U.S.-Iran Memorandum Text Finalized, Gold Surpasses $4,300, Oil Drops to Two-Month Low

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On June 15, spot gold surged more than 1% to above $4,300 per ounce, as interest rate expectations softened following the finalized U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding set for June 19. U.S. crude oil dropped over 4% to a two-month low of $80.25 per barrel. On-chain data revealed increased activity in gold-related assets as traders responded to geopolitical and monetary developments.
CoinTelegraph reports — During early Asian trading hours on June 15 (Beijing Time), spot gold opened more than 1% higher, reaching a high above $4,300 per ounce, and is currently trading around $4,281 per ounce, supported by reduced expectations for rate hikes following the completion of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, set to be signed on June 19.
CoinMarketCap APP reports — On Monday (June 15, Beijing Time), during early Asian trading, spot gold opened more than 1% higher, reaching a high above $4,300 per ounce, and is currently trading around $4,281 per ounce, supported by reduced expectations for rate hikes following the completion of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, set to be signed on June 19. As a result, U.S. crude oil opened more than 4% lower, briefly touching a two-month low of $80.25 per barrel, and is now trading around $81.10 per barrel.

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Focus on the day's key events



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Stock market


U.S. stocks closed higher last Friday, with the Dow rising 0.7%, the S&P 500 up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3%, primarily driven by investor optimism over expectations of a peace agreement between Iran and the United States.

On its first day of trading, shares of SpaceX, led by Musk, surged 19.2% to $160.95, reaching a market capitalization of $2.1 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in Wall Street history. However, other aerospace stocks that had risen in anticipation of SpaceX’s IPO, such as Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, and Planet Labs, all declined sharply on the same day.

Adobe fell 6.8% following the departure of its CFO. The market is also focusing on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with traders pricing in a 55% chance of an interest rate hike before December. Despite the three major indices rising approximately 7% last week, U.S. stock funds experienced their first weekly net outflow in three weeks.

Gold Market


Gold closed last Friday at $4,216.83 per ounce, but declined 2.56% for the week due to pressure from interest rate hike expectations, marking its second consecutive weekly drop.

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The market is monitoring the situation between the U.S. and Iran, with reports suggesting that both sides may sign a peace memorandum as early as Sunday, though Iran has denied these speculations.

Traders now estimate the probability of a U.S. interest rate hike before December has risen to 57%, following data showing that U.S. producer price inflation in May exceeded expectations and consumer inflation breached 4%.

This week’s Fed meeting (June 16–17) will be Walsh’s first as chair, and markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged. UBS has lowered its gold price forecast, warning that a delayed Fed rate cut could push gold prices down to the $3,850–4,000 per ounce range in the short term.

In other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.2% to $68.14, and palladium gained 0.7%, with both posting weekly gains; platinum fell 0.8% to $1,706.90, recording a weekly decline.

Oil market


Oil prices closed lower last Friday, with Brent crude falling 2.64% to $86.74 per barrel, the lowest since early March; US crude dropped 2.46% to $84.29 per barrel.

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Driven by increased expectations among traders of an imminent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran. A Western source said a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the Gulf War could be signed as early as Sunday, with Geneva as a possible location, but Iran’s foreign minister stated that the memorandum has not yet been signed and its contents may still change.

Last Thursday, U.S. President Trump withdrew the threat of airstrikes against Iran, with negotiations set to focus on nuclear and economic issues. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 forecast for the average Brent crude oil price to $80 per barrel due to increased supply and declining demand, but expects oil prices to exceed the 2025 average.

OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day for the second consecutive time, while raising its 2027 demand growth forecast to 1.73 million barrels per day.

Forex


The US Dollar Index held steady at 99.75 last Friday, but posted a weekly decline, as markets closely monitor US-Iran negotiations that could end the Middle East conflict.

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The euro was little changed at $1.15725, hovering near a one-week high and on track for a weekly gain, after the European Central Bank announced its first interest rate hike in three years.

The USD/JPY rose 0.18% to 160.225 yen, remaining near a key level that could prompt intervention by the Bank of Japan.

The British pound held steady at $1.34145, with market focus centered on Iran nuclear negotiations. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% this week, but believe the probability of a rate hike before year-end exceeds 50%.

In addition, SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO has also influenced capital flows and market sentiment. When tensions rise in Iran, investors tend to buy the safe-haven U.S. dollar; when peace negotiations make progress, they sell the dollar and shift toward risk assets such as stocks.

