BlockBeats news, June 12: Today, SpaceX set its IPO price at $135, corresponding to an approximate valuation of $1.77 trillion. Predictions from prominent institutions and analysts regarding its post-listing performance are as follows:
Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens: Morningstar has set SpaceX’s fair value at approximately $780 billion, about 55% lower than its IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion, concluding that shares are overvalued under nearly any scenario in the near to medium term. While initial trading may see support or even a brief price increase due to extremely limited float and rapid index inclusion (e.g., Nasdaq 100), the overall recommendation is for investors to avoid chasing the stock at opening, and instead wait for the hype to subside before entering at a lower price—offering a better chance of more attractive long-term returns.
New York University professor and "Godfather of Valuation," Aswath Damodaran: Estimates SpaceX’s equity value at $1.25–1.3 trillion, significantly below its IPO pricing. Aswath believes the current valuation is too high—he would not buy immediately (but also would not short). He anticipates a substantial post-IPO pullback, similar to Facebook or Uber (which both dropped over 50%), and advises waiting for a lower entry point. SpaceX’s AI business makes its story more ambitious but also increases volatility, potentially pressuring its near-term performance.
CNBC's Mad Money host Jim Cramer: Cautious about fundamentals, finding it difficult to evaluate a $2 trillion valuation at roughly 100 times sales. Predicts a massive opening surge, potentially doubling to a $4 trillion market cap, driven by retail FOMO, extremely low float, and passive index fund inflows—but warns this could be a speculative bubble with destructive potential for the market. Strongly advises retail investors to avoid chasing gains, as ongoing business losses may lead to a sharp correction.
Timothy Horan, analyst at Oppenheimer, an independent investment bank in New York: Assigns an Outperform rating with a target price of $190, representing approximately a 41% upside from the $135 IPO price. Strongly bullish on SpaceX’s vertical integration across rockets, Starlink, chips, and AI, projecting a total addressable market of $10 trillion by 2035. Despite potential volatility, believes the stock will find support and achieve significant upside following its debut, with a highly optimistic long-term growth outlook.
John Blank, Chief Equity Strategist at Zacks, an independent investment research firm in Chicago: Following SpaceX’s IPO, a significant downside is expected; if the stock price declines by 40–60% within months, it could trigger a cascade of downward earnings revisions. John views this as a potential market top signal, with short-term performance likely under pressure, and advises investors to remain cautious and wait for clearer fundamental validation.
University of Florida IPO expert Jay Ritter: The "Elon Musk effect" will lead to high volatility. With current high valuations, there is substantial downside risk due to the dual-class share structure granting Musk extreme control, and capital may be prioritized for long-term projects like Mars rather than direct shareholder returns. The stock may face adjustment after listing, and investors should remain alert to governance and capital allocation risks.
Daniel Newma, CEO of the technology analysis firm Future Group: If investors take a five-year perspective, SpaceX will perform exceptionally well; a $135 price tag may seem expensive after one year but will appear cheap after five years. Daniel plans to make a small purchase on the opening day to guard against short-term misjudgments, but expects better entry opportunities within the first 12 months, and remains highly bullish on the long-term growth potential of Starlink and AI.
Los Angeles Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives: SpaceX’s IPO is a “watershed” event for the market, and he remains generally optimistic, with an over 80% probability that it will merge with Tesla by 2027. Dan believes that, following its debut, SpaceX is well-positioned to benefit from long-term narratives around AI and the space ecosystem, with strong demand from both retail and institutional investors, making its performance highly anticipated.