Foreign media: CryptoQuant believes that Bitcoin is approaching the realized price range commonly seen at bear market bottoms, but demand is weakening simultaneously; ongoing outflows from spot ETFs indicate that buying pressure has not yet returned.
Achieve a price close to the support level
CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin's realized price is approximately $53,600, below the current trading price of around $61,680. The firm notes that historically, Bitcoin has often found its bottom near the realized price during major bear market cycles, and the November 2022 FTX-related low briefly dipped below this level.
Contracting demand remains the main trend.
However, CryptoQuant does not believe this implies an imminent price reversal. The firm states that both on-chain and derivatives data show that speculative demand and apparent spot demand continue to contract rapidly. It also notes that, when combined with data on liquidations and changes in spot demand, the latest week recorded the most severe weekly decline in demand since January 2022.
ETF outflows are weighing on buying demand.
CryptoQuant views the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs as a clear signal of declining demand. Data from Farside Investors shows that since May 14, there has been only one day with net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, with cumulative net outflows exceeding $4.8 billion. Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, has characterized this shift as a "capital rotation," rather than a deterioration in Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
Bottom confirmation still requires time
CryptoQuant believes the market has not yet entered a true capitulation phase. The firm states that for a more sustained rebound to form, realized losses need to expand further to absorb current supply pressure. Bitcoin has declined 6.6% over the past week, falling approximately 51% from its all-time high of $126,080.