International News



Iran's National Security Council: The text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is completed, to be signed on June 19

The Iranian National Security Council announced that the text of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States has been finalized. The council stated that both parties will formally sign the memorandum on June 19. Starting from the evening of June 15, all combat and military operations on all fronts (including Lebanon) will immediately and permanently cease. The maritime blockade against Iran will also be fully and immediately lifted. The council further noted that negotiations for the final agreement will only commence after the other party has genuinely fulfilled the commitments outlined in the memorandum of understanding.

Disclosure of core terms of the draft US-Israel memorandum of understanding

All fronts shall immediately achieve a permanent ceasefire, including the Lebanon front; the United States commits to non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs and respects the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran; the United States shall fully lift its maritime blockade on Iran within 30 days; the United States commits to withdrawing its military forces deployed in the regions surrounding Iran; the Strait of Hormuz shall be managed by Iran, with navigation fully restored within 30 days; sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and related derivatives shall be suspended, allowing Iran full access to its frozen funds and assets; the United States and its allies must submit to Iran a reconstruction assistance package totaling no less than $300 billion; both sides shall engage in 60 days of negotiations to finalize an agreement on nuclear issues, fully lifting all U.S. primary and secondary sanctions, as well as sanctions under relevant United Nations Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions; Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty and pledges not to develop nuclear weapons; during the 60-day negotiation period, the United States commits to not deploying additional troops in the region or imposing new sanctions; during the 60-day negotiation period, $24 billion of Iran’s frozen assets shall be unfrozen, with half of this amount disbursed to Iran prior to the commencement of negotiations; both sides shall establish a dedicated mechanism to monitor implementation of the agreement; the final agreement shall be confirmed by a United Nations Security Council resolution; the preconditions for initiating final negotiations are: half of Iran’s frozen assets have been unfrozen, sanctions related to oil have been suspended, and the maritime blockade has been lifted. The final agreement shall cover only three matters: the disposition of enriched materials and uranium enrichment activities, the lifting of sanctions, and Iran’s economic reconstruction plan. Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups are entirely excluded from the negotiation agenda.

Iran unfreezes $25 billion, Hormuz Strait reopens

An Iranian senior official stated that, according to the draft memorandum, Tehran agreed not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons, while the United States agreed to unfreeze $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets through direct cash transfers, regional cooperation, and the establishment of financial credit lines. The official said the United States has agreed in the draft memorandum that Iran will dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on its territory, with specific mechanisms to be discussed over the next 60 days. The United States will lift oil sanctions on Iran for a specified period, allowing Iran to sell oil and receive oil revenues. According to the draft memorandum, Iran will immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all merchant vessels, and the United States will lift the maritime blockade.

Israeli officials: The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding will "endanger Israel's security interests"

Channel 12 of Israel reported on the 13th, citing multiple anonymous senior Israeli officials, that the memorandum of understanding potentially being signed by the United States and Iran would “endanger Israel’s security interests.” The report quoted these officials as saying that the imminent U.S.-Iran MOU indicates the United States has agreed to Iran’s “key conditions,” and added that Iran “would not agree to this agreement without reason.” The report stated that senior Israeli officials and some experts believe the terms of the memorandum of understanding would “endanger Israel’s security interests.” These officials also noted that, based on the framework of the MOU, Iran has agreed to discuss its nuclear program only after the formal end of hostilities and upon fulfillment of a series of other conditions, including the unfreezing of Iran’s frozen assets. (Xinhua)

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Potential understanding between Iran and the U.S. is only for continued dialogue, not a final agreement

On the 13th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said that any potential understanding between Iran and the United States would be aimed solely at facilitating further dialogue between the two sides, not at reaching a final agreement; unfreezing Iran’s frozen assets would be an indispensable part of any Iran-U.S. understanding. According to the Iran Student News Agency, Baghaei made the remarks during a meeting with media representatives, stating that Iran’s current priority is to end hostilities and regional tensions on all fronts, and that it is not currently delving into details of the nuclear issue. He added that the only path to regional security is the elimination of foreign military presence in the region. (Xinhua News Agency)

U.S. President Trump: The Strait of Hormuz will open after the agreement is signed on Friday
President Trump stated that this landmark agreement will bring peace and security to the entire region. He noted that previous U.S. presidents had attempted to reach peace agreements with Iran but all failed; his own prior efforts had also ended in failure. Trump said that for the first time, leaders in the region have found a president capable of helping them achieve genuine peace. He also announced that, following the signing of the agreement on Friday, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened for oil transportation, and oil and gas will once again flow to the region and around the world.

