BlockBeats report, June 10: Yesterday, SemiAnalysis, an independent research firm focused on semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and data centers, released a report stating that two key technological pathways for AI data centers have experienced significant delays. This report has been identified as one of the primary reasons for the major correction in U.S. AI-related stocks yesterday.
Regarding this report, a group of prominent analysts criticized it as "outdated and alarmist." BlockBeats has compiled the following:
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity posted a strong critique and rejection of the research report, deeming it unreliable; she is more inclined to trust the consistent reassurances from industry players regarding their accelerated production timelines: Scale-Out CPO will gradually ramp up starting in the second half of this year, while Scale-Up CPO is set to begin in the second half of 2027, with major growth expected in 2028.
Newly prominent U.S. stock analyst KawzInvests (@KawzInvests) emphasizes that photonic communication extends far beyond CPO, with the pluggable transceiver market reaching $26 billion in 2026 and growing to $45 billion by 2030. KawzInvests believes the report’s assertion of large-scale CPO production could accelerate the adoption of NPO technology. Additionally, the LPO/LRO market is projected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2026 to $5 billion in 2030, while OCS expands from $1 billion to over $4 billion. The overall market size remains unchanged, with high-speed interconnect demands in AI data centers continuing to drive long-term growth in photonics.
Prominent U.S. stock KOL Herman Jin (@ShanghaoJin) holds a similar view. He believes the aforementioned report’s information is severely outdated, but CPO/800V is merely a matter of time and does not hinder overall progress. He also reiterates the importance of demand on the model side, stating, “As long as models don’t get dumber (other so-called negative factors are irrelevant); excessive market focus on 2027 expectations is unnecessary.”