1. Summary
Although the cryptocurrency market experienced a correction this week, the overall risk remains controllable. On-chain data indicates that 108k–109k is a crucial support level, and a drop below 107.4k could trigger further panic. Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance remains around 58%, showing that funds still have confidence in the core asset. In contrast, ETH has performed relatively resiliently during the correction, with continuous capital inflows, reinforcing its status as an altcoin bellwether. The overall market capitalization of altcoins has remained stable amidst Bitcoin's correction, and market sentiment is significantly better than in similar situations before. Market trading volume has remained high without significant amplification, indicating that selling pressure has not caused systemic panic. Overall, the capital structure is stable, mainstream assets have strong absorptive capacity, fear of selling pressure is prominent, and the probability of market volatility is relatively high. If the overall market stabilizes, market sentiment is expected to rebound, and altcoins may experience a corrective rally.
2. The core PCE meets expectations,"Maintain the path of interest rate cuts in September"
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The core PCE met expectations, solidifying the path of interest rate cuts in September;
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Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor raises concerns about the independence of the Fed;
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NVIDIA's financial report cooled down the market;
8.26 - US President Trump: Dismiss Fed Governor Cook
8.26 - US President Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries imposing digital taxes
8.27 - NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations, but revenue outlook was slightly flat
8.28 - The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP in the United States for the second quarter was 3.3%, higher than expected
8.28 - The revised annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index for the second quarter was 2.5%, lower than expected
8.29 - The core PCE annual rate in the United States recorded 2.9%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value
8.29 - US judge did not make a ruling on the case of Trump's dismissal of Cook in court, and Cook will temporarily remain in his position
8.29 - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August in the United States was 58.2, lower than expected
8.29 - The final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for August was 4.8%, lower than expected
9.1 - The US M2 money supply has reached a record high of $22.12 trillion
CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary
|
MEETING DATE
|
300-325
|
325-350
|
350-375
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375-400
|
400-425
|
425-450
|
|
2025/9/17
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
89.7%
|
10.3%
|
|
2025/10/29
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.0%
|
46.0%
|
49.0%
|
5.0%
|
|
2025/12/10
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
37.5%
|
48.4%
|
13.2%
|
0.9%
|
3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance
3.1 The US stock market has been experiencing low volatility, Investors are cautious
The positive effect of the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut quickly subsided this week, coupled with Nvidia's earnings guidance failing to effectively reinforce the narrative of AI, leading to a continued sell-off in technology stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively, while the small-cap index, the Russell 2000, rose 0.19%, continuing to outperform the broader market, reflecting the shift of funds from technology stocks to higher-risk assets amid the backdrop of impending interest rate cuts and AI valuation issues. Meanwhile, the VIX index remained low near 15, with cautious market sentiment.
Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends
3.2 Bitcoin has experienced a three-week consecutive correction, Market sentiment has turned cautious
This week, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq futures index continued to maintain a strong correlation. Due to the drag imposed by weak technology stocks, the overall crypto market was under pressure. Bitcoin fell 4.60% for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, with its trading range remaining between $108,200 and $113,600.
This week marks the second week of Bitcoin's correction after reaching a high of $124,000, with a 13.8% retracement from the peak. This has sparked concerns in the market about a deeper correction in the current market trend, with the Fear & Greed Index hitting its lowest point in nearly two months.
Figure 2: BTC Price Trends
3.3 The trading sentiment in the market is stable,Risk appetite spreads to Altcoins
As of August 31st, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrency assets stood at $3.7903 trillion, marking a week-on-week decrease of 4.58%. The overall market has been under pressure amidst a correction. The total trading volume amounted to $1.25243 trillion, slightly declining by 0.03% compared to the previous week. During the downturn, trading volume did not further expand, with active turnover but a manageable level of panic. Structurally, Bitcoin's trading volume saw a slight decrease while its market share remained at 38%. Altcoins exhibited stable trading activity, yet there is still nearly 70% growth potential compared to the high point reached in December.
