Bitunix Analyst: AI Capital Surge and Geopolitical Risks Face Validation Amid Higher-for-Longer Rates

Huo Xing Finance reports: On June 9, the economy showed no signs of recession, inflation showed no signs of cooling, yet demand for capital continued to expand. Since April, Iran and Israel have engaged in direct military conflict for the first time, and the Houthi movement announced a complete ban on Israeli vessels passing through the Red Sea, indicating that geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain unresolved. Although Trump has intervened to pressure both sides to de-escalate militarily, and negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have signaled hope for an agreement by the end of June, the U.S. military’s interception of oil tankers bound for Iran and Israel’s continued hardline stance against Hezbollah suggest that energy supply risks and geopolitical risk premiums will persist in the short term. Meanwhile, market focus has rapidly shifted to monetary policy. Following strong non-farm payroll data, multiple Wall Street institutions have revised their previous expectations for rate cuts. From Goldman Sachs eliminating its forecast for any rate cuts this year, to Charles Schwab suggesting the Fed’s threshold for further hikes is lowering, to bond markets already pricing in the risk of future rate increases, capital is repricing the possibility of “persistently high rates” or even “limited rate hikes.” This week’s U.S. CPI report will serve as a critical turning point: if energy prices continue to transmit inflationary pressures to end consumers, market expectations for a more hawkish Fed stance may intensify further. On the other hand, the AI industry is entering a new round of capital competition. OpenAI has officially filed for its IPO, Anthropic is preparing for its own listing, SpaceX has launched its IPO roadshow, while Google and NVIDIA continue expanding their computing investments—and Google’s large-scale procurement of TPUs from Intel underscores that the global AI infrastructure arms race is accelerating. Yet new questions are emerging: as interest rates remain elevated and bond yields continue rising, while a flood of IPOs and equity offerings enters the market, can capital markets still provide sufficient liquidity to support such massive valuations? From a capital structure perspective, the greatest risk is no longer merely inflation or war—it is that global demand for capital is beginning to outstrip liquidity supply. AI firms need funding, governments need to issue debt, energy shocks are pushing inflation higher, yet the Fed cannot deliver the accommodative environment markets expect. If the past two years’ market narrative was driven by growth expectations fueled by AI, then over the coming months, the market must verify whether these growth stories can withstand rising capital costs. For the crypto market, Bitcoin has now broken below its previous range support and completed a liquidity sweep to the downside; the market is now testing key demand zones near $62,000. Structurally, price has returned to the critical support zone established in February this year, reflecting suppressed risk appetite amid macroeconomic pressures. Notably, if this week’s CPI report again exceeds expectations, market expectations for Fed rate hikes will strengthen further, potentially subjecting risk assets to renewed liquidity pressure. Conversely, if inflation data comes in below expectations, it could provide short-term relief for recently revalued tech stocks and crypto markets. Until a new macro pricing regime is established, market volatility is likely to remain elevated.