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ThePortablePortfolio

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Why did $SOFI gain 14.7% from Oct 23 to Oct 30? Its Q3 net interest margin rose 16 basis points to 6.14% while deposits reached $51.3B. More money in, earning more per dollar. I own it. It closed Oct 30 at $16.76.

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$AMZN spent $77.3B on property and equipment in Q3, up from $35.1B a year earlier. Spending grew 120%. AWS revenue grew 39%. That gap is the whole AI trade right now. https://t.co/mnvXDY4AD8

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$COHR fell 11.3% on Oct 30 to a $41.4B value. Lumentum, its laser rival, is worth $76.2B, and Bloomberg reported Oct 28 that Marvell is in talks to buy it. Most see a rival with a chip giant behind it. I see Coherent as the big laser maker no chip company owns. I hold $COHR.

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$MSFT paid for its AI build from cash last quarter: $18.6B of free cash flow, with Azure up 48%. Alphabet's free cash flow was -$9.1B. Amazon's capex more than doubled to $77.3B. I own $GOOG and $AMZN, not Microsoft. That ranking stings a little.

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$KLAC rose 8.4% this week. $INTC fell 28.6% on Friday alone. $AMD reports Tuesday after the close, and I own it. Same industry, opposite weeks. KLA guided its December quarter to about $4.7B, above the roughly $4.63B the street expected, and the stock went from $145.61 to $157.91. Intel beat its own guide, $0.52 a share against $0.38, then guided Q4 revenue to $15B-$16B when analysts expected $17.1B. The CFO blamed a PC slowdown running at least through the first half of next year. The stock went from $92.07 to $65.76 in one session. So the market is paying for one thing right now: next quarter's number. Last quarter's beat bought Intel nothing. That's my lens for AMD on Tuesday. AMD closed Friday at $504.80, down 2.3% on the week. Consensus sits near $1.97 a share on about $13.2B of revenue. I'll skip the headline beat and read the December guide and the data center line first. I own AMD, $KLAC and $NVDA. I don't own Intel. If AMD's guide comes in light, I hold and read the call. If the data center line shrinks quarter on quarter, that changes my mind.

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3 numbers from Brazil's runoff week, Oct 23 to Oct 30: 1. $EWZ: $42.59 to $32.46, down 23.8%. 2. The real: about 5.04 per dollar to 5.38. 3. $MELI: $1,810.15 to $1,624.53, down 10.3%. I own MercadoLibre. Nearly half its revenue sits outside Brazil, and that half showed. https://t.co/vRiVSk06jh

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2 of 12 Fed voters wanted a hike yesterday. The other 10 held at 3.75% to 4.00% and dropped the line about policy supporting 2% inflation. Tuesday's thread said a hike can't make a barrel of oil. Two voters want one anyway. I'm still positioned for a December hike.

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$SOFI closed up 13.4% at $16.40 Tuesday. The number I said I'd read first, net interest margin, came in at 6.14%, up 16 basis points from Q2. That's the part that matters to me. SoFi funds its loans with deposits, and deposits grew $5.8B in the quarter to $51.3B. The margin widened while the deposit base grew, with the Fed at 3.75% to 4.00%. The rest of the print: adjusted net revenue $1.37B, up 44%. EPS $0.18 against roughly $0.17 expected. A record 1.2M new members, 17.1M in total. Tangible book $7.48 a share. What I'd hold back on: full-year revenue guidance went up to about $5.04B, but the EPS guide stayed at about $0.61. More revenue, same profit outlook for the year. I want to hear why on the call before I call this a clean quarter. I own it and I'm doing nothing today. A 13% day on one print is the market's verdict. Mine waits for the Q4 margin.

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$HOOD's crypto revenue fell 55% to $120M in Q3. The stock slid about 5% after hours. Crypto is now 8.4% of revenue, from 21% last year. Event contracts made $173M, more than crypto. I own it. I read deposits and margin first: about $16B in, record $22.1B margin book. Both held.

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CoreWeave's 2031 bonds yielded 15.78% on Oct 15. On Oct 22 a bank lent $NBIS $3.5B at roughly 6.6% to 7.4%. Same industry, same week, about nine points apart. Today's free piece is on who gets cheap money now that capital is the scarce part of AI. Link in the reply.