The perpetual contract SPCX, linked to SpaceX on Hyperliquid, rebounded on Friday, with its price returning to the $176–$183 range, a notable recovery from its earlier weekly low of approximately $153. The market has accordingly raised its expectations for SpaceX’s first-day listing performance.
Implied premium returns to approximately 36%.
At around $183, the SPCX price represents approximately a 36% premium over SpaceX’s IPO price of $135. This level exceeds the implied premium of about 16% on Wednesday but remains below the peak of nearly 60% reached in May.
CoinDesk previously noted that SPCX had been steadily declining over the past few weeks, reflecting that while traders still expect SpaceX to trade above its offering price after its IPO, expectations for a significant first-day surge have clearly cooled. The latest rebound indicates that this discount is narrowing.
Hyperliquid's open interest and trading volume remain high.
SPCX had an open interest of approximately $216 million on Hyperliquid during early Friday trading, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million, indicating high activity ahead of its listing.
This pricing does not represent SpaceX's actual common stock, but rather reflects the crypto market's expectations for its first-day listing performance. Therefore, price fluctuations primarily reflect shifts in trading sentiment and short-term speculation.
Other shadow markets also strengthened simultaneously.
Beyond Hyperliquid, other shadow markets are also sending more optimistic signals. According to Bloomberg, derivative pricing from IG International implies a valuation of approximately $2.4 trillion for SpaceX, over 35% higher than the $1.77 trillion implied by its IPO pricing.
On Polymarket, traders assign approximately a 70% probability that SpaceX’s market capitalization at the close of its first trading day will exceed $2 trillion. This indicates that expectations across multiple informal markets are converging once again.
Overall, SPCX has rebounded from this week’s low, indicating that crypto traders have revised upward their expectations for SpaceX’s first-day price surge compared to recent days. Meanwhile, pricing on IG International and Polymarket also suggests renewed market enthusiasm for betting on its first-day trading performance.