Bitcoin since 2020: 📈 187 up weeks 📉 170 down weeks A 52% win rate. Basically a coin flip. But up weeks averaged +6.4%. Down weeks averaged −5.0%. $7,386 → $78,233. 10.6×. A near coin flip win rate lead to over a 10x return. Bitcoin's upside explosiveness compounds over long time horizons:
Take the Top 6 Digital Credit tickers and put them against the Top 6 Bank Preferred stocks ever since STRK had its IPO. The cumulative dollar volume advantage is staggering. Digital Credit traded the bank preferreds' entire 21-month total in its last 69 trading days:
Bitcoin is the greatest monetary asymmetry I’ve ever encountered. A permanently scarce asset in a world whose capacity to create virtually everything else is accelerating. I think people are going to look back on this period and wonder how Bitcoin was ever available at these prices.
In 1971 the US national debt was $398 billion. Today it’s $40.6 TRILLION. It took 37 years to reach $10T. The next $10T took 9 years. The one after that took 4.4 years. We now add a new $10 trillion faster than most people pay off a car. I see the trend. I'm buying Bitcoin.
It's easy to be bullish on Bitcoin. The 4-year moving average of Bitcoin's realized price is the market’s smoothed cost basis. It is the slow, load-bearing floor under the entire asset, and it is still compounding at over 25% a year after a full decade of adoption. YoY growth of the 4Y realized price MA: 2014: $101.41 - baseline 2015: $173.28 - 70.87% 2016: $259.03 - 49.49% 2017: $575.93 - 122.34% 2018: $1,771.48 - 207.59% 2019: $2,954.05 - 66.76% 2020: $4,404.72 - 49.11% 2021: $8,872.92 - 101.44% 2022: $13,243.06 - 49.25% 2023: $17,061.38 - 28.83% 2024: $23,065.68 - 35.19% 2025: $30,509.71 - 32.27% 2026 (trailing 12M): $36,979.01 - 26.65% Three halvings, three “generational” crashes, and countless obituaries later, the smoothed floor still compounds at 25–35% a year:
More Bitcoin acquired.
Happy 18th Birthday to the Bitcoin white paper. I don't want to imagine a world without Bitcoin. Eternally grateful for Satoshi and his gift to mankind. bitcoin:native https://t.co/6tHmiLsQeY
At Strive, our long term objective is exclusively tied to stock returns. With $2.10B in preferred notional and $3.32B of Bitcoin, we have a leading amplification ratio of 63.4%. This is while Bitcoin is trading at approximately a 14.9% premium to its 200-week moving average. Over the last 10 years, Bitcoin has spent 2,986 of 3,652 days, 81.8% of the time, trading at a higher premium to its 200-week moving average than it is today. We have deliberately constructed our balance sheet to capitalize on the distribution of Bitcoin outcomes we believe is most likely over the long term, with substantial amplification positioned to translate Bitcoin appreciation into common stock returns.
The craziest part of a $6.3 BILLION crypto exchange hack is watching people blame Bitcoin. A centralized company failed to secure its infrastructure. Bitcoin’s decentralized network continued operating exactly as designed. The distinction is literally the entire point of Bitcoin.
Funnily enough, people continue to part with the asset with the greatest monetary properties in existence. Couldn't be me! Buying more $BTC here.
