Bitcoin Monthly Adjustment Structure Confirmed, HYPE Enters Entry Window

Last week, we clearly indicated in our weekly report that $60,000 was a relay point in this correction, not the bottom—a view directly validated by the market on June 5, when the price broke below this level, touching a low of $59,100. At this point, the full monthly-level a-b-c corrective structure since the October 2025 high of $126,200 has been fully established, and we are currently in the c-wave decline phase. The total correction duration has been less than 35 days, and the structure is far from complete.

This week, we will focus on tracking the height of the rebound and the pressure response: the two key resistance zones at $65,000 and $69,500–$70,500 will be critical indicators for determining the next price movement.

On the hype front, the top signal warned about last week has been confirmed, with the price dropping a maximum of 27% from $75.87; this week marks the entry phase for short-term positioning within the support zone. Strategically, the medium-term outlook remains bearish, awaiting an optimal window to add positions after the rebound completes.

This week's key trading insights summary:

• Multi-timeframe BTC price structure analysis (see Part 1 for details)

• BTC Weekly Market Outlook and Short- to Medium-Term Trading Strategy (see Part Two for details)

• HYPE Hourly Chart Structure Analysis (see Part Three for details)

• HYPE Weekly Market Outlook and Short-Term Trading Strategy (see Part 4 for details)

Last week’s trading strategy and core viewpoints market validation:

• BTC Price Trend Prediction Verified by Market Action: In last week’s article, we noted that after a weak rebound, Bitcoin remained in a sideways downward pattern, with a short-term strategy focused on “selling on rallies.” The current market movement has confirmed our earlier prediction.

• HYPE Price Trend Prediction Verified by Market Action: In last week’s article, we noted that HYPE faced multiple resistance levels near $75.87, making it likely to form a short-term top. The current market movement strongly aligns with our prediction.

BTC Daily Timeframe Price Structure Analysis: (Based on the price action following the low on February 6, 2026)

Bitcoin _ Daily Candlestick Chart:

Figure 1

1. Dynamic Analysis of Bitcoin Market Structure Based on Elliott Wave Theory: (Reevaluation of Key Turning Points Since the October 2025 High Adjustment)

As shown in Figure 1, after reaching a historical high of approximately $126,200 in October 2025, the Bitcoin market entered a deep correction phase. By early February 2026, the price touched a low of $60,000 on February 6, followed by a rebound lasting approximately 90 days. During this period, the market vigorously debated whether $60,000 represented the final bottom of this correction or merely an intermediate low. Our analysis has consistently favored the latter view—that $60,000 was a阶段性 low point rather than the ultimate bottom—and that the rally beginning on February 6 was a rebound within a larger corrective structure, not a trend reversal, with further downside expected to break below the $60,000 level.

Here is a review of the evolution based on the technical analysis framework:

① Initial Qualification (Mid-February): Corrective rebound within Wave C (i.e., C-2 rebound wave)

In our weekly analysis on February 16, we clearly stated that the rally in Bitcoin since its low on February 6 was an oversold rebound within the larger "C-wave" correction, and that a subsequent "C-3" wave correction is expected, during which a breakdown below $60,000 is highly likely.

② Mid-term adjustment (late April): Reclassification of wave structure

In our weekly analysis on April 20, we noted that as the rebound extended in both time and magnitude, by April 19, this rally had lasted approximately 73 days—far exceeding the 54-day duration of a typical "Wave B" rebound. Consequently, we reclassified this rally as a major-level "Wave D" rebound. A subsequent "Wave E" correction is likely to fall below the $60,000 support level.

③. Later Upgrade (Mid-May): Reassessment of Tier Adjustments

In the weekly analysis on May 18, we again emphasized that, as of May 17, this rebound had lasted approximately 100 days, nearing the duration of the prior decline from $126,200 to $60,000 (approximately 122 days). This led us to conclude that the entire correction pattern is highly likely to escalate to a monthly-level correction. Consequently, we redefined the wave structure.

④ Summary: The entire analytical process has been a dynamic tracking of market structure evolution. Throughout this period, we consistently regarded $60,000 as a significant intermediate level within a larger corrective phase, rather than the final bottom of this bear market cycle. As of now, with the price breaking below the key support at $60,000 on June 5 and reaching a low near $59,100, the overall market movement has confirmed our earlier assessment that the price would break below this level.

2. Wave classification of BTC based on the monthly time frame structure

Bitcoin _ Monthly K-line Chart:

Figure 2

① The Bitcoin monthly chart shows: From January 1, 2017, to the present (this segment contains complete trading data), the current structure can be divided into four distinct phases;

• Phase 0-1 (Bull Cycle): From $751 (January 1, 2017) to $69,000 (November 10, 2021), lasting approximately 59 months (about 1,774 days).

• 1-2 cycles (adjustment period): From $69,000 (November 10, 2021) to $15,476 (November 21, 2022), lasting approximately 13 months (about 376 days). The maximum decline during this period was approximately 77.57%.

• 2–3 phases (bull cycle): From $15,476 (November 21, 2022) to $126,200 (October 6, 2025), lasting approximately 35 months (1,050 days). The primary upward wave reached a new all-time high, with a maximum gain of approximately 715.46%.

• 3-4 cycle (adjustment period): Since $126,200 (October 6, 2025), approximately 8 months (about 243 days) have passed, during which the maximum drawdown was 53.17%.

② As shown in Figure 2, the correction since the previous high of $126,200 (i.e., segments 3–4) can be preliminarily identified as a monthly-level a-b-c three-wave corrective structure, with the market currently in the c-wave decline phase.

