In this environment, whether it’s the U.S. stock market or crypto, wouldn’t it be better to focus on spot trading? Historically, in the medium to long term, the U.S. stock market has a very high probability of rising in the year following midterm elections, and crypto is also transitioning from a bear to a bull market. But aren’t there already plenty of short-term disruptions—hacks, midterm elections, U.S.-Iran tensions, oil prices? Everyone knows that wealth comes from taking risks—that’s true. But what about the second half? Wealth comes from risk—but so does loss! You succeed in one out of ten attempts, but fail in nine out of ten.

I don’t understand why so many people hope that BTC and ETH can freeze hacker funds like centralized stablecoins. Isn’t decentralization precisely what makes BTC and ETH truly appealing? It’s neither realistic nor necessary for the entire world to be decentralized. But if the entire world were centralized, what would be the point? Centralization and decentralization are like rice and dishes—they’re best enjoyed together.

Recently, more than one friend reached out to Bee Brother, expressing interest in collaborating on cross-border e-commerce. (Probably because it’s hard to make money domestically, so they want to earn abroad.) Bee Brother did a quick search on Twitter but found nothing related to cross-border e-commerce—instead, he stumbled upon this e-commerce RWA project: @DowProtocol. Bee Brother had previously noticed this project while following the SUI ecosystem. This time, he took a closer look, because RWA is the true future and path forward for Web3; without real-world integration, DeFi and decentralization remain castles in the air. While tokenizing U.S. Treasuries, stocks, and gold is important, it often feels repetitive—innovative RWA projects are rare. Dow’s RWA is backed by accounts receivable from real-world e-commerce merchants. The core mechanism is that an on-chain Vault provides funding to e-commerce sellers, and when the receivables are collected, the funds are returned to the Vault. For e-commerce merchants, Dow’s value lies in enabling them to receive discounted cash upfront during the typically long settlement periods on platforms—alleviating cash flow pressure—similar to accounts receivable factoring. For Web3 users, Dow offers the opportunity to earn interest by depositing idle funds into the Vault, paid by merchants as a discount fee. Thus, projects like Dow genuinely bridge Web2 and Web3—they have real-world business models and tangible cash flows supporting them. Currently, two active Vaults are live on BSC and SUI, and two Vaults have already matured and been redeemed.

Conditions may gradually improve after Q2 next year. This year, oil prices were relatively normal in Q1, surged in Q2, and were slightly lower overall in Q3 compared to Q2. The annual CPI/PCE rate in Q1 next year will likely continue rising, but after Q2, unless oil prices rise further, overall annual inflation rates should stabilize. Trump and Iran are unlikely to push oil prices even higher. Although the volume of oil exported from the Middle East has decreased, higher oil prices have also reduced demand; theoretically, oil prices should reach a new equilibrium under revised supply-demand dynamics. (They may fluctuate with U.S.-Iran relations, but are unlikely to enter a significantly higher range.) Of course, due to minor discrepancies between real-world oil prices and financial product valuations, along with statistical noise, occasional price increases may occur—but these will not be surges, and the overall trend will not continue upward. There may be one rate hike in Q1 next year, or possibly none. Q2 to Q3 should enter a holding pattern, with no further rate hikes expected. To be honest, U.S. equities remain uncertain. Bee Brother suspects that this AI boom stems from the massive monetary easing between 2020 and 2021, which provided liquidity to support AI research and development. Under current conditions, AI stock prices may wait for actual industry progress to catch up—but they’re unlikely to replicate the 2000 dot-com bubble unless another 9/11-level event occurs. However, after more than a year of suppression, crypto should reasonably perform better. A major rally still depends on monetary easing—but as long as U.S. Treasuries don’t default, crypto could see a modest uptrend. Of course, this remains a阶段性 (phase-based) assessment; we’ll need to adapt as events unfold.

