Bitcoin (BTC) price has likely not reached its cycle bottom, according to a June 12, 2026, report from Galaxy Digital Inc. (NASDAQ: GLXY).
According to Galaxy, Bitcoin price is now falling in line with its previous bear market cycles. The firm’s data indicate the decline has further to run before it reaches a true bottom, with the base case pointing to a low between $40,000 and $46,000 sometime before the fourth quarter of 2026.
“Despite the declining impact of successive halvings, and many prognostications of a ‘supercycle,’ the empirical data yet again show evidence that the 4-year cycle is intact,” Galaxy Digital stated.
The firm noted that Bitcoin’s price is down 51% from its all-time high, eight months on from the October 2025 peak. As a result, the flagship coin has finally dropped below the 2013 – 2015 cycle’s 48% decline at the same stage, thereby ending its run as the mildest drawdown on record.
Galaxy forecasts further Bitcoin price selloff
However, the current decline remains far shallower than the two most recent bear markets. Given that prior cycles bottomed between 77% and 85% below their peaks, Galaxy argued that the current drawdown has yet to reach the depth that has historically marked a true bottom.
Beyond its base case, the firm outlined a harsher scenario in which a deeper washout could drag the price down to between $30,000 and $37,000. Additionally, the firm flagged a milder outcome in which steady buying would hold the floor near $51,000 to $54,000.
The firm’s Bitcoin price prediction could be invalidated over the coming months, potentially catalyzed by a fresh wave of institutional buying. Moreover, BTC price has been following the cash flows of United States spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as Finbold explained.