Foreign media: In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the market is currently focused on AI stocks, crypto assets, and interest rate expectations, while underestimating oil prices' influence on politics and the economy. He believes that Bitcoin may face short-term pressure before rebounding.
Oil prices remain the key variable.
In his article titled "Reality Test," Hayes stated that energy remains the foundation of economic activity. Although disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have constrained global energy supplies, the rise in oil prices has not been sufficient to compel Iran or the United States to move more quickly toward compromise.
In his view, this has kept the market in a temporary equilibrium, with neither side forced to compromise and hardline positions remaining viable. However, this state is difficult to sustain long-term, as continued rises in oil prices would put pressure on inflation and consumer prices, increasing political pressure.
The AI sector absorbs liquidity
Hayes believes that recent new liquidity has not significantly flowed into the crypto market but has instead been largely absorbed by the AI hype. This means that valuation changes in the AI sector have become more closely linked to Bitcoin’s short-term performance.
He believes that if AI valuations decline, the impact will not be limited to tech stocks but will also affect risk assets, including Bitcoin. This is because such adjustments will first reduce overall risk appetite and tighten liquidity, rather than immediately redirecting funds back into the crypto market.
- Partially exited positions in HYPE, NEAR, and others.
- Simultaneously reduce holdings in some AI and crypto assets.
- The goal is to retain more funds.
Still bullish after short-term pressure
Although short-term sentiment is cautious, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook, explicitly stating that he believes Bitcoin will “fall first, then rise.”
The article notes that Bitcoin has fallen over 21% in the past month, recently trading at $63,244.44. Meanwhile, the Spot Taker CVD indicator has not shown the typical bullish buying pressure seen in strong bull markets, suggesting that while there is still demand in the market, upward momentum has begun to slow.