Brazil held an election Sunday. By Monday morning, every Brazilian saver had a new exchange rate, and none of them voted for it. Lula won a comeback, 51.8% to 48.2%, and his supporters celebrated. Markets had bet on the other result. The dollar went from R$4.99 on Friday to about R$5.60 Monday morning. The stock exchange halted trading for 30 minutes after the opening plunge. Here’s what that looks like at the kitchen table. R$10,000 in savings bought about $2,000 on Friday. Today it buys about $1,790. Imported wheat, fertilizer, phones and flights abroad are all priced off the dollar, so they now cost more in reais. Paychecks didn’t go up to match. And it didn’t matter how anyone voted. Winners and losers took the same hit. That’s what it means for money to be political. Bitcoin’s supply schedule didn’t change Sunday night and it doesn’t change after any election, anywhere.

$MELI traded at $1,613 at 5:30 AM ET, down 10.9% from Friday, while $EWZ was down 27%. Brazil was 52.6% of its 2025 revenue, so the rest cushioned it. I own it. Sunday I wrote the vote moves the multiple and the Q3 margin decides the stock. Still my view. No trade.

Today, your feed is all about Brazil: Lula’s comeback, Petrobras down 10%, Goldman Sachs saying a batch of macro funds are set to die tomorrow, with circuit breakers ready to trigger. But the most-read post today has nothing to do with Brazil. 760,000 people saw it—almost no one paused to consider what it actually meant.

lula at 20c was the cheapest hedge in brazil this weekend $10K long $EWZ from friday is -27% on the perps this morning ~$675 of lula yes at 20c would have covered the whole loss

i never let hype get in the way of my high IQ thoughts i was right to call the Brazil and fcc filling both nothing burgers for $asts space trash and would you look at that.. the stock following the PRsis trading sideways for hours below pre market's high lmfao just straight garabge

This tweet likely influenced Brazil’s election, but Brazilians are still sharing it widely. Even more astonishing, the original post was a Brazilian asking Chinese people to intervene— and Chinese people actually responded to that request. Even more remarkable: I’m from Taiwan, yet I attended Nanjing University of Science and Technology, a “red university.” This post is truly legendary!

It is worth noting that Brazil, one of the world’s ten largest economies, can see its stock market plunge nearly 17%, its small-cap stocks collapse 30%, and its currency lose 12% before noon on a Monday, with virtually no corresponding reaction across global stock markets, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, or traditional safe havens. No comparable panic. No meaningful global contagion. No systemic repricing. No impact. No effect. Remarkable.

🇧🇷 Over $200B wiped out from the Brazil stock market at open after Lula da Silva wins Brazil's presidential election, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro. This looks to me like a too much of a reaction. Heard that Lula is not Pro business, but still a 33% fall is too much. Brazil has also suspended trading on stock markets today due to circuit breakers. All eyes on $EWZ on how it trades now. I am long on EWZ on @variational_io, because I feel 33% correction is too much & market should come back to a reasonable valuation soon.

Brazil's financial markets plunged after President Lula da Silva unexpectedly won re-election. Brazilian equity ETFs (EWZ) dropped as much as 26%, the Brazilian Real lost about 10% against the USD, and the domestic stock index, Ibovespa, fell around 10% at open. Markets were even temporarily halted for 30 minutes due to extreme volatility. Prior to the election, many investors had bet on Flávio Bolsonaro’s victory, expecting the new government to implement spending cuts and more business-friendly policies. But the outcome defied expectations, prompting investors to sell off both stocks and the Real amid concerns over Brazil’s fiscal policy and public debt.