Often, when we make investments or any decisions, we need to consider what we stand to gain if we’re right, and what the cost of being wrong might be. We must never focus solely on the expected gains—we must also ask whether we can afford the cost of a mistake. Many people, unable to bear the cost of failure, still choose a path of no return due to greed. I’ve said many times that making money is actually quite simple, because we have relatively certain paths to profit. A major reason many end up losing large sums is their constant desire to seek great wealth through high risk. Of course, I’m not saying this approach is wrong—but can you afford the cost of taking that risk?
Over the past few years, most of my investment losses came from allocating part of my capital to test new trends, signal groups, or market fads. I can’t speak for everyone, but I likely represent a large portion of traders who lack firsthand information, don’t sit glued to screens 24/7, aren’t lucky enough to catch early moves, or aren’t part of insider circles. Being late is an inevitable fate for such traders. However, following your own rhythm and trading in line with market sentiment will very likely allow you to capture the middle-range price spreads. So, I advise people like us not to chase shortcuts or gimmicks—instead, focus diligently on major trends and longer timeframes. If you’re capable, supplement that with trading overall market sentiment and selecting a few key assets favored by institutional money. Small capital can be allocated to lottery-like bets or speculative plays, but don’t try to scale up positions to chase big gains. Because often, when you try to increase your position for a big win, you risk taking a big loss. In reality, lottery-style bets and speculative plays aren’t meant for making money—they’re purely for entertainment.
The more you watch, the more confused you become; the more you act, the less money you make. Isn’t that right? Every day, the market is flooded with all kinds of analysis—but how much of it is truly useful? Think again: are bull and bear markets really as decisive as they seem? Does being in a bull market guarantee profits? Does a bear market guarantee losses? Will prices really never fall again? Will they never rise again? Directional predictions involve probability, but time always sides with those who diverge from the crowd.
After reviewing recent developments, I found that the recent China-U.S. talks still failed to resolve the Iran-U.S. conflict, and the Iran-U.S. negotiations have once again collapsed. I hadn’t been following Iran-U.S. affairs closely for a long time—since the last U.S. visit to China, I essentially stopped paying attention—but the situation has become important again. The market’s hoped-for turning point has not materialized: if even high-level China-U.S. talks couldn’t reach an agreement, it’s even less likely that a future summit alone will bring a ceasefire. Iran and the U.S. will likely continue engaging in intermittent hostilities. The fighting will eventually end, but the market’s brief sense of relief has faded again, as no one knows when a genuine ceasefire will occur. The most important upcoming event is the U.S. midterm election on November 3, but market performance around recent midterm elections has generally been weak.
Everyone knows that for assets with higher potential prices in the future—even those that may never reach higher levels—every pullback or decline can present an opportunity, regardless of market conditions. But the problem is, this logic is meaningless in practice because most people don’t have unlimited capital, nor can they split their assets into infinite fragments to buy at every dip, and even if they could, the profits would be negligible. That’s why it’s essential to assess trends, the level of rebounds, and determine how much of a decline justifies a purchase.
The fact that some assets in the crypto market have performed well recently does not invalidate our previous perspective—this is different from my multiple statements in April and May about lowering Bitcoin’s ultra-low price expectations. One refers to the overall macro trend, while the other concerns a precise adjustment of price expectations.
This tweet failed to send yesterday, and today it’s already outdated—there’s no need to revisit it. But upon reflection, the underlying message still holds value, so I’ll post it anyway. Responding to certain topics isn’t about engaging with trolls; it’s about filtering. Sometimes, showing vulnerability isn’t weakness—it’s stepping back to see people more clearly. What follows is the final mutual filter for those recently confused: if, after reading this, you still blame me for your bad outcomes, I will block you. Don’t say I’m petty if I then publicly call you out. Those who aren’t confused but are outright hostile will be blocked immediately—no explanations needed. That’s all. Read carefully. ↷ “You don’t like AI, you fear the AI bubble 🫧 will burst completely, you haven’t opened an account, you haven’t paid attention, you haven’t taken it seriously…”—there are endless excuses. Why do you blame yourself for missing out on AI gains, but when it comes to crypto, you say, “You didn’t let me buy at the absolute bottom”? Isn’t it true that you were too afraid to buy when prices dropped and too afraid to chase when they rose? Isn’t it because you feared MicroStrategy’s collapse, or feared this or that? Do you really think you could’ve gone all-in at the bottom—and that I held you back? Why didn’t you pay attention when I pointed out the rebound after the initial rally, especially around the two key events in September? The rebound strategy was clearly planned and unchanged from the start. Why didn’t you act? Did I stop you from playing the rebound? Why didn’t you blame me when you missed the top? Think deeply about these questions. If, after thinking them through, you still choose to blame me for your losses—I won’t stop you. But I won’t accept it either.
I’ve finished watching all previous seasons of "The Treasure Basin," and the two characters that left the deepest impression on me are “cause and effect.” Don’t easily interfere in others’ cause and effect, because cause and effect must be repaid—especially when meddling in someone else’s negative karma, you will also bear the corresponding consequences. Don’t try to save others unless you have sufficient strength. Of course, you may cultivate good karma, but don’t force it. Avoid creating bad karma, as it will come back to haunt you. Those who repay kindness with hostility will also face retribution. A world where justice is swift and revenge is clear—that is the ideal.