OIL PRODUCERS VS COPPER MINERS The XLE-to-COPX ratio, which displays no long-term up or down trend (i.e. a good candidate for a mean reversion trade) remains in the lower end of its long-term cycle. At this stage, while a return to its recent top would imply a 61% outperformance for XLE relative to COPX, reaching its ATH would generate a 250% excess return. On the momentum's side, one could also notice that the ratio has recently been oversold (typical of a bottom) while its monthly MACD is now positive. Here is another reason why I am overweight energy relative to metals currently. $XLE $COPX $COPJ

NASDAQ 100 - CYCLE HIGH? While most passive investors pour money into Tech ETFs, hoping to repeat the 2010-2025 performance, might be time to remind that: • Equity factors, such as growth vs. value, follow cycles. • 2 thirds of the Nasdaq 100's return since 2010 have been due to P/E expansion rather than earning growth (responsible for the other third). In addition, the Nasdaq 100 (adjusted for money supply) has now reached 4σ above its long-term trend while the 2000's top happened at +5σ, and you get an idea of its current risk-reward in a rising rate environment. So, do I short the Nasdaq? No, because overpriced does not mean an asset will go down tomorrow. Do I stay away from it? Yes. Do I go to cash? No. Thankfully, many segments of the market aren't expensive at the moment (value, small-cap, most commodities) $QQQ $VOO $VTV

OIL PRODUCERS VS S&P500 As the oil-producers-to-S&P500 ratio shows, oil producers remain cheap compared to history relative to the S&P500. Indeed, at this level, the ratio would need to triple to reach its former high. This would imply a 200% outperformance of $XLE relative to $SPY. #OOTT

OIL VS S&P500 Despite its recent leg up, oil remains very affordable relative to the S&P500, as the oil-to-S&P500 ratio shows. Remember that higher oil prices imply a higher inflation, itself implying higher interest rates, leading to lower valuation multiples. Here is why most assets suffer during an energy spike besides commodity producers. In this context, commodity and commodity producers become the new hedge most portfolio need. $XLE #OOTT

EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS - LARGE BACKWARDATION Now 95% higher than when the note below was published, European natural gas remains in large backwardation. Indeed, the TTF futures now offer a +44% roll yield. This signals the large supply-demand mismatch, with buyers rushing to buy gas today, despite far higher prices than for later dates. #OOTT $XLE

URANIUM MINERS - FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR TECHNICAL CORRECTION? I explain in today's note: • Why did uranium miners underperform uranium itself. • Has the short-term risk-reward for miners flipped from negative to positive? • What is the outperformance vs. underperformance potential for miners. Link in comments below ↓ $URNM $URA $U.UN.TO

ON OIL "As a result, given today’s money supply, oil’s 2008’s and 1980’s tops would now be equivalent to $400 and $670, respectively." #OOTT $XLE

URANIUM MINERS - IS THE BOTTOM CLOSE? Uranium miners, after a 200% upside move (reaching 4 standard deviations above their long-term trend), have been correcting for a few months. Now trading 3σ below trend, the situation seems to have flipped from overbought to oversold. Indeed, while a return to its former top would generate a ~110% upside, reaching its former bottom would imply a limited downside of 14%. So, while none can precisely time a move (nor guess where the bottom will happen), one could say that uranium miner's risk-reward has become rather attractive at this point. $URNM $URA $UUUU

COPPER MINERS VS COPPER - NEGATIVE MOMENTUM While copper made a 63% upside move since 2025, copper miners have outperformed by 135% before receding over the past months. The copper-miner-to-copper ratio indeed shows that miners have underperformed by more than 30% the metal since their peak. While they are now cheaper, miners remain in a negative momentum for the moment, here is why I have recently taken some profits on them to reinforce my oil allocation. I remain positive copper (and copper miners) over the long-term however, this trade has a tactical nature (i.e. short-term), the goal being to buy copper miners back at lower prices taking profits on recent winners later. $COPX $XLE

OIL SERVICES VS OIL PRODUCERS Oil producers have now made a 4th bottom in 6 years relative to oil producers, as the oil-producers-to-oil-services ratio below shows. The difference now being that oil recently broke out. On a relative basis, oil services are becoming increasingly attractive relative to oil producers. $XLE & $IEZ used as proxies.