South Korea and Saudi Arabia sign agreement to cooperate in the energy sector

On Sunday, South Korea’s Ministry of Industry stated that, in response to recent global supply chain fluctuations, South Korea and Saudi Arabia have signed an agreement to cooperate in energy resources such as crude oil and natural gas. South Korea’s Minister of Industry, Kim Jeong-gwan, departed on Saturday for a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia, during which he signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman to establish a framework for long-term cooperation on critical energy supplies. The South Korean Ministry of Industry said the cooperation document covers multiple areas, including crude oil reserves, oil pipeline infrastructure development, and the use of artificial intelligence and digital technologies to drive innovation in the energy sector.

SK Hynix plans to triple its chip wafer production capacity

Last week, Choi Tae-won, Chairman of South Korea’s SK Group, revealed that its memory chip subsidiary, SK Hynix, plans to triple its chip wafer production capacity by 2034 to meet the surging demand driven by artificial intelligence. While he expressed strong confidence in AI-related demand and investments, he also acknowledged that stock market volatility may persist for some time. SK Hynix’s shares have recently experienced sharp fluctuations: on the 10th local time, they plunged by approximately 7.5%, following a surge of over 15% the previous day. Additionally, SK Hynix has confirmed plans to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) this year to list in the United States. Analysts believe the company aims to broaden its investor base by capitalizing on the AI boom. (CCTV Finance)

Domestic News


Yiwu's national trend products have sold out

Recently, sales of Dragon Boat Festival goods have surged at the Yiwu International Trade City, with traditional seasonal items such as colored ropes and sachets becoming especially popular. Merchants report that sales of Dragon Boat Festival-related small commodities typically begin to spike in early May each year, with steadily increasing foot traffic and order volumes. Compared with traditional designs in previous years, many of this year’s Festival products feature distinct national trend and intangible cultural heritage elements. At one store, a series incorporating Song brocade—a national-level intangible cultural heritage—has become a bestseller. One merchant noted that within a short time, over 100,000 pieces featuring Song brocade motifs had already been sold. CCTV Business reporters learned that Yiwu’s Dragon Boat Festival small commodities have long moved beyond the confines of seasonal holiday sales; diverse, culturally inspired designs now cater to everyday consumer needs, shifting from “seasonal popularity” to “year-round demand.” Merchants are continuously expanding their product ranges and innovating in design, enabling traditional folk culture to reach global markets through these small commodities. (CCTV Business)

Cui Dongshu: In May, China's total production of power and other batteries reached 192 GWh, a 38% year-over-year increase.

Cui Dongshu of the China Passenger Car Association stated that in May, China’s total output of power and other batteries reached 192 GWh, a 38% year-over-year increase; from January to May, the total output of power and other batteries amounted to 863 GWh, up 30% year-over-year. This year, battery growth has declined from over 69% to 30%, as demand for power batteries has weakened, leading to a gradual slowdown in battery demand. In May 2026, lithium battery installations in vehicles reached 72 GWh, up 26% year-over-year. From January to May 2026, cumulative lithium battery installations in vehicles totaled 259 GWh, up 7% year-over-year. In 2025, the proportion of power battery production installed in vehicles remained at 44%; in May 2026, this proportion dropped to 38%, with a 38% installation rate for ternary batteries and a 37% installation rate for lithium iron phosphate batteries. The current primary energy density range for pure electric vehicle batteries is between 125 and 160 Wh/kg. Notably, in April–May 2026, batteries in the 140–160 Wh/kg range accounted for 46% of installations, an increase of 14 percentage points year-over-year.

The high-end marine steel sector is booming, with domestic marine steel orders booked through 2028

In recent years, China's automobile exports have grown rapidly, driving sustained demand for car carrier ships. These high-end vessels require higher steel precision and utilize ultra-thin plates to strictly control the ship’s center of gravity and ensure sailing stability. A representative from a steel enterprise in Nanjing told reporters that this year’s total output of shipbuilding steel, including crack-arresting steel, wide and thin plates for cruise ships, high-strength ship plates, and polar low-temperature ship plates, is expected to exceed 2 million tons, with long-term orders already scheduled through 2028. Strong downstream demand has pushed up prices for high-end steel, with the average market price for ship plates rising from around 4,100 yuan per ton to approximately 4,300 yuan. To hedge against raw material price fluctuations, shipbuilders frequently adopt price-locking models; although high-end steel involves large volumes and high added value, profit margins remain substantial. Experts noted that in recent years, Chinese steel enterprises have developed multiple grades of steel tailored for different applications, with quality indicators such as stability, uniformity, and thickness tolerance reaching internationally leading levels, supporting the transformation and upgrading of China’s shipbuilding equipment. (CCTV Finance)
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