Tonight’s FOMC meeting had a lot of content, but it can be summed up in three words: take a breath. ┈➤ October rate hold: the market takes a breath Fed officials voted 10-2 to hold rates steady in October, as expected. However, the FOMC statement emphasized that “domestic spending remains robust, productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is highly active,” noting a stable labor market and that “inflation remains elevated,” while reaffirming the 2% target. Thus, a rate hike in December is still likely—meaning October was merely a temporary breather. ┈➤ Wash is dovish: the market takes another breath Wash proposed a financial instrument—an inflation swap contract—that reflects market expectations for future inflation. He noted that this indicator suggests market expectations for inflation are “moving in a favorable direction.” This aligns with previous analyses by Bee Brother: whether CPI or PCE, both market attention and the Fed’s target refer to annual rates. If oil prices remain within a certain range this year into next—even if that range is relatively high—the year-over-year CPI calculation next year will not be significantly elevated. Wash’s remarks were clearly dovish, giving the market another moment to breathe. Compared to the October hold, this was an unexpected short-term positive. ┈➤ FOMC reform: both the Fed and the market get a chance to breathe At this meeting, Wash advanced a reform. While maintaining eight FOMC meetings per year, one or two meetings annually may involve discussion only, without interest rate voting. This means there could be only seven to eight actual rate decisions per year. Fed officials would gain an additional one to two months of observation time, potentially reducing their workload. For markets, whether in a hiking or cutting cycle, the pace may slightly slow down. According to Wash’s remarks, in September 2027, one FOMC meeting will be discussion-only with no rate vote. For 2028, it remains uncertain, but Wash expects two such voting pauses. ┈➤ Final thoughts Bee Brother believes next September could be the turning point. Since March this year, WTI oil prices have oscillated between $70 and $110, peaking in September. If oil prices remain within this range next year, year-over-year CPI will not rise significantly. There may still be a risk of another hike in Q1 next year, as oil prices hadn’t risen yet in January–February this year. However, April–September next year could serve as an observation period. If oil prices continue without new highs by next September, year-over-year CPI may begin to decline. With no rate decision scheduled for September, the Fed may discuss initiating rate cuts.

Yesterday, I bought some $GOOGL at 325 and 303, and placed additional orders at 280 and 270. Now I’m worried I won’t get filled—and also worried I will… 🤣 Who understands this feeling? https://t.co/kRlPcxM423

I can’t stop laughing—I actually had a StandX airdrop… $1.88 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 A friend earlier invited me to deposit some funds into StandX. After just one week, another friend mentioned an upcoming KOL round that required depositing first to qualify for a withdrawal—I immediately suspected the project was underfunded and pulled out my money. Later, when the product launched, I tried it a few times and lost over $100—admittedly, my trading skills aren’t great, so I took full responsibility and withdrew everything. Then came the airdrop… and I saw it was $1.88. I just laughed and cried. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 In contrast, @NeoSoulAI—an AI prediction product—I gave it a quick try. After deploying the Agent in under two hours, I left it alone to auto-predict… and ended up with a $1250 DNA airdrop. Then there’s @doppler_fi—I deposited $2000 in February and kept it there until around September, earning about $125 in interest. They also airdropped 5696 XDP, which was worth $170 at the time and is still worth $101 today. The project still offers a 7% APY on RLUSD deposits. The takeaway? Airdrops and trading are completely different: In trading: the more people involved, the more you should join. In airdrops: the more people involved, the more you should avoid. Over the past two years, airdrops from projects like Monad and StandX have been all hype—big promises, tiny payouts. Instead, look for niche projects with low public buzz but solid backgrounds—and get in early!

Before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, this occurred more than once: The Nasdaq-100 was rising while the S&P 500 was falling—specifically in August–September 1999 and February 2000. It appeared that leading internet and tech stocks were draining momentum from the broader U.S. market. The most recent occurrence of this same pattern was in December 2024, followed by a U.S. market pullback from February to May 2025. While this could be coincidental—given that Trump was imposing tariffs at the time— since the beginning of 2025, no such monthly divergence between NDX and SPX has reappeared; their monthly trends have moved in close sync. Instead, in July 2026, the Nasdaq-100 declined while the S&P 500 rose. Brother Bee has analyzed this multiple times: the market is deliberately avoiding a repeat of past patterns.

Iran and Trump are trading barbs; the market has gradually become desensitized to such news, and expectations are growing for significant volatility by year-end. Trump called Iran a failed nation, while Iran responded that Trump’s remarks reveal desperation. Trump also stated tonight that “the war with Iran may end soon.” Yet oil prices have shown no clear reaction—the market has grown numb to such information. WTI oil reached its peak in March, with subsequent highs declining. However, since July, oil price lows have been rising. First, oil prices overall are showing a converging trend, with the convergence peak likely occurring by year-end, coinciding with Christmas, which could trigger market volatility. Second, in the upcoming midterm elections, Trump’s Republican Party is expected to lose at least the House of Representatives, leading to a shift in policy dominance—a change that may introduce market volatility before year-end. Third, the temporary budget is set to expire by year-end, prompting another round of congressional voting on the budget. If no final agreement is reached, the government could face another shutdown. Fourth, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to raise rates once more in December; if the dot plot signals a hawkish or moderately hawkish stance, it will constitute another negative factor.

deBridge’s new milestone: $2.5 billion in total cross-chain volume. Meanwhile, 698,954,237 $DBR tokens have been repurchased, valued at $12.93 million at current price. The repurchase represents 6.99% of the total DBR supply and an impressive 36.32% of the circulating supply. https://t.co/9LjmEijwcH