BlockBeats report: On June 11, the 2026 FIFA World Cup will officially kick off at midnight tomorrow. Undoubtedly, the quadrennial World Cup is a major event for football fans worldwide; however, investors are also concerned that the tournament may divert market attention and negatively impact financial markets. BlockBeats has compiled historical data and summarized the performance of the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin during past World Cups as follows:
U.S. stocks: Over the past nearly 40 years of the World Cup, the S&P 500 has risen five times and fallen five times, with an average return of approximately -0.18% and a median return of about +0.30%. Overall, there is no clear "World Cup curse," but volatility has notably narrowed. In 1998, during a strong U.S. market cycle, the index posted the largest gain during the tournament; in 2002, amid the bursting of the dot-com bubble and a crisis of confidence in earnings reports, it experienced the largest decline; in 2022, it was affected by Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and recession expectations.
Bitcoin: Historically, its performance during World Cup tournaments has been weak, particularly during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cups, when prices generally declined or entered periods of consolidation and weakening—showing a clear "World Cup curse" effect. All three years—2014, 2018, and 2022—were bear markets for Bitcoin, and when combined with the World Cup, Bitcoin’s performance was notably weak; in 2018, Bitcoin experienced a maximum drawdown of approximately 15%.