Figure 3：Trading Volume of BTC and Altcoins
4. Crypto Trend Analysis
4.1 The turnover on the BTC chain is active, Short-term panic selling intensifies
On-chain data shows that approximately 584,000 BTC were transferred this week, and the activity level of on-chain chip turnover remains high:
The reduction of cost chips below $100,000 amounted to 194,000 pieces, and the profit-making chip reduction increased by approximately 90,000 BTC distributed this week. There were significant sell-offs near the cost points of 19k, 80k-83k, and 98k;
In the 113K–120K range, a total of approximately 326,000 tokens were reduced, and panic selling of loss-making positions exerted pressure on the market.
Meanwhile, 584,000 new chips were added in the $107K–113K range, with 290,000 added in the $108K–109K range. $108K serves as an important support level for the current price.
Overall, as the price of BTC continues to correct, market panic is intensifying. Both long-term profit chips and short-term loss chips jointly form the main selling pressure. Market panic is escalating, and buying pressure is becoming increasingly prominent.
Figure 4: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution
4.2 Market Summary and Outlook
Although the cryptocurrency market experienced a correction this week, the overall risk remains controllable. On-chain data indicates that 108k–109k is a crucial support level, and a drop below 107.4k could trigger further panic. Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance remains around 58%, indicating that investors still have confidence in the core asset. In contrast, ETH has shown relative resilience during the correction, with continuous capital inflows, reinforcing its status as a bellwether for Altcoins. The overall market capitalization of Altcoins has remained stable amidst Bitcoin's correction, and market sentiment is significantly better than in similar situations before. The market trading volume has remained high without significant amplification, indicating that selling pressure has not caused systemic panic. Overall, the capital structure is stable, mainstream assets have strong absorptive capacity, fear of selling pressure is prominent, and there is a high probability of short-term market volatility. If the market stabilizes, sentiment is expected to improve, and Altcoins may experience a corrective rebound.
Figure 5: BTC Chip Supply Situation
4.3 Institutional shareholding increases have slowed down and ETFs have been sluggish, leading to a weakening of market buying momentum
On-chain and institutional disclosure data show that physical institutions have cumulatively increased their holdings of 3,166 BTC this week, with listed companies contributing 2,971, accounting for a whopping 93.84%. However, the overall increase in holdings decreased by 51.7% compared to the previous week, indicating a significant weakening in institutional buying momentum. In terms of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the net inflow for the entire week was approximately $440 million. Although it broke away from the previous net outflow, the volume remained at a recent low. It is worth noting that in August, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $750 million, marking the first monthly outflow since April. The average monthly net inflow for the previous four months amounted to $4.65 billion, reflecting that ETF funds have entered a distinctly weak phase.
Figure 6: BTC Buyer Analysis
4.4 ETH has demonstrated relative strength amidst the downtrend
Although ETH experienced a pullback along with BTC this week, retracing nearly 14% from its historical high, the ETH/BTC ratio still hovered above 0.04, indicating that it has a stronger capital preference compared to BTC during the downturn. This week, the ETH spot ETF achieved a net inflow of $1.08 billion, corresponding to approximately 235,000 ETH, while ETH reserve companies purchased a total of 335,000 ETH. It is evident that even during the market downturn, the buying momentum of ETH remains solid, demonstrating relative strength.