• Wave A (downward wave): $126,200 (October 6, 2025) to $60,000 (February 6, 2026), lasting approximately 4 months (about 122 days), with a maximum decline of around 52.5%.

• Wave B (rebound wave): $60,000 (February 6, 2026) to $82,850 (May 6, 2026), lasting 3 months (approximately 90 days), with a maximum increase of about 38.1%.

• Wave C (decline): Since $82,850 (May 6, 2026), lasting 33 days. On June 5, the price broke below the $60,000 support level, reaching a low of approximately $59,100. This breakdown confirms the formation of Wave C (decline).

In-depth Analysis of BTC Hourly Price Structure: (Analysis Period: 4 Hours)

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 3

① As shown in Figure 3, the correction since the high of $82,850 on May 6 can be subdivided on the 4-hour chart into a 10-segment corrective structure, comprising two descending central patterns: Central D and Central E. The overall structure is clear and exhibits a typical complex corrective pattern.

② From the 4-hour chart structure, the market is currently in the 36-37 rebound phase. The first resistance is near $65,000; key resistance lies in the $69,500–$70,500 range.

1. BTC Weekly Price Movement Forecast:

This week's key insights:

• Monitor how both bulls and bears react to tests of the $65,000 level and the resistance zone between $69,500 and $70,500.

Also monitor the support effect at the $59,000–$60,000 price level.

2. Key Resistance Level:

• First resistance zone: around $65,000 (previous key low)

• Second pressure zone: $69,500 to $70,500 range (previous area of high trading volume)

3. Key Support Level:

• First support level: $59,000–$60,000 range (previous key support level)

• Second support level: around $55,000 (previous key support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Impact from Sudden News)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 4, the current asset price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming a technical shift to a bearish-dominated structure. Last week, the market experienced a one-sided, unimpeded sharp decline with insufficient rebound momentum. This market condition does not align with our established medium-term trend-following entry criteria; therefore, we maintain a neutral medium-term position and remain on the sidelines.

If a technical rebound occurs this week, you can gradually establish short positions using the following three-tier strategy:

• Weak rebound short: If the price rebounds to around $65,000 and shows signs of stagnation, consider initiating a preliminary 20% medium-term short position.

• Add to short position at strong resistance zone: If the price rebounds further to the $69,500–$70,500 range and shows clear signs of resistance, increase the medium-term short position to 60%.

• Breakout Short: If the price rebounds unsuccessfully near $65,000 and subsequently breaks below the $59,000–$60,000 support zone with conviction, consider adding to your short position up to 60%.

② Short-term strategy: Use a 30% position size, set stop-loss levels, and identify spread opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use a 30-minute or 60-minute time frame for trading.)

③. For short-term trading, to dynamically respond to the complex evolution of the market, we have pre-established two specific action plans, A and B.

• Option A: Rebound faces resistance; sell on rallies.

• Open Position: If the coin price rebounds to around $65,000 and shows signs of stagnation, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a 15% short position.

Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss level.

• Close Position: When the price adjusts near a key support level and aligns with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

• Option B: Add position at a strong resistance zone.

• Add to position: If the price rebounds further to the vicinity of $69,500–$70,500 and shows signs of stagnation, combined with a quantitative model's top signal, consider increasing the short position to 30%.

Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss level.

• Close Position: When the price adjusts near a key support level and aligns with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

• Option C: A valid breakdown below support signals a顺势 short position.

• Open Position: If the price fails to rebound near $65,000 and subsequently breaks below the $59,000–$60,000 support range with conviction, combined with a model-derived top signal, consider increasing the short position to 30%.

Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss level.

• Close Position: When the price declines to a key support level combined with model signals, gradually close your position to realize profits.

HYPE 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 5

1. As shown in Figure 5, over the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE rose from its low of $38.14 on May 14 to its high of $75.87 on June 2, clearly forming a seven-segment structure that includes an "upward channel."

2. As highlighted in last week’s market review: due to the formation of a momentum bearish divergence at Endpoint 47, combined with a top warning signal from the spread trading model, these two factors created a reinforcing effect. Thus, the probability of a short-term high forming at this level was significant. Market movement has confirmed this assessment: the price adjusted from Endpoint 47 ($75.87) to Endpoint 48 ($55.47), reaching a maximum decline of 26.89%.

3. Currently, the HYPE price has stabilized and rebounded at the $55 support level, and is now in the process of rebounding from $48 to $49. The resistance above is located in the $62.50 to $64.57 range. If the price rebounds to this level and then reverses downward, it will likely continue to seek stronger support below.

1. HYPE This Week's Market Trend Forecast:

①. Key resistance level:

• First resistance zone: $62.5–$64.57;

• Second resistance level: $68–70 range;

②. Key Support Level:

• First support level: $55–$57 range;

• Second support level: $47–$49 range;

This week's key insights on HYPE:

• Observe how price reacts when testing resistance and support levels.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-Term Trading Strategy: (Buy on Support)

This week, HYPE short-term trading should follow the strategy of "buying on dips and avoiding chasing rallies."

Short-term strategy: Wait for stabilization at the support zone before initiating long positions.

When the HYPE price retraces to the key support zone of $55–$57 or the deeper $47–$49 support level, and shows signs of stabilization alongside bottom signals triggered by two major models, consider initiating a small long position with a position size under 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

1. When opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to secure your principal.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

4. Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit in the coin price, the stop-loss level will move up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are constantly changing; all market analysis and trading strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are based on personal technical analysis and are intended solely for personal trading journal use; they do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. The market carries risks—invest with caution and do not make decisions based on this information.