Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Above $4B: YES 48c (2.08 decimal odds) Lighter announced their raise today of $68m at a $1.5B val. This implies $37.5 per Lighter point. So why do I think we will se Lighter FDV above 4b one day after launch? First of all, I don't think Lighter is a sell at TGE. Lighter has huge backing from the Ethereum community and is the most profitable L2. While people assume Lighter to just be a Hyperliquid copycat, Lighter is more than that and also offers other products, eg. forex and commodities. Spot market coming soon and it is likely we will Lighter perps on Robinhood down the line. Right now Lighter is the biggest perp DEX in terms of 24h volume and 30 day volume, even though HL has higher OI. Also the biggest FX market across all dexes (65m OI). When the token goes live in December, I expect a initial sell off in the first hours due to the 25-30% airdrop before OGs will accumulate, which is why I think that one day after the launch the price would be higher. $4b should be very possible, and I give it 60% chance of happening, in other words there is value in betting above $4b FDV here. Btw, the fundraise was led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and the fintech investor Ribbit Capital. Robinhood, which rarely makes venture investments is also in. Peter Thiel won't accept a failed investment. $10b long term is programmed.