The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, from 1%, the highest since 1995. It was minus 0.1% in 2024. Six hikes in two and a half years. The world's cheapest funding currency keeps getting dearer. Plenty of leveraged trades were sized on the old number.

JUST IN ⚖️ The Bank of Japan raises its rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.

🚨 JAPAN JUST HIT A HISTORIC CENTRAL BANK TRAP The Bank of Japan just raised interest rates to 1.25%, marking their highest level since 1995 Yet despite the rate hike, the Japanese Yen dropped lower against the US dollar To understand why this happened, you have to look at the central bank trap: WHY CAN’T JAPAN JUST KEEP RAISING RATES TO SAVE ITS CURRENCY? For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero so people could borrow money almost for free Investors worldwide borrowed cheap Yen and poured that capital into higher-yielding assets like US stocks, bonds, and crypto That giant trade became known as the global Yen Carry Trade Now Japan is caught between two bad choices: 1) Government debt servicing costs have jumped from ¥8.5 trillion in 2023 up to ¥13 trillion in 2026 2) US interest rates (3.75%–4.00%) still pay far more than Japanese rates (1.25%) If Japan smashes interest rates much higher to close that gap, it would immediately hit: > Government borrowing expenses > Corporate loans and business debt > Home mortgages across Japan > Japanese government bond prices > Overall economic growth That is why 1.25% is still cheap money, and why the Yen remains weak HOW THIS IMPACTS BITCOIN AND CRYPTO: As long as Japan avoids aggressive rate hikes, cheap Yen liquidity continues to flow into global risk assets like Bitcoin However, if currency volatility forces Japan into a surprise rate hike down the road, it could trigger a sudden unwinding of the Yen carry trade, creating short-term volatility spikes across crypto Japan cannot defend its currency without hurting its own economy, so they are choosing to tolerate a weaker Yen Bookmark this post. I will keep you updated as the macro structure develops

The Daily Market Report 18 Sep 2026 The tape is sitting on this morning’s Bank of Japan print. The board hiked a quarter point. First step in three months. Highest setting in three decades. That closes the week’s policy file after Wednesday’s Fed move and Thursday’s Bank of England hold. Threadneedle Street left Bank Rate unchanged. The vote was split. Three members wanted a hike. Bailey’s line: energy from the Middle East is still the inflation risk, and the longer it runs the more likely policy has to tighten. Thursday’s US book: housing starts slipped again. Philly Fed cooled off last month’s high but stayed in expansion. 🛢️Oil Barrel : on a third down session, still over a hundred. Saudi cargoes are moving off Oman after the East-West line was hit. Fresh Saudi-Houthi strikes printed Thursday. A desk watches energy because it is the file behind this week’s inflation talk and the rate moves. Major Events: • Industrial production — this morning • Chicago Fed activity index — Monday • Richmond Fed — Tuesday • Flash PMIs — Wednesday

US 10-YEAR YIELD - NO NEED TO SAY MORE Taking a step back, one can easily see that we have entered a rising interest rate environment, similar to the 1960-1980 period. The key difference? Debt levels. Indeed, with far higher debt-to-GDP levels in the Western world, aggressively rising interest rate seems complicated. Debt-to-GDP levels (1970 VS 2025): USA: 35% → 124% UK: 73% → 102% France: 20% → 116% Germany: 18% → 63% Japan: 11% → 207% In this context, interest rates are likely to rise, but remain below inflation, so that debt levels can stay sustainable for indebted states, leading to negative real interest rates → financial repression. In such an environment, bond holder are likely to be most penalized. Those forced to own them should prefer short durations over longer ones, to avoid locking low interest rates for long periods of time, and reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds at higher yields. While the situation is usually negative for stocks, commodity producers should be among the few winners of this period (together with commodities themselves). Value ones, due to their short duration, should be a far better option than growth ones, whose price is highly dependent on interest rates. How have you structured your portfolios for the years to come? Comment below. #OOTT $VOO $IWM $VTV

Rate cuts. Liquidity facilities. Emergency lending. Fiscal dominance. Currency debasement. Then suddenly your orange internet rocks are at $400,000.

The Fed raised rates. That was the headline. The lesson for traders came next. Wed: stocks fell as yields and the dollar rose. Thu: S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.7%, 10Y eased to 4.94%, dollar softened. Watch rates + USD + VIX + stocks. Trade confirmation, not headlines. 👀

25 bps hike does nothing, if rate hikes are way to control inflation than it has to be far higher like 75 bps However this time inflation is largely driven by Oil prices through an artificial shock instead of helicopter money, so for consumers it’s double whammy Basically Warsh has given Trump time to get war to close by showing that he can go against his wish and if he is not helped here, he will go all the way

The BOJ just pushed rates to 1.25% 🇯🇵📈 yet the yen weakened after the decision 👀⚡ That unusual reaction has Bitcoin traders watching global liquidity and the yen carry trade closely ₿🌐 If Japanese funding conditions shift, risk assets could feel the impact far beyond Japan 💰🔥 The big question is whether the yen becomes another signal for Bitcoin’s next move Could the BOJ become a hidden Bitcoin catalyst? 🤔🚀 Like ❤️ Comment 💬 and Follow ➕ for more crypto updates 🚀 #Bitcoin #BOJ #JapaneseYen #CryptoNews #GlobalLiquidity [bitcoin,btc,boj,japan,yen,liquidity,carrytrade,markets,crypto,interestrates]

The Fed's interest rate hike impacts the crypto market by reducing global dollar liquidity, which is generally bearish for crypto. Bitcoin and Ethereum will face pressure, while altcoins and memecoins will suffer even more. Bitcoin, as a non-yielding risk asset, becomes less attractive when U.S. Treasury yields rise, prompting capital to flow toward risk-free returns. Higher borrowing costs lead to leveraged positions being unwound, increasing the risk of cascading liquidations during downturns and amplifying price declines. A stronger dollar also raises the cost of buying crypto globally. However, markets trade on expectations, not just outcomes. If the news is already priced in, the actual announcement may trigger a relief rally; if the hike is more hawkish than expected, it could trigger an immediate sell-off. Interest rates are just one piece of the macro picture. ETF approvals, regulatory developments, or black swan events can easily overshadow them. Don’t base your decisions solely on rate hikes—manage your position size and avoid high leverage.