US consumers have NEVER been this indebted: US credit card debt jumped +$22 billion in Q3 2026, to a record $1.29 TRILLION. Since 2020, this figure has surged +$478 billion. Furthermore, the average credit card balance per consumer rose +2.4% YoY, to $6,678, according to TransUnion. Overall, the number of people with credit cards rose +2% to a massive 178 million. The worst part? The average interest rate on US credit card debt stands at ~24%, near its all-time high. US consumers are drowning in expensive debt.

Fomc is December 9th A good job report (which I don't believe but that's beside the point) Along with high inflation = Higher rates and a market drop

Fed Logan: - The Fed clearly indicated, referencing its inflation data, that it needs to raise rates by at least two more 25-basis-point increments. Faster rate hikes may be necessary this winter. - Gradually adjusting monetary policy can help reduce the risk of excessive economic slowdown. - It is crucial to immediately balance the outlook on inflation and employment against the risks in these areas. - High interest rates in the bond market signal that further policy tightening is still required. - It would be prudent to pause after two rate hikes and reassess the next steps. - The Fed’s policy rate remains at least 50 basis points below the level considered moderately restrictive.

At least 50 basis points more. That is Dallas Fed President Logan's floor. She says the FOMC needs at least two more 25bp hikes, and faster moves are possible this winter if inflation expectations rise. Logan votes in December.

BREAKING: CICC maintains its call for a 25 bps Fed rate hike in December. October CPI rose 0.4% MoM (prior: 0.6%). Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, the third consecutive month at that pace. Both exceeded market expectations. Fed Governor Waller has not ruled out a 50 bps hike. CICC sees no strong need to accelerate, noting that policy is not significantly behind the curve and financial conditions are already tightening at the margin. Base case: a gradual, moderate tightening path.

The curse has struck again—the monthly CPI came in higher than expected on both fronts. The annual rate hasn’t been released, likely because the government shutdown in November left no reliable CPI data. Today’s panic stems primarily from comments by Waller, a scholarly Fed governor, who said, “We need to reverse at least the last three precautionary cuts.” Waller was previously a top contender for the next Fed chair. Actually, Bee Brother thinks there’s no need to panic too much. We’ve already hiked once in September, a December hike is certain, and we’ll likely hike just once more in Q1 next year—totaling exactly three hikes. As for Q2 next year, Bee Brother has analyzed this countless times: oil prices began rising in March this year; by Q2 next year, when you do the math, the annual CPI rate will come down. So, Bee Brother previously predicted that market conditions would gradually improve in Q1 or Q2—now it seems Q2 is more likely.

If interest rates are raised in December 2026, isn’t that precisely a favorable opportunity to position yourself before a new cycle begins? Why be pessimistic? Is the利好 only when prices surge to the point where everyone is shouting “bull market,” overwhelmed by FOMO, regret over missing out, and heated arguments?

October CPI core monthly rate came in at exactly 0.296% (rounding to 0.3%), marking the third consecutive month above forecasts from major investment banks... inflation remains too hot, pushing the probability of a December rate hike to 93%.

The U.S. Senate Democrats are preparing to impose a 10% cap on credit card interest rates.

October CPI: Core hit the target; a 50-basis-point hike in December has shifted from a tail risk to a viable option. October CPI rose +0.4% MoM vs. +0.3% expected; core CPI rose +0.3% MoM vs. +0.2% expected, marking the third consecutive month at +0.3%; super-core CPI rose +0.4%. Waller laid out the conditions plainly during the day: if core inflation remains around 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike should be considered. Tonight’s data precisely met that threshold—frustrating, to say the least. With oil prices already down to $85, this outcome feels utterly baffling. Before Waller’s speech, Polymarket odds for the December Fed meeting were: 25 bps hike at 78.5%, no change at 19.5%, 50 bps hike under 1%. Before CPI: 25 bps rose to 87.5%, 50 bps at ~4%. After CPI: 25 bps at ~84.5%, 50 bps at ~11%, no change at 2.5%. Kalshi showed similar trends: 25 bps dropped from 88% to 82%, hikes over 25 bps rose from 5% to 12%, no change fell from 8% to 4%. The probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point hike by end of 2026 (i.e., a 50-basis-point hike in December) is now around 9%. Oil prices are pricing in a ceasefire: WTI has fallen below $85, down ~19% from its October 30 high; CNBC reports Brent has slipped below $90, yet the Strait of Hormuz blockade remains in place. Oil is holding down energy costs but failing to curb core inflation. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose ~16 bps to 4.70%, the dollar index hovered near 102, gold fell 2.4%, and Nasdaq futures dropped ~1.5%. BTC slid to $73,588, its lowest level in 11 weeks; spot ETFs saw net outflows of ~$1.48 billion over the first six trading days of November, and U.S. public companies have sold ~108,000 BTC so far this year. The December 9 rate decision precedes the November CPI release on December 10; Friday’s PPI is the next key variable. 1. 25 bps hike (~82–85% probability): Moderate PPI, continued oil decline, 2-year yield back below 4.6%—giving growth stocks and BTC some breathing room. 2. 50 bps hike (~11–12% probability): Hotter-than-expected PPI or more officials backing Waller’s stance. If the 2-year yield holds above 4.7%, BTC could test $73k. 3. No change (2.5–4% probability): Only likely if equities or credit spreads deteriorate sharply. Oil prices keep falling, yet core inflation has held steady at +0.3% for three straight months—indicating inflation has now migrated from energy to core components. Oil’s cooling effect is no longer enough to pull it down. Thus, whether to hike in December is no longer in doubt; the only remaining question is by how much.