Back at the hotel, I noticed something else... The on-chain data from the 22nd was terrifying—over 300,000 coins traded, with short-term traders realizing $3 billion in profits (take-profit) and over $1 billion in losses (stop-loss). A massive spike... Several tools didn’t reveal anything clear... So I just had AI pull all the blocks from the 22nd... Within minutes, it gave me the conclusion: It was just three wallets belonging to a single large holder or entity reorganizing their holdings. In this era of vibe coding, instead of guessing what each on-chain data point means using various tools, it’s better to simply run your own BTC node and pull all block data... Once I get back from vacation, I’ll set up the node—it’s only about 1TB of data anyway. A few days of processing will handle all the historical data.
Yesterday, ETFs experienced heavy selling throughout the day… After a final sharp plunge trapped traders, buying pressure exhausted by the close (as ETF selling pressure ended with the U.S. market close) (Figure 1). Now, large orders are densely positioned within a narrow range across contracts… (Figure 2) Today will likely remain range-bound within this level… https://t.co/VTmU4jJerO
Watched the scene at the airport... Yesterday, they still couldn’t get past the spot trader... (Figure 1) His sell orders filled well, but after the U.S. market closed, spot buying power simply wasn’t enough... Then this guy ended up buying back some of the same coins he just sold? (Around $84K) I don’t get it—anyway, yesterday was all about his performance... Once the price failed to hold above $84K, longs started capitulating... ------------------ Yesterday, ETF inflows totaled $500 million... Today, they woke up to find themselves trapped... So after U.S. markets open today, watch out for another downward spike (some ETFs may be exiting)... ------------------ Open interest has now reset to levels seen on the 20th... All longs since this rally began have been wiped out... All shorts above $84K have also been cleared out... Both sides have been thoroughly shaken out... ------------------ Given recent behavior like this, longs below $81K should also tread carefully...
The concentration of筹码 at Melbourne University has once again approached 15% (Figure 1). Last time it reached around 15%, it remained range-bound for another 11 days. Let’s examine the specific distribution of筹码: From mid-August, just before this rally began (when the previous concentration hit 15%), through mid-September, approximately 720,000 coins were moved out of the 60,000 original position—most of this turnover occurred within the 10 days following the surge past 70,000 in August (likely short-term traders taking profits) (Figure 2). In this second wave, from mid-September to now, the 60,000 position has only decreased by 180,000 coins. The main turnover has been among those who bought between 76,000 and 80,000 in September, now shifting their positions to the 82,000–88,000 range (Figure 3). Overall, in this current wave, the original 60,000 base position has held firm and hasn’t sold much. Older trapped holders above 88,000 have sold a small portion here, and short-term traders who bought around 70,000 have also sold here. All are converging toward the center—that’s why the concentration has once again reached 15%. ------------ High筹码 concentration typically implies larger future volatility—but the direction remains uncertain. However, a breakout is likely to occur within these final two weeks of October. Starting October 21, major U.S. tech giants begin reporting earnings: (Oct 21: Meta, TSLA | Oct 28: GOOGL, MSFT | Oct 29: MSTR, AMZN, COIN | Nov 2: AAPL) Simultaneously, on October 28: FOMC meeting; on October 29: PCE and GDP data. October is currently priced with a high probability of no rate hike—market expectations have dropped from nearly 40% after CPI to under 15%. The key focus at the October FOMC will be the Fed’s tone regarding December (currently priced at a 74% probability) and whether liquidity conditions improve after the meeting. -------------- Current data is contradictory: Short-term: No new ETF inflows—$450 million has flowed out over the past seven days. Macro headwinds persist—10-year Treasury yields remain above 5%. Price is hovering near the lower edge of October’s range—at around 84,000, many buyers are trapped. But medium-to-long-term: The overall trend remains intact—price still trades above short-term holders’ average cost (currently around 74,000). The original 60,000 base position has held steady during this October rally—no additional bottom-layer selling pressure. -------------- So right now, it’s impossible to determine which direction the market will take. Any change in conditions could trigger a move. Downside scenario: FOMC turns hawkish in October—December rate hike probability surges above 90% + weak earnings drag stocks lower + continued ETF outflows. Possible outcomes: Daily close below 84,000—breaks above the current range and retests September’s lower range—short-term trend weakens. Break below 76,000–74,000 (September low + short-term holder cost)—all short-term traders turn unprofitable; on-chain data often treats this as the short-term bull/bear divide. ------------ Upside scenario: FOMC is neutral to dovish—December probability drops below 50% + earnings support equities + ETFs resume sustained net inflows + macro liquidity improves. Possible outcomes: Reclaims 84,500—short-term trend turns bullish (bull/bear divide within October range). Breaks above 87,000 (October high)—confirms upward momentum; next targets: 90,000 → then 95,000. ------------ If neither scenario materializes, the market will continue consolidating until the next catalyst emerges.
After the CPI... BTC has held up better compared to gold and the US dollar index. Earlier, a small order triggered a spike and dropped to $82.6K. Currently, this level remains a vacuum in the order book. Aggressive contract positioning lies below $82K, and spot grid orders also show small activity around $82K. Larger capital is concentrated near $80–81K (Figure 1). Liquidity is also primarily clustered at these two levels (Figure 2). Today, keep an eye on these two areas... https://t.co/poZOCoZf1C
Core CPI is out of control... It’s not just the headline 0.3%—when calculated, it’s even hotter at 0.335%. Both core goods and core services are accelerating together, showing broad-based increases. Used cars up +0.7%, clothing up +0.3%—both rising, driven by tariffs and higher vehicle prices. This can’t be dismissed as a one- or two-month anomaly anymore. The Fed likely can’t ignore this... The probability of a rate hike in October has instantly jumped to 30%.