cautious, as large IPOs often occur during periods of heightened market sentiment.
Are ETF funds flowing back?
The article notes that recent net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $5 billion, causing Bitcoin’s price to briefly drop below $60,000. Some market participants suggest that part of the capital withdrawal is related to investors reallocating cash to participate in SpaceX’s large-scale IPO.
If this assessment holds, some funds may return to the crypto market following the listing, providing support for Bitcoin’s valuation. After briefly dipping below $60,000 last week, Bitcoin rebounded to around $63,000.
- Recent Bitcoin ETF outflows: Over $5 billion
- Bitcoin reference price in the article: approximately $63,736
- SpaceX IPO fundraising amount: approximately $75 billion
Risk appetite may also weaken.
The article also notes that if SpaceX's first-day trading performs strongly, it could be seen as a sign that market risk appetite remains intact, potentially driving both stocks and crypto assets higher together. Such联动 is common during periods when risk assets generally strengthen.
However, another, more cautious perspective holds that record-breaking IPOs often occur when market optimism is at its peak, not necessarily signaling the start of a new rally, but rather potentially nearing a short-term high.
Comparison of Large IPOs with Market Peaks
The article lists major IPOs such as Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, SoftBank, NTT Mobile Communication Network, and Visa, noting that most occurred near significant highs or local peaks of the S&P 500 index.
Following this logic, if a similar situation arises again, U.S. equities may face renewed selling pressure, and negative sentiment could spill over to risk assets like Bitcoin. The article thus warns that if markets weaken, Bitcoin could once again drop below $60,000.
Additional context: CoinDesk previously noted that SpaceX’s cryptocurrency trading contract price once implied a valuation of approximately $2.4 trillion, higher than the $1.77 trillion valuation implied by its IPO pricing. This indicates that expectations surrounding this listing were already very high.