Figure 7: ETH Price Trends
5. Regulatory Trends
America
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The US CFTC has issued guidance on the registration framework for foreign trading platforms, providing regulatory clarity for non-US trading platforms to re-enter the US market
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) discusses traditional asset tokenization and regulatory framework with Kraken
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Financial Times: US banks are lobbying to prevent stablecoins from paying interest to customers
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U.S. Secretary of Commerce: The Department of Commerce will begin publishing statistical data on the blockchain
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Global regulators urge the US SEC to strengthen supervision of tokenized stocks
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The US CFTC plans to expand cryptocurrency regulation by adopting the Nasdaq surveillance system
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The United States plans to integrate GDP data into blockchain technology, with the goal of covering nine blockchains including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana
Asia
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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Hopes to leverage Web3 to drive Japan's economic and social transformation
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The Japanese Finance Minister stated that an appropriate environment will be created for cryptocurrency assets
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Japanese Prime Minister: Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies represent a "once-in-a-century opportunity"
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Proposal for Japan's 2026 tax reform: Reducing the tax rate on cryptocurrencies and expanding the scope of application of NISA accounts
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Leaders of Japan's "National Democratic Party" and "Three Lives Party" discuss the urgency of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve
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The Bank of Korea proposes to provide central bank support and guarantees for stablecoins
6. Industry Trends
The stablecoin ecosystem is expanding rapidly, with regulation and innovation moving forward in parallel
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Financial Times: US banks are lobbying to prevent stablecoins from paying interest to customers
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BIT Mining launches USD stablecoin DOLAI on Solana
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The Bank of Korea proposes to provide central bank support and guarantees for stablecoins
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Circle has no plans to issue a stablecoin denominated in Korean won
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Tether announced that it will launch USDT on RGB
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Circle and Paxos are testing a brand-new cryptocurrency issuance verification technology
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Circle and Finastra Partner to Promote Banks' Use of Stablecoins for Cross-Border Payments
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Mastercard and Circle expand their partnership to facilitate USDC and EURC settlements in EEMEA
The approval process for ETFs is slow, with the pledge function becoming a new focus, and institutional investors continue to increase their holdings
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SEC postpones decision on Canary spot PENGU ETF and Grayscale spot Cardano ETF applications
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SEC postpones decision on adding collateralization feature to Grayscale's spot Ethereum ETF
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21Shares applies for the Sei ETF and plans to explore the staking function, while the SEC continues to review Altcoin ETFs
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Bitmine has increased its holdings by over 190,000 ETH in the past week, bringing its total ETH holdings to 1.71 million
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KindlyMD Announces $5 Billion Equity Plan to Advance Bitcoin Treasury Strategy
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Goldman Sachs currently holds $470 million worth of Bitcoin
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Metaplanet of Japan announced a secondary share offering, intending to acquire an additional $837 million worth of Bitcoin
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Guotai Junan International Launches Cryptocurrency Trading Services
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Hyperscale Data plans to raise $125 million through the sale of common stock to purchase BTC and XRP
Other
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MetaMask introduces social login feature, supporting the creation and recovery of wallets using Google or Apple accounts
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Hyperliquid announces optimization of the pre-market perpetual contract mark price calculation method to enhance system robustness
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The size of the Ethereum staking exit queue has reached a record high of $4.6 billion
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The Thai government's tokenized security, G-Token, will be listed on KuCoin
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The U.S. Department of Commerce and Chainlink have collaborated to upload U.S. government macroeconomic data to the blockchain, and have chosen Pyth Network for on-chain economic data verification and distribution
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Caroline Pham, the Acting Chair of the CFTC, will join MoonPay
7. Next week's outlook
SEP 2025 Crypto Calendar
SEP2025 CryptoCalendar
September 1: U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day; WLFI will launch on the Ethereum mainnet, with early investors unlocking 20% of tokens; the Ethereum Fusaka mainnet will release Holesky and Sepolia client versions; Starknet v0.14.0 is set to go live on the mainnet; SUI will unlock 1.25% of its circulating supply, valued at approximately $145 million.
September 2: US August final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; US August ISM Manufacturing PMI; ENA unlocks a circulation share of 1.25%, worth approximately $145 million
September 3: Ondo Finance will launch an on-chain US stock trading platform on September 3rd
September 4: The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; ADP Employment Report for August in the United States; Taipei Blockchain Week 2025
September 5: The United States releases non-farm payroll data for August; IMX unlocks 1.27% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $12.8 million
8. Reference
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defillama.com
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coinmarketcap.com
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tradingview.com
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cryptoslam.io
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token.unlocks.app/
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dune.com
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itez.com/events
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cryptorank.io/
